New low soon to form. New TCFP Issued.

[Wnghs2007]

Nhc makes new outlook on Possible Tropical Cyclone Formation were the new low will form. As many have stated the old low is elongating just like the NHC said it would by the rising pressures.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/danger_atlbw.gif



Below shows a picture of the current low weakening and then reforming in the atlantic. With Alex possibly forming after that.

http://files.hurricanealley.net/images/AL91RECON.jpg



And now below the SST's. Look at how the seventies up strech to the Northern Atlantic Ocean. this is still enough fuel to fill a SUBTROPICAL Storms tank. Maybe not tropical

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SST/ATL/20.jpg



Next we have shear values. Initally, 12 hours, 24 hours, 36 hours, and 48 hours. IT shows shear rapidly decreasing and aiding in the possibility of Alex.











Now with the last thing below. The current low is going to weaken. So say bye bye to it. And a new one is going to form in the convection. At first the convection will be sheared to a point. But then the shear will drastically weaken allowing it to develop which I am convinced it will.




It is going to look bad at first. But it will become better orgainized as shear weakens.

[Matthew5]

I think I might agree with you on this. But we will have to wait in see how your forecast pans out I'm going to check out the computer models to see if they develop this second low.

[Matthew5]

What is the computer models saying about a second low developing???

The Avn weakings the first low pressure area which has been around for the last few days. Then forms another low under the convection. This low starts developing with in 6 to 12 hour time frame from the start of the computer model which is 12z. This area is likely the reason the southwestern low is weaking because the energy from this low is transporting to this new low. This low first develops at 28 north/63 west. The Avn then takes this low up the the north-northeast. But it will only be a short lived system. http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avn ... =Animation


The CMC starts out with first low that is now weaking. But all in all doe's not form a new low, just sticks with the old one. http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmc ... =Animation


The ukmet doe's not form a new low. But it doe's give the old one a second chance. http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukm ... =Animation

The nogaps forms a new low just like the Avn. Then takes it to the northeast. http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/nog ... =Animation

[Josephine96]

KC... If your models are correct there.. I guess "Alex" will be just a harmless fish.

That's a shame because we here in Florida are beginning to need rain real bad.

Today was our 6th day in a row above 90 degrees. I know the streak is just going to keep rising lol.. But we need some rain to cool off

[Wnghs2007]

I did not use any models. I put what the nhc wrote in there marine forecast earlier. But apperently that has changed to just that low weakening and reforming later.

[Wnghs2007]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml?

AMZ088-260330-
SYNOPSIS FOR SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
530 PM EDT TUE MAY 25 2004

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES NEAR 25N71W MOVING ENE 10 TO 15 KT 1011 MB
HAS A TROUGH E TO 27N65W AND ANOTHER TROUGH SW TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE BY WED NIGHT AS A SECOND LOW
PRES FORMS NEAR 27N65W TONIGHT POSSIBLY BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WED. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE OF AREA TRAILING A
TROUGH SW TO HISPANIOLA THROUGH THU. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALONG
27N FRI THROUGH SUN.

$$
AMZ080-260330-
SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
530 PM EDT TUE MAY 25 2004

.TONIGHT...FROM 25N TO 27N E OF 74W WIND NE TO E 25 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. FROM 23N TO 25N E OF 70W WIND SE TO S 20 TO 25
KT DECREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT WITH SE SWELL
SUBSIDING TO 6 TO 8 FT LATE. S OF 23N E OF 70W WIND SE TO S 15
KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. S OF 23N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W WIND S TO SW 10
KT OR LESS. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT WITH NE SWELL. S OF 27N W OF 75W WIND
N TO NE 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT WITH NE SWELL. FROM 27N TO
30N WIND E 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT WITH E SWELL. N OF 30N
WIND VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT. WIND AND SEAS
HIGHER AND VISIBILITY BELOW 3 NM IN NUMEROUS TSTMS N OF 26N E OF
69...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ELSEWHERE E OF
73W.
.WED...N OF 26N W OF 75W WIND VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING SW
10 TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT PRIMARILY IN SUBSIDING E SWELL.
S OF 26N W OF 75W WIND N TO NE 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT
PRIMARILY IN NE SWELL...EXCEPT 2 TO 3 FT W OF BAHAMA ISLANDS. N
OF 25N E OF 75W WIND NE TO E 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT WITH ELY
SWELL. S OF 25N E OF 75W WIND SW TO W 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6
FT PRIMARILY IN MERGING N AND SE SWELL. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS NE PART.
.WED NIGHT...N OF 28N W OF 70W WIND SW 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5
FT. S OF 28N W OF 70W WIND NE TO E 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5
FT...EXCEPT 2 FT W OF BAHAMA ISLANDS. N OF 24N E OF 70W WIND N
TO NE 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT WITH NE SWELL. S OF 24N E OF 70W
WIND SW TO W 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT PRIMARILY IN MERGING N AND SE
SWELL. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NE PART.
.THU...N OF 29N WIND SW TO W 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FROM 25N TO
29N WIND VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT. S OF 25N W OF 72W
WIND NE 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT...EXCEPT 2 FT OR LESS W OF BAHAMA
ISLANDS. S OF 25N E OF 72W WIND SW 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS SE PART.
.THU NIGHT...N OF 28N W OF 70W WIND SW TO W 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS
4 TO 5 FT. N OF 28N E OF 70W WIND W 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.
FROM 23N TO 28N WIND VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN
NLY SWELL E OF 72W AND 2 TO 3 FT W OF 72W. S OF 23N WIND VARIABLE
10 KT OR LESS EXCEPT W OF 70W WIND NE TO E 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS
3 TO 4 FT...EXCEPT 1 TO 3 FT W OF BAHAMA ISLANDS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS
AND TSTMS S OF 25N.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N OF 28N WIND W 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT. FROM
23N TO 28N WIND VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT
1 TO 2 FT W OF BAHAMA ISLANDS. S OF 23N WIND VARIABLE 10 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 25N.

$$
FORECASTER AGUIRRE

This is were the new low forms. This is the most recent one issued.The next will come out at 11:30 PM. Stay Tuned.

[HURAKAN]

If the new low really form, then we can say, HIP, HIP, HOORAY!!!

May be tomorrow.

Sandy Delgado



AH!! THE BEST COMBINATION;, SUN, BEACH, AND THE LOVE OF THE PEOPLE IN MIAMI.