Firing up again in the South........

#1 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Wed May 26, 2004 9:27 am

Caribbean this morning. Thoughts anyone?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

Website · #2 Postby **Brent** » Wed May 26, 2004 10:02 am

PERSISTENCE is what is needed. If it's just a daytime flareup it's nothing. The blob has to sustain itself for awhile to have a chance.

Rainband · #3 Postby **Rainband** » Wed May 26, 2004 10:20 am

Seems like it would be an EPAC problem if anything :wink:

Typhoon_Willie · #4 Postby **Typhoon_Willie** » Wed May 26, 2004 10:27 am

Yes after all they were just thunderstorms that got their start over land and then moved out over the Caribbean. Persistence is the key!

#5 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed May 26, 2004 2:09 pm

TROPICAL WAVE, & AT THIS MOMENT, NOTHING MORE.

SANDY DELGADO

Josephine96 · #6 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed May 26, 2004 2:27 pm

Sandy.. Turn off your caps lol..

But seriously.. if the storms do persist.. It may develop down the road.. But if they fizzle and then redevelop and keep doing that cycle, I wouldn't give it much of a shot

#7 Postby **wxman57** » Wed May 26, 2004 2:29 pm

That's one of the main early-season development areas, so it's definitely an area to watch. There's an MJO tracking across the west-central Pacific now, so we might expect a storm or two in the eastern Pacific over the next 7-10 days then perhaps development in the western Caribbean or GOM around the second week of June.

#8 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed May 26, 2004 2:32 pm

Well, you may be right, but I said "AT THIS MOMENT", which means "RIGHT NOW". In any of my words I didn't mention anything about the possible future. Sorry if you misunderstood my short words.

Sandy Delgado

#9 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Wed May 26, 2004 3:56 pm

Thanks wxman57, good analysis as always.

Steve H. · #10 Postby **Steve H.** » Wed May 26, 2004 4:51 pm

In fact, some of the models show low pressure down in the SW Caribbean during the next two weeks, and the GFS shows a low in the GOM 8-)

Rainband · #11 Postby **Rainband** » Thu May 27, 2004 7:34 am

Steve H. wrote:In fact, some of the models show low pressure down in the SW Caribbean during the next two weeks, and the GFS shows a low in the GOM

GFS still showing the low..but it's further east now :wink:

Stormsfury · #12 Postby **Stormsfury** » Thu May 27, 2004 7:55 am

Johnathan, yeah, it's the GFS ... :lol:

Website · #13 Postby **Brent** » Thu May 27, 2004 8:20 am

Stormsfury wrote:Johnathan, yeah, it's the GFS ...

LOL!

Rainband · #14 Postby **Rainband** » Thu May 27, 2004 3:27 pm

Stormsfury wrote:Johnathan, yeah, it's the GFS ...

I know I know. :roll:

Actually the GFS has done better than most other models this past winter according to our NWS discussions and they said the same thing...but not using the word S*** :lol:

about the gfs. They seemed shocked. At any rate it's only one model..if the others show something then I will watch a bit more closely. 8-)

Firing up again in the South........

Firing up again in the South........

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