hey Mike Watkins

[boca]

What is your take on the models possibly taking a hybrid sort of system across Cuba and maybe S Fl?

[boca]

Actually comments from all welcome. Thanks Steve

[MWatkins]

Hey Boca...

Thanks for asking...just got in playing a little baseball with the boys and saw your note.

My thoughts haven't really changed from yesterday, so part of the post from yesterday is the end of this one.

First, shear is increasing all around the area compared to yesterday:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Any mid-level circulation that spun up yesterday under all of that deep convection has long since dissipated. On top of that...there are still some questions on whether or not the dynamics will develop that could induce something to fire in the SW Caribbean as the AVN advertises during the coming days (Thurs/Fri).

Now...it looks like the system in the East Pac is getting a little better organized. Upper conditions will probably continue to improve for that system...and water temps are warm enough that it will probably go ahead and develop as the models have been suggesting for the last few days.

As this occurs...I would venture to guess that the models will start to drop a western Caribbean system....and/or develop it into less of a tropical looking low...as they latch on to the epac disturbance. I could be wrong though. If the models more or less continue to agree on something coming together say this time on Wednesday...then I would thing this deserves a little more attention.

Shear is still forecast to decrease down there with time...but right now this is kind of like getting a fluffy birthday present from my grandmother when I was 8 years old. History (and instinct) tells me it's probably socks (or in otherwords nothing)...so that is what I would expect when I open it. But somewhere...lurking...is that little thought that she tucked a $5.00 in the socks.

In other words...it (development) could happen...but it probably won't.

Yesterday's post attached below...

MW

Hate to put a damper on this system with my thoughts on it...but here they are:

1. There is tons of shear down in the Caribbean...and this shear is forecast to persist for the next 7 days...although upper conditions are forecast to get a little more favorable south of 20N by days 6 and 7. Latest shear analysis from CIMMS suggests 20 to 30 knots at least:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

2. There are no indications that this convection is surface based...in fact all of the shear is creating some upper divergance which is enhancing thunderstorm activity down there.

3. If anything were to develop until it will probably result from the low in the EPAC. The UKMET does want to develop a TC in 5 days or so but it's entire possible that nothing gets going.

In any event...if a perfect confluence of events occurs and western Caribbean development does occur... strong shear past 20N means it will never become a problem for the US mainland.

Just my $0.02.

MW