Pattern reminds me of 1993 somewhat ...

[Stormsfury]

Big difference though are the constant rounds of thunderstorms much farther south in TX and LA with copious amounts of rain and flooding. Otherwise, you have the trough out west and the unseasonably cool weather in the Northern Plains ... and even a wacky setup where part of a tornado watch covered an county just north of a warm front (where temps were in the 30's in North Dakota) while just further south, temperatures were in the 60's/70's a few days ago ... the pattern has been very stagnant where the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. The stubborn Bermuda High (and a subtropical SFC ridge) has pretty much shut down afternoon convection in the Southeast and many locations have not seen any rain in weeks ...

The 12z ETA offers no relief thru the next 84 hours, and the GFS thru the next 120 hours is too widespread in QPF coverage given the nature of convective activity this time of year without a real source of a triggering mechanism ... the high does become "dirty" so to speak in the next several days as SOME (using the term very loosely) convection may be able to fire with afternoon heating. According to the 0z ECMWF, the Bermuda high through the next seven days looks to remain firmly in place with little variations, which is not good news given that we're heading into what normally is a daily chance of isolated to scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms, and without that ground moisture to aid in the diurnal process (drought begat drought), this summer for the Southeast could be looking to be a scorcher, and far from what last summer brought.

SF

[Guest]

Big difference though are the constant rounds of thunderstorms much farther south in TX and LA with copious amounts of rain and flooding. Otherwise, you have the trough out west and the unseasonably cool weather in the Northern Plains ... and even a wacky setup where part of a tornado watch covered an county just north of a warm front (where temps were in the 30's in North Dakota) while just further south, temperatures were in the 60's/70's a few days ago ... the pattern has been very stagnant where the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. The stubborn Bermuda High (and a subtropical SFC ridge) has pretty much shut down afternoon convection in the Southeast and many locations have not seen any rain in weeks ...

The 12z ETA offers no relief thru the next 84 hours, and the GFS thru the next 120 hours is too widespread in QPF coverage given the nature of convective activity this time of year without a real source of a triggering mechanism ... the high does become "dirty" so to speak in the next several days as SOME (using the term very loosely) convection may be able to fire with afternoon heating. According to the 0z ECMWF, the Bermuda high through the next seven days looks to remain firmly in place with little variations, which is not good news given that we're heading into what normally is a daily chance of isolated to scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms, and without that ground moisture to aid in the diurnal process (drought begat drought), this summer for the Southeast could be looking to be a scorcher, and far from what last summer brought.

SF

Has been very wacky the last few weeks. However i think the pattern will change again. I have noticed we have had these spells all year going back to January (East of the rockies more so) that seem to last a few weeks or so and then change again. Thats my opinion on it fwiw.

[wx247]

I agree King... the only problem is once we move into the summer months we get the drought begat drought situation that Stormsfury so accurately points out. It is going to be hard to make up for this rain in a month or so, barring anything tropical in nature. I am afraid it is gonna be one hot summer in the SE.

[Rainband]

Hopefully the drought doesn't reach central Florida!!

[breeze]

...and, we'll wish that ALL this rain could have
been stored up in rain barrels!

[breeze]

Jinx, Johnathan!

[Rainband]

Jinx, Johnathan!

[jshetley]

A repeat of 1993 is the last thing we need here in SC. Here where I live it rained only 3 times from late may through early September. It was also very hot with temps close to 100 for nearly 2 months.

[Stormsfury]

A repeat of 1993 is the last thing we need here in SC. Here where I live it rained only 3 times from late may through early September. It was also very hot with temps close to 100 for nearly 2 months.

1993 was a very brutal summer (though not as hot as 1980 or 1986). Since 1991 - South Carolina and the Southeast have seen its share of plenty and plenty of nothing ... but of course, the worst drought in South Carolina recorded history plagued us from mid-1997 all the way through late 2002, when the rains finally returned in earnest ... 2003 was a good year, but 2004 has seen the rains shutting down yet again ... and although, nothing officially from the SCDNR, the conditions are quite dry.

Below is a list of selected cities, and the departures from normal for the week of May 3-9, 2004 and the yearly departures of average rainfall ...

<pre>
Precipitation Temperature
Weekly Jan 1 Deviation Average Average
Total Total From Avg Maximum Minimum Average
Greer 0.00 10.7 -8.2 80 54 67
Columbia 0.02 8.3 -8.7 83 56 69
Augusta, GA 0.01 10.9 -6.2 84 53 69
Cheraw* 1.43 8.8 -8.3 83 54 68
Chester* 0.41 9.6 -8.0 82 49 65
Johnston* 1.45 7.7 -10.9 84 50 68
Sumter* 1.27 10.3 -6.3 83 55 69
Clemson* 0.21 8.1 -13.3 77 50 63
Florence 0.56 9.6 -5.3 82 56 69
Myrtle Beach 0.37 12.7 -1.2 75 56 65
Allendale* 0.97 11.8 -4.6 83 52 68
Charleston 0.18 13.3 -1.6 84 60 72
Beaufort* 1.26 9.9 -4.8 83 62 73
</pre>

[Stormsfury]

National Drought Monitor ...



Drought Severity By Index (CPC)



South Carolina Climatological Drought History and average/Historical Palmer Drought Severity Index

http://water.dnr.state.sc.us/climate/sc ... _hist.html

[jshetley]

I don't really remember 1980 that much but I'll agree that 1986 was brutal. June and July that year were awful with temps where I live up to 107 two times. As for rainfall it was dry from Jan through July with severe drought conditions.

[Stormsfury]

I don't really remember 1980 that much but I'll agree that 1986 was brutal. June and July that year were awful with temps where I live up to 107 two times. As for rainfall it was dry from Jan through July with severe drought conditions.

1980 was a brutal year with basically a nationwide drought ... TX caught it extremely bad with Dallas seeing something like 56 straight days over 100º and virtually no rain in that same amount of time ... it was also quite hot and dry in the East and Southeast as well .. (I was 8 during that summer so I vaguely remember)...

June and July 1986 was extremely hot, and the hottest July of record to this point for South Carolina ... I believe Columbia hit 109º, Charleston hit 104º on July 19th, and 20th (which was the all-time record until August 1st, 1999 with 105º) .. the ONLY relief we even had were the backdoor cold fronts which lasted 12-24 hours at the most before returning to the north ... Finally, the ridge shifted west (retrograded) and the rains finally returned (at least to lower South Carolina with August bringing over 13" of rain in Charleston) but TX, and OK saw temperatures well into the 110's!!

SF

[jshetley]

August was a wet month where I live, but the wet weather was more isolated here in the upstate. The town of Lockhart, about 20 miles from where I live, got Flooded really bad one night with water about 3-4 feet deep over almost the entire place. The city of Newberry, closer to Columbia, also had some serious flooding.Further west towards the Ga. border conditions were much drier.

[Stormsfury]

August was a wet month where I live, but the wet weather was more isolated here in the upstate. The town of Lockhart, about 20 miles from where I live, got Flooded really bad one night with water about 3-4 feet deep over almost the entire place. The city of Newberry, closer to Columbia, also had some serious flooding.Further west towards the Ga. border conditions were much drier.

I remember that the thunderstorm activity returned in earnest during August ... several outbreaks of severe weather occurred with backdoor cold fronts that pushed in from North Carolina from the NE (ala summertime wedging). As the strong upper ridging aloft retrograded westward, South Carolina was on the Eastern end of the "Ring of Fire" ...

One August evening brought a round of particularly nasty thunderstorms which produced 60 mph winds and 1" diameter hail on I-26 around the 217 Mile Marker ...

I created some maps for July 19th-20th, 1986 which happened to be two of the hottest days in South Carolina that year, however, for most of South Carolina, daily temperatures over 100º was the rule...

July 19th, 1986 12z 500mb heights

July 20th, 1986 12z 500mb heights

July 20th, 1986 850mb temperatures at 12z

July 21st, 1986 0z 850mb temperatures (July 20th, 1986 8 pm EDT)

[donsutherland1]

Summer 1980 was among the hottest ever in the Mid-Atlantic and even lower New England.

The mean temperature for June through August was as follows for select cities:

Boston: 72.1° (Tied, 17th hottest)
New York City: 76.6° (Tied, 6th hottest)
Washington, DC: 80.0° (Hottest on record)

[vbhoutex]

Summer of 1980 was indeed brutal here in Houston also!! We did not have 56 days over 100º- we only had 39 days over 100º. And DRY, DRY DRY!!!!

In contrast this year we are almost 11" ahead for precip so far this year!! Temps are steadily moving upward, but staying near normal so far.

[PTrackerLA]

We've been extremely wet for the past several weeks. The airport here has already recorded over 13" of rain for the month! Add april in there and that's close to 22 inches of rain since April! Looks like we have another shot of heavy rain tomorrow and then chances will start dwindling for the rest of the week with temps possibly hitting 90 for the first time this weekend.

[StormCrazyIowan]

I just about panicked when I read this topic, 1993 for me certainly wasn't dry, ahem the Great Flood of '93'!!

[Guest]

I just about panicked when I read this topic, 1993 for me certainly wasn't dry, ahem the Great Flood of '93'!!

I was wondering why all this "drought" talk was happening . It definitely was not dry. I thought we went the wrong way, instead of going to St. Louis, I thought we went north to Minnesota. Fields were lakes.

[Colin]

I have a chance of showers and thunderstorms just about every day for the next 1-2 weeks!