Still Lots of Shear..But...

[MWatkins]

Looking down in the SW Caribbean this evening...there is still LOTS of shear going on...but it looks to be retreating a little and is now mostly north of 10N....more or less right on schedule.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Tonight's Euro run it still tracking a low but is slower and weaker with the evoloution in terms of development and forward motion...leaving it in the Central Caribbean in a week:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... s!latest!/

Looks like there are some thunderstorms going down there this evening...maybe we are starting to see the start of this system coming together.

The 18Z GFS is not kicking out the system right away...and based on where the models are trending lately whatever tries to come out could get trapped in the Caribbean for a while. Going to be interesting to see what the 00Z models do...the GFS should start dumping data in the next hour or so.

MW

[wx247]

Will be looking forward to what they have to show. I am still not overly anxious about development down there. But if the shear relaxes a little more then I think we have reason to watch more attentively.

[Anonymous]

When the majority of the models are all in agreement for several days in a row you can have a little more faith in the conensus. I am still not quite sure about development, especially tropical development. But a further decrease in shear should still happen. If the low can sit down there long enough it may have a better shot. Today's models runs are a bit slower with the low staying south or west of Cuba through days 6-7.