Agatha losing convection...
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wx247
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Agatha losing convection...
bye bye Agatha! Nice while it lasted.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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cycloneye
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It was expected as it encounters cooler waters but as you said a little good start for those who like to track storms.
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dixiebreeze
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Brent
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Tropical Storm Agatha Discussion Number 7
Statement as of 8:00 am PDT on May 23, 2004
Agatha is beginning to decay. The central ring of convection
present in microwave imagery 12 hours ago has broken up.
Notwithstanding the recent flare-up in the southwest quadrant...
infrared imagery indicates that the areal extent of deep convection
is decreasing. Using an average of the T and ci numbers...which is
usually a more accurate indicator than the ci number for weakening
systems...yields an intensity estimate of 40 kt. A Quikscat pass at
01z suggests that the radius of 34 kt winds is also decreasing.
Unfortunately the most recent pass missed the cyclone.
The initial motion estimate is 335/5. Model guidance continues to
indicate a weakening of the steering currents over the next 24-48
hours. The GFS shows the upper portion of the system continuing
northward ahead of the large-scale upper trough to the west of
Agatha...with the low level remnants moving slowly northwestward.
The NOGAPS and the UKMET maintain a more vertically coherent system
on a track to the right of the GFS. Since the cyclone already
appears to be shearing off a bit...the official forecast is
adjusted slightly to the left of the previous advisory...in the
direction of the GFS and the shallow BAM but with a slower forward
speed.
Agatha is over 26c SSTs and headed...albeit slowly...for cooler
waters and a more stable air mass. A gradual spindown is therefore
expected. The official intensity forecast is adjusted downward but
is still above the SHIPS and GFDL guidance. Agatha is expected to
degenerate to a non-convective remnant low within 48-72 hours.
Forecaster Franklin
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 23/1500z 18.1n 110.4w 40 kt
12hr VT 24/0000z 18.9n 110.6w 35 kt
24hr VT 24/1200z 19.5n 110.8w 30 kt
36hr VT 25/0000z 19.8n 110.9w 30 kt
48hr VT 25/1200z 20.0n 111.0w 25 kt...dissipating
72hr VT 26/1200z 20.0n 111.0w 25 kt...remnant low
96hr VT 27/1200z 20.5n 111.5w 25 kt...remnant low
120hr VT 28/1200z 21.0n 112.0w 20 kt...remnant low
Statement as of 8:00 am PDT on May 23, 2004
Agatha is beginning to decay. The central ring of convection
present in microwave imagery 12 hours ago has broken up.
Notwithstanding the recent flare-up in the southwest quadrant...
infrared imagery indicates that the areal extent of deep convection
is decreasing. Using an average of the T and ci numbers...which is
usually a more accurate indicator than the ci number for weakening
systems...yields an intensity estimate of 40 kt. A Quikscat pass at
01z suggests that the radius of 34 kt winds is also decreasing.
Unfortunately the most recent pass missed the cyclone.
The initial motion estimate is 335/5. Model guidance continues to
indicate a weakening of the steering currents over the next 24-48
hours. The GFS shows the upper portion of the system continuing
northward ahead of the large-scale upper trough to the west of
Agatha...with the low level remnants moving slowly northwestward.
The NOGAPS and the UKMET maintain a more vertically coherent system
on a track to the right of the GFS. Since the cyclone already
appears to be shearing off a bit...the official forecast is
adjusted slightly to the left of the previous advisory...in the
direction of the GFS and the shallow BAM but with a slower forward
speed.
Agatha is over 26c SSTs and headed...albeit slowly...for cooler
waters and a more stable air mass. A gradual spindown is therefore
expected. The official intensity forecast is adjusted downward but
is still above the SHIPS and GFDL guidance. Agatha is expected to
degenerate to a non-convective remnant low within 48-72 hours.
Forecaster Franklin
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 23/1500z 18.1n 110.4w 40 kt
12hr VT 24/0000z 18.9n 110.6w 35 kt
24hr VT 24/1200z 19.5n 110.8w 30 kt
36hr VT 25/0000z 19.8n 110.9w 30 kt
48hr VT 25/1200z 20.0n 111.0w 25 kt...dissipating
72hr VT 26/1200z 20.0n 111.0w 25 kt...remnant low
96hr VT 27/1200z 20.5n 111.5w 25 kt...remnant low
120hr VT 28/1200z 21.0n 112.0w 20 kt...remnant low
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