GFDL for 90L

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
MortisFL
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 391
Age: 42
Joined: Mon Jul 21, 2003 9:01 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:
Contact MortisFL

GFDL for 90L

#1 Postby MortisFL » Fri May 21, 2004 6:06 pm

Sends it into the Pacific then back into the west Caribbean in 126hrs... :?:
0 likes   
Top
Derek Ortt

#2 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri May 21, 2004 6:08 pm

Big problems with the GFDL. It spins up 2 seperate systems, merging the EPAC with the Carib, with EPAC being dominant. Dont worry though, this is known as a problem and should be addressed
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#3 Postby HURAKAN » Fri May 21, 2004 6:16 pm

The GFDL, as always, wondering about everything and doing crazy things.

Sandy Delgado
0 likes   
Top
MWatkins
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2574
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 7:51 pm
Location: SE Florida
Contact:
Contact MWatkins

#4 Postby MWatkins » Fri May 21, 2004 6:37 pm

Hey Mortis...

The text version of yesterdays run dropped it all together. The graphical display on the PSU does exactly what you mentioned. I think it was more a case of the model not representing the broad area of low pressure too well.

Supposedly they made some improvements to the model to keep it from dropping systems right away...but in this case I think the model bugging out on a very iffy May system is OK and I give it a pass.

But...if it starts droppping well-organized tropical depressions in the Central Atlantic in August...then it'll be another case of here we go again.

MW
0 likes   
Top
Derek Ortt

#5 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri May 21, 2004 6:39 pm

GFDL is alos a sigma model and sigma models do not perform very well over high mountain regions
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38258
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#6 Postby Brent » Fri May 21, 2004 6:41 pm

LOL! I think the GFDL may replace the GFS for it's goofy forecasts. :lol: :roll:
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
MWatkins
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2574
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 7:51 pm
Location: SE Florida
Contact:
Contact MWatkins

#7 Postby MWatkins » Fri May 21, 2004 6:50 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:GFDL is alos a sigma model and sigma models do not perform very well over high mountain regions


I think all of the sigma models share this problem (GFS/ETA/NOGAPS/UKMET). I guess on the learge scale this is balanced some. They supposedly made changes to the GFS to better handle mountians and flow in/around/over...

http://meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/gfsannounce200402.htm

But I concede it could eaisly be a problem with the GFDL in a smaller scale environment when initialized with a low near a bunch of mountians.

MW
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 109 guests