I'm a little confused on the SOI index. Is more positive mean a better chance of an El Nino or more negative? Reason I ask is because everytime the index goes more positive the SST's seem to rise. I thought it was more negative meant a better chance of an El Nino but maybe I'm wrong.SOI
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SOI
I'm a little confused on the SOI index. Is more positive mean a better chance of an El Nino or more negative? Reason I ask is because everytime the index goes more positive the SST's seem to rise. I thought it was more negative meant a better chance of an El Nino but maybe I'm wrong.
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The SST's rising eastward over time represent lag time from when the index was extremely negative during parts of April. I wouldn't base El Nino/La Nina "overall" alone on SOI predictors. They're better in non-TUTT seasons at forecasting amplification or lack thereof in the eastern United States 15 days out. But the SOI can flip based on tropical genesis in the WPAC and other localized influences.
Steve
Steve
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