Strong Burmuda High This Early???

[Windtalker]

Living along the East Coast of Fl, I can only remember 1 other time that the sustained winds from an early burmuda High (In May) caused so much problems...IE: rip tides, beach erosion ect...and that was in 1991. Sustained winds so far this month are about 17mph. My question is..... Does a strong early burmuda High have any relationship to the hurricanes that threaten the US coastline by not allowing them to curve early thus threatening Florida's East Coast , Georgia and S. Carolina?

[robag]

I am also wondering about these winds. It has been the windiest Spring I can remember here in Key Largo. The seas are consistently 8 feet out on the reef.

[wxman57]

I've noticed the same thing here in Texas. We've had a deep onshore (SE) flow this May which has kept our highs down to the low-mid 80s. Last May we hit 90+ almost every day. What I think we're seeing is a move towards a positive North Atlantic Oscillation. That means the protective east coast trof should be weaker this season. This is the period when the Gulf and east U.S. coast are quite vulnerable to hurricane hits. The NAO won't be too far positive to increase the shear in the lower tropcis, but far enough to prevent many of those powerful hurricanes from recurving into the open Atlantic.

Besides Florida, I think Texas has a good shot at a strong storm. Most likely, that would be in August. Remember, 1980 and 1988 are analog years (Allen and Gilbert).

[AussieMark]

Besides Florida, I think Texas has a good shot at a strong storm. Most likely, that would be in August. Remember, 1980 and 1988 are analog years (Allen and Gilbert).

1961 is also a analog year also and that resulted in Carla.

I didn't know 1988 was a analog year for this year though.

I thought it was

1958, 1961, 1980, 2001

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/fo ... april2004/

[Aquawind]

Some of the NWS discussions have already mentioned the bermuda high in place..something we haven't had much of for the last 2 years.. Not good...Strong Bermuda High and Ridging along the east coast = much greater landfall.. Some scary fish in recent years may not be all fish this year...Hopefully Bermuda will have a quiet year..

[wxman57]

Besides Florida, I think Texas has a good shot at a strong storm. Most likely, that would be in August. Remember, 1980 and 1988 are analog years (Allen and Gilbert).

1961 is also a analog year also and that resulted in Carla.

I didn't know 1988 was a analog year for this year though.

I thought it was

1958, 1961, 1980, 2001

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/fo ... april2004/

We were looking at some other analogs that put 1988 in there.

[ncweatherwizard]

Have to agree...the setup w/ the Bermuda High looks pretty similar to last year's situation, except it might be a little stronger this time. Sure everybody remembers the dominant subtrop ridge that controlled much of the Atlantic through September last year. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised to see a pattern like that again this year (since it's there), which could mean something for states farther south than my own if a storm threatens in August or early September for instance...of course that would be assuming an event timed parallel to last year--got a few months to see how things shape up.

[hurricanetrack]

I am so impressed at all of the knowledge on this board. It is great to read intelligent posts from you folks. Just thought I would throw that in there.

[Guest]

In the past few years the Azores High was the more dominant with the Bermuda High just riding shotgun,this year however the Bermuda High seems to be the stronger feature.

[wxman57]

Well, the Bermuda high wasn't THAT strong last September. It had a pretty good weakness during the middle part of the month that allowed Fabian to turn north well east of the U.S. But the North Atlantic has had a dominant negative NAO since 1995, leading to a weaker Bermuda high and recurvature farther east. I think the Pacific swinging toward a cold-phase PDO recently may be the signal for the negative NAO to depart, allowing a gradual building westward of the Bermuda high in coming seasons.

[wx247]

I am so impressed at all of the knowledge on this board. It is great to read intelligent posts from you folks. Just thought I would throw that in there.

Agreed. Just wait until we are in the thick of things. That is when all this knowledge really shines through.

[Anonymous]

I would just like to point out that this is one way in which landfall forecasts can be made before the season. The method in which these forecasts are made are a lot different than making a 5-day forecast track. Sure the same factors like the AH and BH are involved, but we're looking for a long term pattern that will hold throughout most of the season. Good thread

[Aquawind]

From Today's NWS Discussion...plenty of high pressure and ridging again mentioned..been a couple weeks now..Rainy Season/Cane Season are getting ready alrighty..

.LONG TERM(MON NIGHT-SAT)...PERSISTENCE FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN THE
BEST SOLUTION. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED HERE THE PAST SEVERAL SHIFTS...
THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE FOR MOST AREAS AS UPPER RIDGE HOLDS
AND SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF.
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT HEIGHT FALL AT
500 MB WHICH WOULD WEAKEN THE SFC RIDGE AND SAG IT SOUTH.

[Rainband]

I am so impressed at all of the knowledge on this board. It is great to read intelligent posts from you folks. Just thought I would throw that in there.

I agree 100% I have learned so much in the time I have spent here. Many talented individuals to say the least!! BTW Mark. I love the Chase vehicle

[cycloneye]

If the bermuda high holds like it is right now then here in Puerto Rico and the islands we will see less recurving storms and more threats towards us.

[dixiebreeze]

Glad to see this thread, confirms what I've been thinking and watching in the Atlantic. The high is remindful of last year, but stronger and earlier, I believe.

[Windtalker]

Thanks for all the help in understanding folks....Local Mets here in South Florida say the high is in place for a very long time which will result in windy condictions, rip currents ect in the forseeable future. (sorry for any mis spelled words) I do believe there will be less recurvatures this season.