http://www.srh.weather.gov/mfl/newpage/ ... Discussion
This is the Miami forecast discussion where they say it bears watching the situation in the caribbean in the comming days but for now they want to see more runs from the models before they jump at the bandwagon.
Miami AFD=We will watch next runs from models
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cycloneye
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Miami AFD=We will watch next runs from models
Last edited by cycloneye on Mon May 17, 2004 1:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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mia disscussion
Hey Luis, I hope this pans out becuse its very dry here in South Fl. We could really use the rain.
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cycloneye
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Re: mia disscussion
boca wrote:Hey Luis, I hope this pans out becuse its very dry here in South Fl. We could really use the rain.
Surely boca that area needs the rain badly and hopefully a tropical system provide the rains but of course no more than a depression or a tropical storm.
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dixiebreeze
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"THIS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WARM WATERS OF
THE CARIB SEA AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES RATHER FAVORABLE
UNDER A DIVERGENT FLOW JUST SE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GULF. AT THIS POINT AND TIME"
Luis, thanks for the heads up. Looks like we MIGHT have something to watch soon.
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WARM WATERS OF
THE CARIB SEA AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES RATHER FAVORABLE
UNDER A DIVERGENT FLOW JUST SE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GULF. AT THIS POINT AND TIME"
Luis, thanks for the heads up. Looks like we MIGHT have something to watch soon.
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sfwx
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Melboure AFD 5-17-2004
LOOKING AHEAD...EXTENDED GFS/ECMWF/NOGAPS MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN CARIB
OVER THE WEEKEND AND PUSHING N THROUGH CUBA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MIDNIGHT CREW SAID IT BEST... HOWEVER: SHOULD SAID SYSTEM
DEVELOP...IT WOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY BE A HYBRID WITH ITS STRENGTH
DEPENDANT ON BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENT. WITH THE REGIONAL H25 SRN JET
MAXING OUT AT 60KTS... SUCH ENHANCEMENT WOULD BE MODERATE AT BEST.
WILL INDICATE SLIGHTLY STRONGER SFC WINDS ON SUN/MON...BUT TOO MANY
FEATURES STILL NEED TO FALL INTO PLACE BEFORE IT GETS PLAYED UP.
&&
.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LATEST FCST TREND. WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN THE
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT OVERNIGHT AS SHORT PD 5FT SEAS CONTINUE AT BOTH
CANAVERAL BUOYS. FRESH ERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY RELAX BY MID WEEK
AS THE ATLC DLM RIDGE PRESSES S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 68 82 66 83 / 0 10 0 10
MCO 67 87 66 86 / 0 10 0 10
MLB 70 82 70 83 / 10 10 10 10
VRB 70 83 69 83 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....BRAGAW
INDICATE A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN CARIB
OVER THE WEEKEND AND PUSHING N THROUGH CUBA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MIDNIGHT CREW SAID IT BEST... HOWEVER: SHOULD SAID SYSTEM
DEVELOP...IT WOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY BE A HYBRID WITH ITS STRENGTH
DEPENDANT ON BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENT. WITH THE REGIONAL H25 SRN JET
MAXING OUT AT 60KTS... SUCH ENHANCEMENT WOULD BE MODERATE AT BEST.
WILL INDICATE SLIGHTLY STRONGER SFC WINDS ON SUN/MON...BUT TOO MANY
FEATURES STILL NEED TO FALL INTO PLACE BEFORE IT GETS PLAYED UP.
&&
.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LATEST FCST TREND. WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN THE
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT OVERNIGHT AS SHORT PD 5FT SEAS CONTINUE AT BOTH
CANAVERAL BUOYS. FRESH ERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY RELAX BY MID WEEK
AS THE ATLC DLM RIDGE PRESSES S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 68 82 66 83 / 0 10 0 10
MCO 67 87 66 86 / 0 10 0 10
MLB 70 82 70 83 / 10 10 10 10
VRB 70 83 69 83 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....BRAGAW
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Dean4Storms
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This will be interesting. But if something does develop it will face alot of unfavorable conditions ahead!
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My opinion and statements DO NOT represent the opinion of the EMA, NHC, NWS, or any other professional agency, organization, or group. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Anonymous
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Anonymous
Interesting update....
The Canadian did show the low roaring up the EC...now the ECMWF is beginning to look that way. The Euro first takes the low over E Cuba and Haiti by day 6 but the center is much closer to SE FL by day 7. By this time I highly doubt that we will be dealing with a fully tropical system.
The Canadian did show the low roaring up the EC...now the ECMWF is beginning to look that way. The Euro first takes the low over E Cuba and Haiti by day 6 but the center is much closer to SE FL by day 7. By this time I highly doubt that we will be dealing with a fully tropical system.
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