TD 1E - ALMOST HERE

#1 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri May 21, 2004 12:03 pm

According to the latest news emitted by the NHC the disturbance south of Manzanillo, Mexico, is has continued to become better organize and probably this afternoon advisories are going to be posted concerning this system. Up to now Mexico is not threatened by this system.

Sandy Delgado

#2 Postby **wx247** » Fri May 21, 2004 12:14 pm

Looks pretty good, although no real deep convection at this time.

Wnghs2007 · #3 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Fri May 21, 2004 1:22 pm

Well here is the latest Scatt. Looks like an LLC is there WE HAVE US A TD MY FRIENDS. 5 Pm You will have your first outlook if the convection does not dissipate.

#4 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Fri May 21, 2004 1:37 pm

Wow, they have to upgrade it at 5. Look how organized it is, not to mention the obvious circulation and winds.

#5 Postby **wx247** » Fri May 21, 2004 2:08 pm

So, do you think it will be at 30 or 35 mph?? The convection looks to be slightly southwest of the center, but looks pretty good.

Wnghs2007 · #6 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Fri May 21, 2004 2:10 pm

Well in the last few images of satilite a blob has blown up were the center is. That pic is about 4 hours old. So based on that I would expect atleast 35 MPH

#7 Postby **wx247** » Fri May 21, 2004 2:15 pm

KC, I was getting ready to say that, too! We will have to see if the convection persists there.

Wnghs2007 · #8 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Fri May 21, 2004 2:19 pm

wx247 wrote:KC, I was getting ready to say that, too! We will have to see if the convection persists there.

Yes if convection persist if they start the advisories up at 5 pm with the TD at 35 mph. We might see Agatha by 11 Pm tonight

#9 Postby **wx247** » Fri May 21, 2004 2:20 pm

It is a possibility. I favor more likely tomorrow morning for Agatha. It will almost certainly be a TD at 4 pm PDT.

Wnghs2007 · #10 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Fri May 21, 2004 2:27 pm

Yes you are most likely correct on that assumption about it getting named. It will probally wain in convection some after the sun goes down. Then with dinurnal heating it will fire back up tomorrow morning and afternoon and probally be named.

#11 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri May 21, 2004 2:39 pm

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/04052118

At least at 5:00 PM it wont be a TD as they want to wait for more organization as the center of the disturbance is not at the middle of the convection but on the right side.The tropical models update at 18:00z are seeing that and they have not upgraded the winds from 25kts as they leaved those 25KTS the same as this morning to (30kts)=35 mph which is TD freshold but if it organizes a little more then by 11 PM TD#1 will be born.

Matthew5 · #12 Postby **Matthew5** » Fri May 21, 2004 5:36 pm

If they don't upgrade it now it may be nothing.

Anonymous · #13 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri May 21, 2004 5:38 pm

It looks very healthy.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Matthew5 · #14 Postby **Matthew5** » Fri May 21, 2004 5:43 pm

It looks like it is a strong tropical depression, maybe even a weak tropical storm. But it may only have another 24 to 36 hours at the rate it is going before it moves over colder waters. To be truthful it is likely a tropical depression at this time. But the nhc doe's not like to upgrade systems unless they have to.

#15 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri May 21, 2004 5:49 pm

As usual the NHC is waiting too much, it looks a TD, good curvature and good amount of showers and thunderstorms, but the NHC is boss here.

Sandy Delgado

TD 1E - ALMOST HERE

TD 1E - ALMOST HERE

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