Caribbean Disturbance Not Looking too Good

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wxman57
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Caribbean Disturbance Not Looking too Good

#1 Postby wxman57 » Thu May 20, 2004 5:09 pm

I've been out of touch all day, speaking at a hurricane seminar. Now I'm in a hotel in Lafayette, LA on about 28.8K dial-up. Does anyone still use dial up? So I can't look at any satellite loops. But I did look at still images and a number of models. I don't really see much there yet. Just some scattered thunderstorms but nothing is persisting in any one area. Models are much slower with any possible development today. I know that everyone's excited about the start of the season, but we'll see many systems such as this through the year. I'd estimate maybe 1 or 2 out of 10 might develop. This one looks no different right now. Any development down there will probably be very slow.
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#2 Postby Amanzi » Thu May 20, 2004 5:12 pm

Thanks for the update.

Yes a few of us plebs still have dial up ;) :cry:
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BAU

#3 Postby jlauderdal » Thu May 20, 2004 5:12 pm

Business as usual for this time of the year. None of this should surprise anyone. I would be surprised if anything significant happens before Monday and I mean development not movement towards the US.
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Re: BAU

#4 Postby OtherHD » Thu May 20, 2004 5:15 pm

jlauderdal wrote:Business as usual for this time of the year. None of this should surprise anyone. I would be surprised if anything significant happens before Monday and I mean development not movement towards the US.


Right, every year we get one of these early season teasers that get everyone excited about the season. I remember the one 2 years ago, where for 2 weeks straight models showed development in the W Carib, and everyone was scrutinizing the loops, trying to find the slightest hint of an LLCC. Of course, it didn't materialize.
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#5 Postby Rainband » Thu May 20, 2004 5:15 pm

Thanks chris. :) Still not good news for PR. Lots of moisture for them :eek:
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#6 Postby Brent » Thu May 20, 2004 5:20 pm

Dial-up? You mean people still have that? :lol:

Got rid of that crap 16 months ago and never looked back. Have cable now. It's so nice having downloads not take more than a minute or two. :P
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#7 Postby Rainband » Thu May 20, 2004 5:23 pm

Brent wrote:Dial-up? You mean people still have that? :lol:

Got rid of that crap 16 months ago and never looked back. Have cable now. It's so nice having downloads not take more than a minute or two. :P
I love my RoadRunner :)
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#8 Postby wxman57 » Thu May 20, 2004 5:30 pm

Well, I'm in a rinky-dink hotel in Lafayette that won't have cable for 2-3 months yet. I was a beta tester for RoadRunner in Houston 3 years ago. It's worth every penny.

By the way, I'm pulling for a late-season start, maybe mid August for Alex. :D
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#9 Postby Guest » Thu May 20, 2004 5:32 pm

:cry: I had to downgrade from broadband to dial-up after encountering some tough times. :cry:
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#10 Postby CajunMama » Thu May 20, 2004 5:39 pm

Welcome to Lafayette!!!!!! Hope you enjoy your stay! Need high speed internet? C'mon over!
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#11 Postby Rainband » Thu May 20, 2004 5:45 pm

wxman57 wrote:By the way, I'm pulling for a late-season start, maybe mid August for Alex. :D
Can you explain why :roll: :)
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#12 Postby Brent » Thu May 20, 2004 5:51 pm

wxman57 wrote:By the way, I'm pulling for a late-season start, maybe mid August for Alex. :D


Yuck. I'd rather have the season over early with the election and the Olympics(but still have an active season :wink: )
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#13 Postby Aquawind » Thu May 20, 2004 6:03 pm

Bummer on the Dialup..I have not seen any deep persitant convection over water to get my attention yet..OMG a August start would have this board in a frenzy of frustration....lol...could easily happen though.. 8-)
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#14 Postby Brent » Thu May 20, 2004 6:05 pm

Aquawind wrote:Bummer on the Dialup..I have not seen any deep persitant convection over water to get my attention yet..OMG a August start would have this board in a frenzy of frustration....lol...could easily happen though.. 8-)


LOL, for real. :lol:

:)
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Re: BAU

#15 Postby jlauderdal » Thu May 20, 2004 6:39 pm

OtherHD wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:Business as usual for this time of the year. None of this should surprise anyone. I would be surprised if anything significant happens before Monday and I mean development not movement towards the US.


Right, every year we get one of these early season teasers that get everyone excited about the season. I remember the one 2 years ago, where for 2 weeks straight models showed development in the W Carib, and everyone was scrutinizing the loops, trying to find the slightest hint of an LLCC. Of course, it didn't materialize.


There is a direct correlation between the amount of thunderstorms and the amount of posts..doesnt matter if shear is 30+
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#16 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu May 20, 2004 6:48 pm

Welcome to Lafayette as well!
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#17 Postby Anonymous » Thu May 20, 2004 6:58 pm

Agree....the STJ is still too far south and we have two competing areas of disturbed weather. The models are no longer hyping the development of the low as much as they have been either. While convection has increased today it is likely the result of shear-induced diffluence.
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#18 Postby Guest » Thu May 20, 2004 7:04 pm

Rainband wrote:
wxman57 wrote:By the way, I'm pulling for a late-season start, maybe mid August for Alex. :D
Can you explain why :roll: :)




I would like to hear a explanation on this as well? My first guess would be your joking.
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#19 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu May 20, 2004 7:09 pm

Congrats to your daughter, Cajunmama. We have a little dancer in the family, ballet and jazz -- almost time for her recital. She even likes tropical weather! :lol:
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#20 Postby wxman57 » Thu May 20, 2004 8:42 pm

Rainband wrote:
wxman57 wrote:By the way, I'm pulling for a late-season start, maybe mid August for Alex. :D
Can you explain why :roll: :)


Because I'm too busy giving hurricane talks to get everyone ready for the start of the season (among other things). I'll be perfectly happy if we don't see a storm until September.
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