Tropical Update: 15 May

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

Tropical Update: 15 May

#1 Postby senorpepr » Sat May 15, 2004 9:57 am

I haven't posted an update to the webpage yet, but figured I'd get this thread open.

Right now we have TY Nida, TD 05W, and Invests 96W and 93B. 96W has been upgraded from a 'poor' to 'fair' chance while I expect the same for 93B in the near future.

Current Dvorak estimates are as follows:
TY Nida: 4.5/4.5
TD 05W: 1.5/1.5
96W: 1.0/1.0
93B: 1.0/1.0
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#2 Postby senorpepr » Sat May 15, 2004 12:01 pm

12Z update is posted.

Also update is the summary page to reflect 05W's birth.

Enjoy!

http://tropicalupdate.storm2k.org
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#3 Postby senorpepr » Sat May 15, 2004 3:53 pm

18Z update is posted...

Wow... two active cyclones in the NWPAC, a third developing, and another cyclone developing in the Bay of Bengal!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#4 Postby senorpepr » Sat May 15, 2004 5:40 pm

Yet another TCFA...

Looks like Invest 96W is on the verge of becoming our sixth depression of the NWPAC season...

Code: Select all

WTPN23 PGTW 152130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 152121Z MAY 04//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.7N2 145.6E6 TO 7.5N2 139.1E4
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM­
AGERY AT 152030Z1 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 5.8N3 145.0E0. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.4N9
146.4E5, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.8N3 145.0E0, APPROXIMATELY 455 NM
SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 162130Z3.//
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#5 Postby senorpepr » Sat May 15, 2004 8:13 pm

Invest 96W has been upgraded to TD 06W. (Boy... this is a busy day.)
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Blown Away, Datsaintsfan09, Hurricane2022, HurricaneFan, johngaltfla and 59 guests