Hey Louisiana...

[Steve]

I caught this on Hurricane Alley's forecast for Region 7. I don't know if I agree, but I think they based it on analogs derived from matching 80% of 32 variables. Does anyone know how the Alley did last year?

http://hurricanealley.net/images/region7landcty.jpg

http://hurricanealley.net/impactreg7.html

Peace

Steve

[bevgo]

Not good! May have to make that move from New Orleans to the Miss Gulf Coast sooner. Just kidding but it does look like I will be moving to the MS coast in Sept. Right at the peak of the season.
Go Figure. I do like storms and tracking would not be as much fun if there was little chance of being affected. I don't wishcast and really don't want to ever see another storm in my area but the adrenalin rush when one is headed this way..........

[cajungal]

I did not know the Houma area would be high risk for this year. I love tracking storms; too and I get an adreneline rush also when it looks like we will get one. But, I don't wish it because of the damage and severe flooding. It has been a long time since the Houma area has seen some real action. We always get under a warning almost every year. Board up the house and get the supplies. Then, at the last minute, it turns away from us.

[Rainband]

Like previously stated...The key is to be prepared No matter how many near misses a region gets, it's the one that comes a calling that counts

[Steve]

>>I did not know the Houma area would be high risk for this year. I love tracking storms; too and I get an adreneline rush also when it looks like we will get one. But, I don't wish it because of the damage and severe flooding. It has been a long time since the Houma area has seen some real action. We always get under a warning almost every year. Board up the house and get the supplies. Then, at the last minute, it turns away from us.

It's the opinion of one website. I was wondering if anyone followed their predictions from last year, but I guess not. You guys got lucky for Lili because they got hammered down the bayou in Dulac.

Steve

[cajungal]

Actually, Dulac is not that far from us. But, we are further inland, so they are going to get more effects than us. We got some gusty winds from Lili, but nothing big. The only thing big that happened here was Andrew. Winds got clocked to 100 mph here and lost power for 8 days.

[hcane]

The past 2 years forecasts are on the Hurricane Alley web site.
You can find them at

http://www.hurricanealey.net/verif2002.htm

http://www.hurricanealey.net/verif2003.htm[/url]

[PTrackerLA]

Lili gave me enough of an adrenaline rush to give me a heart attack! They were progging 135 mph sustained winds right through the heart of Lafayette only a few hours before she weakened. Luckily she did but there was still plenty of damage from the 80-90mph winds in Lafayette. I don't like how an analog of this year is 2002 but we'll just have to wait and see what happens. One thing for sure is the summertime rains have started early this year. Good chance of afternoon showers/t-storms for the next 7 days.

If anyone wants to look back at some of the damage in Lafayette, this website has a nice collection. http://lafayettedata.net/lili/

[wxman57]

The past 2 years forecasts are on the Hurricane Alley web site.
You can find them at

http://www.hurricanealey.net/verif2002.htm

http://www.hurricanealey.net/verif2003.htm[/url]

You have several typos there in the links - need to add another "l" in alley:

http://www.hurricanealley.net/verif2002.htm

http://www.hurricanealley.net/verif2003.htm

As for the forecasts from Hurricane Alley, their methodology of looking at analog years and concentration on weather patterns vs. just number of storms is good, but they really don't go into how they came up with the regional impacts. Many of the areas they pick for landfalls during peak season (Aug-Sep) have a greater than 50% and sometimes near 60% chance of occurring each year according to climo, so one might have a better than 50/50 shot of guessing right just looking at climo alone.

But I do believe we need to concentrate on weather patterns vs. number of storms. The numbers really are meaningless. We've had many devastating seasons with a below-average number of storms and vice-versa.

[hcane]

The forecast methodology can be found in the pdf document.

http://www.hurricanealley.net/HAFrcstMthd.pdf

As to the climo topic. Seems that there are other "climo" regions with high probabilities that are not in the forecast for landfall. And is not climo the basis for the argument for the saying "we are overdue". With events such as tropical cyclones there is truly no such concept as "overdue". That would render the "climo" statement useless.