It was ONLY a matter of TIME!

[azskyman]

Steve, as usual your insight into the "setting stage" although not encouraging is good to know. All of us in the Southwest will be watching those winds and hoping for the best.

The combination of approaching heat, tinder dry humidity, and the winds of which you speak will make everyone well aware of the risks, and perhaps that will help in early detection and containment.

Lets at least hope that any fires during such hot and windy times will be confined to ridges and leeward locations where upslope fuel is not an ingredient.

[azsnowman]

3 "MORE" starts TODAY ALONE......this has GOT to be the work of an Arsonist! I HOPE TO HADES they CATCH this friggin' JERK, tie his BUTT to a post and light his ASP on FIRE! A little harsh? NO!

Dennis

[SolarQuestions]

Do you think one of the reasons for forest fires is to clear land for more housing developments and that the real people who start these fires will never be caught. Its all about money money money. And so they lose some homes ...im sure they will be rebuilt and that will make more money for someone else ...money is evil.

[Stephanie]

Anything is possible SQ. Insurance fraud is a big problem.

[SolarQuestions]

It makes me ashamed to be a human being sometimes because of what others can do that call themselves human beings. Nothing is sacred anymore except for the one true god....m-o-n-e-y.

P.S- i dont want to hear any nonsense about christians and islam and buddists and hindus and any religion ...we all know the one true god everyone worships is money.

[GalvestonDuck]

Now who really puts their faith in money? That doesn't quite make sense to me. No offense, SQ.

[SolarQuestions]

ok then give all your money away to homeless people and live in humble poverty and just worship God ....live just like Jesus did. Hmmm be kind of tough to do huh?

or if you hit the lottery give every dime away to charity.

[chadtm80]

Boy your arguments are so dang good.. How could any of us stand a chance to debate them with you??

[GalvestonDuck]

Been there, done that.

That still doesn't explain why you think people put faith in money or worship it.

If we could go back to bartering for goods and services, that would work just as well for me.

It's not the money I love. I love that I can provide for myself and live independently. I am thankful to have food on my table, a shelter over my head (even if the A/C doesn't work right now...and no, I don't worship the A/C either), and a big beach that I can run to in five minutes flat. I'm grateful that I have my eyesight (even though I lost my glasses at the beach ). My fingers work so I can do what I need for continuity of care for UTMB patients. I have my health. I have friends. And I live in one heck of a wonderful little coastal city in one heck of a big, beautiful country.

And I thank God for that. Not money.

[SolarQuestions]

i still say money is the true god of the world. What do you think will put more fear into someone ....not having any money or God hitting them with a lightening bolt? Or God sending their soul to hell? Hhmmmm i wonder which one of those people are really afraid of?

[GalvestonDuck]

As I said...been there, done that in regards to being penniless. It wasn't comfortable, but it wasn't permanent nor scary.

Hell -- permanent. Not a happy thought at all!

[southerngale]

i still say money is the true god of the world. What do you think will put more fear into someone ....not having any money or God hitting them with a lightening bolt? Or God sending their soul to hell? Hhmmmm i wonder which one of those people are really afraid of?

hmmm...no money or burn in hell? It might take me a while to make a decision.

money the true god of the world...LOL! (would be pretty sad if you were serious)

[Guest]

i still say money is the true god of the world. What do you think will put more fear into someone ....not having any money or God hitting them with a lightening bolt? Or God sending their soul to hell? Hhmmmm i wonder which one of those people are really afraid of?

Try not to concern yourself with what other people believe. You can't control anyone's thoughts but your own. We are all entitled to believe whatever we want (btw I seriously doubt anyone thinks money is the true God). Concentrating on yourself and your own beliefs will make you a happier person. Don't let bitterness rule your life.
...Jennifer...

[Aslkahuna]

it's a hit, but don't give me that do goody good Bull S**T!-"Money" by Roger Waters recorded by Pink Floyd on the album "Dark Side of the Moon".

On another topic, we have a model consensus on the pattern expected next week. The models have all come around to the idea of a cutoff Low off the CA coast and a strong H5 High SE of AZ. The devil's in the details though so it's not yet clear how much of the gradient we'll see or how hot we will get. Typically, this type of pattern results in breezy conditions and near normal temperatures. The bad thing about this pattern is that wind maxes imbedded in the flow can result in periods of stronger winds. The good thing is that the GFS is no longer going for 65-70kt H5 winds over us. But it will still be dry and winds will still be a problem through next week. Interestingly, I heard someone on the news last night who was talking about the fire danger say that the winds we were having this month were unusual as we normally get the strongest winds in March and April. I wondered to myself which Planet he was from since May is one of the windiest months of the year at Fort Huachuca.

Steve

[azsnowman]

WELL.....this could be a VERY interesting day to say the LEAST! This is from the Southwest Center Fire Control........

Fire Weather Forecast for Thursday - May 20, 2004


...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL OF NORTHERN, EASTERN, AND SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA, MOST OF NORTHERN 1/2 OF NEW MEXICO BELOW 9000 FEET FOR STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...

SYNOPSIS: A critical fire weather pattern continues to take shape and is poised to affect much of the southwest Geographic area with strong winds and low humidity values through Saturday. The region will remain under a moderate to strong southwest to west flow aloft through this time period caused by low pressure off the west coast and high pressure over southwest Texas. Both Thursday and Friday into the early portion of the weekend will have critical conditions across at least parts of the region as the offshore low gradually moves east and strengthens the west to southwest flow aloft over the region. On Saturday, the trough of low pressure is expected to drive eastward to the north of the region bringing a temporary end to the critical conditions. Winds will be more southerly on Thursday but will increase slightly and become more westerly by Friday into Saturday, with even stronger westerly winds possible by the early to middle portion of next week as another upper low passes by to the north. A heightened sense of situational awareness is stressed for the entire southwest Geographic region over the next few days as windy to very windy conditions will remain prevalent.


Dennis

[azskyman]

Ah yes, wind will be with us here in the valley as cooler conditions prevail over the weekend. That means plenty of gusty winds to the north, but hopefully temps will fall dramatically as well.

Never really saw a reply, but I asked weather friend Jack Williams of USA Today's weather page a question that perhaps you would know, Steve.

At what minimum temperatures does wildfire become suppressed. For example, if a significant fire is roaming the forests, but surrounding temperatures dip to say, 35, overnight, does the temperature actually help suppress it?

Locations on the rim could see temps in the mid or upper 30's at night over the weekend.

[azsnowman]

Steve, temps. play a very minimual role in fire supression. Yes, cooler temps DO aid *somewhat*...the biggest factor in fire supression is the dewpoint and humidity. A fire will lay down at night when the temps start to drop but will continue to make a uphill run only at ground level. When the temp starts to rise in the late morning (1000-1100 hrs) the fire will *Crown* and make a significant run.

Dennis

[azsnowman]

BTW....this is from Michelle and her firefighting days and the numerous Fire Behavior Classes in Missoula Montana!

Dennis

[Aslkahuna]

at the beginning of March 2002 that had no problems burning at night despite temperatures that dropped into the Teens at night and even with patches of snow on the ground at the elevation of the fire. Problem was that the dewpoints were below Zero so the RH stayed low.

The fire outlook that Snow posted is what I would have said day before yesterday based upon the GFS. Apparently, the models have changed their thoughts and are going for those high H5 winds again. I'll be checking them later this afternoon.

Steve

[azskyman]

Steve and Dennis...thanks for sharing your experience with temps and fire suppression. Humidity, wind, slope, and fuel are obviously the main components with HEAT a bigger factor than COLD.