I might actually get some of this today

[Suzi Q]

I TRIED to get out to the rain gauge, still no luck. Will brave it again shortly. All I know is it has been raining HARD virtually nonstop since the last time I posted. So far, a few flooding problems but nothing I couldn't drive through. Plus I gotta go get kitty food tonight after ER so the babies will have food while we're gone.

Everyone PLEASE be careful out there. This is NOT a situation to be toyed with.

Oh, and can I tell you how fun it is gassing up BOTH tanks on my truck during a lightning storm? Really makes you believe in the power of prayer. Also REALLY makes you look like a moron..............

Suz

[Suzi Q]

Ok, neighbor already emptied FULL gauge once, which is 6", got another 8/10th's in there right now.

My fishies are SO HAPPY!!!!!!!!! Looks like a long night for me comprised of packing and keeping an eye on my stray fishies that try to swim downstream.......

Have no idea if this has any significance, but they were spawning something fierce early this morning before the torrential rain came. What did they know that I didn't?

[GalvestonDuck]

LOL @ myself now! "might actually get some of this????"

Bahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!

Okay, it can stop now!!!!!

After work, I had to wade a full block and a half through water (and I only live two blocks away). The water has subsided but the rain continues -- heavy, then steady, then torrentially heavy again.

Also, I saw an AWESOME lightning strike. Hopefully it was over the water and no one got hit. I just know it was out towards Stewart Beach and it was close. It was a sharp, crisp, vivid, bright, beautiful bolt and it was thick, which is why I think it was close. There wasn't really even time to count between the lightning and the thunder. Wish I'd had a camera!

[azskyman]

You people don't have a clear spot on the entire radar! Good luck, and be careful near any low lying areas...like get your beds up off the floor tonight!!!!

Hope all are safe!

[vbhoutex]

I'm only at 2" so far for this episode, but that brings us up to over 6" in the last week here at the house. It is still raining and has been since early this afternoon. Like stated there isn't an open spot on the radar and if you look at state radar that goes out West of us for over 300 miles!!!! We are expecting 6" more rain by tomorrow afternoon!!!!! We are moving into a SERIOUS FLOOD SITUATION, definitely the worst we have faced since Allison unless the progs are incorrect.

Suzi it is good that you are taking flotation gear. I'm serious!!!

Like Duck said-"IT CAN STOP NOW"!!!!

[southerngale]

Yep David, I was just looking at the radar and way out to our west.....rain rain rain. It hasn't stopped here in like forever, sometimes heavy and sometimes light but TONS of thunder and lightning with it. I've dumped a little over 5 inches from my rain gauge here at my house and a lot more in the forecast for tomorrow and Saturday.

*builds an ark for her Texas and Louisiana pals*

[vbhoutex]

I must say the radar looks a lot better than it did last night. I'm not being fooled by that though with the heating of the day to come along with the front still approaching from the West. We have had 2.22" here at the house(yesterday) so I'm not currently in the shape SG or SQ are but nonetheless WE ARE SATURATED with water standing everywhere in the yard and if you venture off the patio or sidewalks you sink. Still more to come according to local OCM's so we will be keeping an eye to the sky and the weather radio on alert!

[KatDaddy]

Hey VB how is it going? I have not heard what the locals are saying but curious to hear what they forecast.

Listed below is a link to a model run I check daily. MRF, ETA, and AVN all showing high QPF especially the MRF. It show 13" of rain over the next 24-48hours. Whats frightening about this scenario is all three models show high QPF.

Also this mornings forecast discussion indicates the GFS is forecasted QPF in the teens and has been highly accurate with recent QPF forecasts.

Next check out the watervapor satellite........very deep moisture in place across S and E Texas. Now add in a weak front and day time heating.

DISCUSSION...
VORT NEAR VCT IS FCST TO MOVE UP THE COAST. IT SHOULD COMBINE WITH A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL PRECIP THRU THE
DAY--ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. DRIER AIR HAS BEEN MOVING INTO
NRN PARTS OF THE AREA PER GPS SOUNDER PRECIP H20 READINGS AND VWP'S
UPSTREAM. AFTER MUCH COORDINATION WITH HPC THRU THE NIGHT... WILL
PLACE THE HIGHER QPF TOTALS NEAR THE COAST (2-3")...1-2" I-10
CORRIDOR...AND 1" OR LESS FURTHER NORTH. THIS IS PRETTY MUCH CUTTING
THE 12-HOUR 00Z GFS QPF AMOUNTS IN HALF AND SOMEWHAT MORE
PESSIMISTIC THAN WHAT MY GUT IS TELLING ME WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN.

00Z ETA IS MUCH DRIER AND THE 06Z GFS IS CURRENTLY COMING IN DRIER
TOO. NONE OF THE MODELS INITIALIZED SHOWING THE STRONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT MOVED OFF THE COAST LAST NIGHT...NOR THE SQUALL LINE
THAT MOVED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH TX OVERNIGHT. COMBINATION OF THE
TWO PROBABLY LIMITING THE EXTENT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE INLAND.

ONLY THING THAT CONCERNS ME...& CONCERNS ME A LOT...IT GFS RECENT
TRACK RECORD OF NAILING THESE HIGH QPF EVENTS RECENTLY. FOR THE
RECORD...THE 00Z GFS IS TAKING THE VORT TO OUR SW AND STALLING OVER
SE TX THRU SAT...PRODUCING TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS IN THE TEENS ACROSS
SOME SOUTHERN & EASTERN LOCATIONS. THIS WOULD HAVE OBVIOUS
DEVASTATING EFFECTS IF IT WERE TO OCCUR. WILL HAVE TO GO WITH WHAT
WE SEE IN THE REAL WORLD THOUGH - WHICH SHOULD HAVE A MUCH BETTER
OUTCOME. ONE CAVEAT THOUGH...GROUND IS SATURATED AND EVEN MODERATE
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE RUNOFF ISSUES SO WE'RE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS
JUST YET. HENCE WILL LEAVE UP THE FFA.

FRONT SHROUD STALL NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT THEN MOVE BACK INLAND
LATE SAT OR SUN. WILL CONTINUE CHANCES OF RAIN THRU THE WEEKEND AS
MOISTURE REMAINS ON THE MODERATE TO HIGH SIDE & A BOUNDARY SITS IN
THE AREA.

[Suzi Q]

Well, latest radar looks MUCH better and we're planning on heading out around 9:00 AM or so. From what I hear, looks like we may run into another round either on the way, or up there. Time will tell. Ya'll keep us in your thoughts as we travel up to Big D. I'll check in with ya'll when we get there.

Suz

[vbhoutex]

I DO NOT LIKE THAT DISCUSSION!!!! And it is what I was concerned about also. This time of year is when our fronts do stall on the coast. We already have one large area of precip swinging across the GOM to our S and as things progress today I would not be surprised to see a close semblance of the discussion scenario happening in the next 48. ANYTHING CLOSE TO TO QPF's(even half of) in the discussion will be DISASTER for our area as anything that falls will be runoff and the bayous and streams are all already at or near capacity and rising and almost all of them have flood advisories through the weekend already.

I've seen at least one local OCM(FB @ Ch 2) calling for up to 6" more by this afternoon. Radar does not indicate that happening at this point, but we have not experienced the heating of the day yet and the front is still well to our North and West. Once that happens and if any sea breeze sets up we are in for another SOAKING. I HOPE I AM WRONG!!!! As always time will tell. We'll do our best to keep you posted.

[vbhoutex]

Currently it appears that the all night rains have stabilized things suffeiciently that we are not going to have the problems that were progged for today. However, if anything does build we will have a problem due to the facts already stated above.