AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
135 PM EST SAT MAR 15 2003
SECOND UPDATE TO BUMP TEMPS UP BY AT LEAST A CAT AS TEMPS ARE AT OR
NEARING FORECASTED HIGHS NOW. SUNNY SKIES... LACK OF WIND... AND
WARMER AIR ALOFT ALL HELPING TO PUSH TEMPS UP. TAC
...SPRINGLIKE TEMPS TODAY AND SUNDAY...
SFC ANYLS SHOWS HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH FCST AREA IN GNRL
LOW LVL SRLY FLOW. MID LVL MSTR AND SOME --SHSN ASSCD WITH WAA ACRS
NRN NYS WILL BE MOVG OUT THIS MRNG. WE'LL PRBLY SEE SOME LINGERING
MID LVL CLDS ERLY THIS MRNG BUT XPCT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT FOR A MOSTLY
SUNNY AFTN. BASED ON 925 TEMPS PREFER A BLEND OF THE THE WARMER
MAV/ETA GUIDANCE, WHICH INDICATES MAXES FROM THE U40S TO A50, WITH
SOME LOWER 50S PSBL ACRS THE FINGER LAKES AND CNTRL SRN TIER.
MAINLY CLEAR TO PC SKIES TNGT. MINS AT MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. ON SUNDAY SOME INCREASE IN THE LOW LVL MSTR, SPCLY
EVIDENT IN THE ETA DATA. HOWEVER MSTR LOOKS SHALLOW ENUF THAT IT
SHUD MIX OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WILL BE A LTL MORE OPTIMISTIC
W/RESPECT TO CLD COVER ON SUNDAY AND GO WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
MAXES GNRLY 5-7 DEG WARMER THAN TDA, WITH SOME AREAS POTNLY GETTING
INTO THE L60S.
NEW RUNS ARE KEEPING ANY PCPN ASSCD WITH THE SE U.S. CUTOFF WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. IN ADDN, CDFNT STILL TO OUR NW, SO WILL REMOVE THE CHC OF
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY NGT. WILL LEAVE IN CHC POPS FOR MONDAY, AS WE
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS WITH THE CDFNT, ASSUMING THE FASTER ETA
VERIFIES. HOWEVER, WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED IF MONDAY ALSO ENDS UP
BEING DRY. NO CHGS TO LATTER PDS. BEST CHC FOR NXT SIG PCPN APPEARS
TO BE MID TO LATE WEEK. AS AN ASIDE...PTRN LOOKS CONDUCIVE TO A
FAIRLY SIG SVR WX EVENT FOR THE PLAINS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HEADWATER PTS THIS WEEKEND FOR POTNL ICE
EFFECTS ON SMALLER STREAMS. MAIN STEMS NOT XPCTD TO BE A PRBLM.
Northeast Flood Potential Associated With Ice Jams/Warmth
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
320 AM EST SAT MAR 15 2003
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY...
NONE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, MILD TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. ALTHOUGH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO THE SNOWMELT, ICE JAMS ARE A POSSIBILITY ON SMALLER
STREAMS AND CREEKS.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
320 AM EST SAT MAR 15 2003
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY...
NONE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, MILD TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. ALTHOUGH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO THE SNOWMELT, ICE JAMS ARE A POSSIBILITY ON SMALLER
STREAMS AND CREEKS.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1256 PM EST FRI MAR 14 2003
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK NUMBER 6.
THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR THE ONE WEEK PERIOD MARCH 14-21, 2003 AND
IS PRODUCED FOR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON HYDROLOGIC
SERVICE AREA. THIS AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY INCLUDES THE FINGER LAKES,
SENECA/OSWEGO RIVER AND ONEIDA LAKE WATERSHED, CHEMUNG RIVER BASIN,
SUSQUEHANNA RIVER BASIN (NORTH BRANCH) IN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND THE UPPER DELAWARE RIVER BASIN.
THE FOLLOWING OUTLOOK ESTIMATES THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER AND LAKE
FLOODING (NOT FLASH FLOODING) ACROSS THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BINGHAMTON SERVICE AREA. THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A CURRENT
ASSESSMENT OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER
AND LAKE FLOODING. THESE FACTORS INCLUDE RECENT PRECIPITATION, SOIL
MOISTURE, SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT, RIVER ICE, STREAM-
FLOW, FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS, AND OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT
ADDRESS THE SEVERITY OF ANY FUTURE FLOODING.
THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR THE ONE WEEK PERIOD MARCH 14-21, 2003 AND
IS PARTIALLY BASED ON THE LATEST NWS MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER OUTLOOKS.
FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA, THE 6-10 DAY
FORECAST FOR MARCH 19-23 SUGGESTS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
ABOVE AVERAGE AND PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.
ACROSS THE REGION... HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS
TO RIVER AND LAKE FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR, EVEN WHEN
OVERALL RIVER AND LAKE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW OR BELOW
AVERAGE.
CURRENT RIVER AND LAKE FLOOD POTENTIAL - AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE.
THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING (INCLUDING LOCALIZED FLOODING CAUSED
BY ICE JAMS) DURING THE NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BINGHAMTON'S HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA IS CONSIDERED TO BE
AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS ASSESSMENT OF
THE RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SEVERAL
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS, AS SUMMARIZED BELOW.
CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.
RECENT PRECIPITATION - AVERAGE. PRECIPITATION DURING THE LAST 60
DAYS (JANUARY 12-MARCH 12) HAD BEEN BELOW AVERAGE, BUT IN THE LAST
30 DAYS (FEBRUARY 12-MARCH 12 PRECIPITATION HAD BECOME CLOSER TO
NORMAL.
SNOW COVER CONDITIONS - AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE. WEST OF THE A LINE
THROUGH SYRACUSE, BINGHAMTON AND WILKES-BARRE (THE I-81 CORRIDOR)
SNOW COVER CONDITIONS FOR MID-MARCH WERE NEAR NORMAL. EAST OF THIS
LINE THE SNOWPACK CONDITIONS ARE ABOVE AVERAGE. JUST BEFORE
YESTERDAY'S SNOW, BARE GROUND WAS EXPANDING IN THE URBANIZED VALLEY
AREA. BUT YESTERDAY'S SNOWFALL BROUGHT BACK A CONTINUOUS SNOW COVER
TO THE REGION. CURRENT SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM JUST A FEW INCHES TO
THREE FEET.
ACCORDING TO RECENT GROUND AND AERIAL SNOW SURVEYS PERFORMED BY
THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS, THE NWS NATIONAL OPERATIONAL
HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER, AND OTHER COOPERATING AGENCIES,
CORRESPONDING SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES GENERALLY RANGE AS
FOLLOWS:
FINGER LAKES WATERSHED REGION HAVE SNOW DEPTHS RANGING FROM A FEW
TENTHS TO 9 INCHES AND PATCHY 12 TO 18 INCHES IN THE WOODS AND ON
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW RANGES 0.5 TO 3
INCHES. THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DEEP WOODS ARE HOLDING PATCHY AMOUNTS
RANGING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT. NORMAL WATER EQUIVALENTS
FOR MID MARCH RANGE FROM A TRACE TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THIS REGION.
THE ONEIDA LAKE WATERSHED HAS A HIGHER THAN NORMAL SNOWPACK AND
WATER EQUIVALENT. GENERALLY 12 TO 24 INCHES OF SNOW DEPTH BLANKETS
THE WATERSHED AND WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGES 3 TO 8 INCHES. FOR MID
MARCH, NORMAL VALUES TYPICALLY AVERAGE 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE WATERSHED WITH PATCHY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN
ONEIDA COUNTY.
ACROSS THE HEADWATERS OF THE CHEMUNG RIVER BASIN SNOW DEPTHS RANGE
FROM A FEW TENTHS TO 15 INCHES. THE WATER EQUIVALENT OF THIS
SNOWPACK AVERAGES JUST UNDER 3 INCHES. THIS IS A NEAR NORMAL
SNOWPACK FOR THIS REGION.
ACROSS THE UPPER REACHES OF THE SUSQUEHANNA, CHENANGO, OTSELIC,
TIOUGHNIOGA AND UNADILLA RIVERS IN NEW YORK SNOWPACK RANGES FROM 6
INCHES TO TWO FEET. THE WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM 2 TO 6 INCHES.
A WATER EQUIVALENT OF NEAR 3 INCHES WOULD BE TYPICAL FOR MID-MARCH
SO THE REGION RANGES FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL SNOWPACK.
ACROSS THE UPPER DELAWARE RIVER BASIN SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM A FEW
TENTHS TO TWO FEET. THE WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM A FEW TENTHS TO
A HIGH 12 INCHES (ONE REPORT). THE OVERALL AVERAGE FOR THE BASIN
IS 3 TO 5 INCHES. A WATER EQUIVALENT OF NEAR 3 INCHES WOULD BE
TYPICAL FOR MID-MARCH SO THE REGION RANGES FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE
NORMAL SNOWPACK. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE LOCALIZED IN THE DEEP WOODS
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THERE IS ONE AREA THAT HAS A MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL SNOW PACK. THIS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL SNOW REGION IS ACROSS
THE UPPER LACKAWANNA RIVER BASIN WHICH SPANS NORTHERN LACKAWANNA
COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF SUSQUEHANNA AND WAYNE COUNTIES. SNOW DEPTHS
RANGE FROM 18 TO 30 INCHES, AND THE WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES 6 TO 9
INCHES. A TYPICAL MID-MARCH WATER EQUIVALENT SHOULD BE LESS THAN 3
INCHES MAKING THIS YEAR'S SNOWPACK MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
RIVER ICE CONDITIONS - ABOVE AVERAGE. MOST OF THE LARGER RIVER
REACHES ARE ICE FREE. BUT DUE TO THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES OF
THE PAST FEW WEEKS THERE STILL EXISTS SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF THICKER
SHEET ICE. THIS ICE REMAINING IN RIVERS CONTINUES TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR THIS LATE IN THE WINTER SEASON HOWEVER THE THREAT THAT THIS ICE
PRESENTS FOR SIGNIFICANT RIVER ICE JAMMING IS GREATLY REDUCED.
ICE ON THE SMALLER RIVERS AND CREEKS IN THE UPPER BASINS IS PATCHY.
IN LOCALIZED AREAS SOME THICKENING AND RE-FREEZING OF RUNOFF ON TOP
OF OLDER ICE HAS OCCURRED. SOME SMALLER ICE JAMS MAY OCCUR AS RUNOFF
FROM WARMER TEMPERATURES CAUSES ICE BREAKUP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
STREAM CONDITIONS - NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. MEAN STREAM FLOWS ARE
TYPICALLY THE HIGHEST FOR THE YEAR DURING MARCH DUE TO MELTING SNOW
AND RUNOFF. THE COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS YEAR HAS DELAYED
THIS LATER WINTER MELT OFF AND THIS IS REFLECTED WITH SEVERAL AREAS
OF BELOW NORMAL FLOWS. AS WARMER TEMPERATURES BEGIN THIS WEEKEND
STREAM FLOWS WILL BE APPROACHING NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS - ABOVE AVERAGE. THE LATEST PALMER DROUGHT
SEVERITY INDEX CHART (MARCH 8, 2003) IMPLIES THAT SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ARE UNUSUALLY MOIST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THIS CONCLUSION IS SUPPORTED BY OTHER SOIL MOISTURE ANALYSIS CHARTS
FROM THE NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION'S (NOAA)
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER.
GROUND WATER - AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE. CURRENT GROUND WATER LEVELS
RANGE FROM AROUND AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID MARCH ACROSS THE
AREA.
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE. MOST WATER SUPPLY
RESERVOIRS AROUND THE REGION ARE HOLDING AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE
STORAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FLOOD CONTROL RESERVOIRS ARE
GENERALLY AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR MID MARCH.
FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH LIGHT RAIN FOR THE REGION POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. BY THURSDAY A STORM SYSTEM MAY TRACK NEAR THE REGION
BRINGING POSSIBLY A MODERATE RAINFALL TO THE REGION. FOR THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S AND THE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. THIS WILL BEGIN A
FAIRLY TYPICAL (GRADUAL) LATE WINTER SNOWPACK MELT DOWN. MOST LIKELY
THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE RUNOFF INTO NEXT WEEK. AT
PRESENT, THERE ARE NO STRONG INDICATIONS OF ANY UNSEASONABLY WARM
PERIODS WHICH WOULD HASTEN THE SNOW MELT PROCESSES. THE POSSIBILITY
OF A DEVELOPING RAIN EVENT LATER NEXT WEEK WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY.
ANOTHER TOOL USED TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER/SPRING FLOODING
IN THE MARFC AREA IS CALLED AHPS, ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICES. ONE COMPONENT OF AHPS IS THE GENERATION OF PROBABILISTIC
RIVER FORECASTS BASED ON CURRENT BASIN CONDITIONS (RIVER LEVELS, SOIL
MOISTURE, EXTENT AND CONDITION OF ANY SNOWPACK) ALONG WITH 50 YEARS
OF HISTORIC TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DATA.
THIS AHPS TECHNIQUE HAS BEEN APPLIED TO THE SUSQUEHANNA AND DELAWARE
RIVER SYSTEMS. 30-DAY PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS FOR THESE BASINS SHOW
THAT THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING DURING THE NEXT 30 DAYS IS
APPROXIMATELY TWICE AS LIKELY AS HAS BEEN HISTORICALLY OBSERVED IN
THE SUSQUEHANNA AND DELAWARE BASINS. THIS INCREASE IN FLOOD POTENTIAL
DURING THE NEXT 30 DAYS IS PRIMARILY AS RESULT OF THE HEAVY SNOWPACK.
SUMMARY - THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING DURING THE NEXT WEEK IS
AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF MARCH.
WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK - NO WATER SUPPLY SHORTAGES ARE ANTICIPATED
ANYWHERE WITHIN THE MARFC REGION DURING THE NEXT SIX MONTHS. THIS
ASSUMES THAT PRECIPITATION AVERAGED OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SIX
MONTHS WILL END UP REASONABLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED WINTER FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
THIS OFFICE IN ONE WEEK, ON FRIDAY, MARCH 21, 2003.
MUCH MORE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION FOR THE NATION AND OUR
REGION CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
PAGES ON THE INTERNET. A CLICK-ABLE NATIONAL MAP AT THE ADDRESS BELOW
CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE TO FURTHER DETAILED HYDROLOGIC AND
METEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION AND GRAPHICS.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1256 PM EST FRI MAR 14 2003
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK NUMBER 6.
THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR THE ONE WEEK PERIOD MARCH 14-21, 2003 AND
IS PRODUCED FOR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON HYDROLOGIC
SERVICE AREA. THIS AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY INCLUDES THE FINGER LAKES,
SENECA/OSWEGO RIVER AND ONEIDA LAKE WATERSHED, CHEMUNG RIVER BASIN,
SUSQUEHANNA RIVER BASIN (NORTH BRANCH) IN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND THE UPPER DELAWARE RIVER BASIN.
THE FOLLOWING OUTLOOK ESTIMATES THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER AND LAKE
FLOODING (NOT FLASH FLOODING) ACROSS THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BINGHAMTON SERVICE AREA. THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A CURRENT
ASSESSMENT OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER
AND LAKE FLOODING. THESE FACTORS INCLUDE RECENT PRECIPITATION, SOIL
MOISTURE, SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT, RIVER ICE, STREAM-
FLOW, FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS, AND OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT
ADDRESS THE SEVERITY OF ANY FUTURE FLOODING.
THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR THE ONE WEEK PERIOD MARCH 14-21, 2003 AND
IS PARTIALLY BASED ON THE LATEST NWS MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER OUTLOOKS.
FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA, THE 6-10 DAY
FORECAST FOR MARCH 19-23 SUGGESTS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
ABOVE AVERAGE AND PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.
ACROSS THE REGION... HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS
TO RIVER AND LAKE FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR, EVEN WHEN
OVERALL RIVER AND LAKE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW OR BELOW
AVERAGE.
CURRENT RIVER AND LAKE FLOOD POTENTIAL - AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE.
THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING (INCLUDING LOCALIZED FLOODING CAUSED
BY ICE JAMS) DURING THE NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BINGHAMTON'S HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA IS CONSIDERED TO BE
AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS ASSESSMENT OF
THE RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SEVERAL
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS, AS SUMMARIZED BELOW.
CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.
RECENT PRECIPITATION - AVERAGE. PRECIPITATION DURING THE LAST 60
DAYS (JANUARY 12-MARCH 12) HAD BEEN BELOW AVERAGE, BUT IN THE LAST
30 DAYS (FEBRUARY 12-MARCH 12 PRECIPITATION HAD BECOME CLOSER TO
NORMAL.
SNOW COVER CONDITIONS - AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE. WEST OF THE A LINE
THROUGH SYRACUSE, BINGHAMTON AND WILKES-BARRE (THE I-81 CORRIDOR)
SNOW COVER CONDITIONS FOR MID-MARCH WERE NEAR NORMAL. EAST OF THIS
LINE THE SNOWPACK CONDITIONS ARE ABOVE AVERAGE. JUST BEFORE
YESTERDAY'S SNOW, BARE GROUND WAS EXPANDING IN THE URBANIZED VALLEY
AREA. BUT YESTERDAY'S SNOWFALL BROUGHT BACK A CONTINUOUS SNOW COVER
TO THE REGION. CURRENT SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM JUST A FEW INCHES TO
THREE FEET.
ACCORDING TO RECENT GROUND AND AERIAL SNOW SURVEYS PERFORMED BY
THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS, THE NWS NATIONAL OPERATIONAL
HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER, AND OTHER COOPERATING AGENCIES,
CORRESPONDING SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES GENERALLY RANGE AS
FOLLOWS:
FINGER LAKES WATERSHED REGION HAVE SNOW DEPTHS RANGING FROM A FEW
TENTHS TO 9 INCHES AND PATCHY 12 TO 18 INCHES IN THE WOODS AND ON
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW RANGES 0.5 TO 3
INCHES. THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DEEP WOODS ARE HOLDING PATCHY AMOUNTS
RANGING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT. NORMAL WATER EQUIVALENTS
FOR MID MARCH RANGE FROM A TRACE TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THIS REGION.
THE ONEIDA LAKE WATERSHED HAS A HIGHER THAN NORMAL SNOWPACK AND
WATER EQUIVALENT. GENERALLY 12 TO 24 INCHES OF SNOW DEPTH BLANKETS
THE WATERSHED AND WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGES 3 TO 8 INCHES. FOR MID
MARCH, NORMAL VALUES TYPICALLY AVERAGE 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE WATERSHED WITH PATCHY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN
ONEIDA COUNTY.
ACROSS THE HEADWATERS OF THE CHEMUNG RIVER BASIN SNOW DEPTHS RANGE
FROM A FEW TENTHS TO 15 INCHES. THE WATER EQUIVALENT OF THIS
SNOWPACK AVERAGES JUST UNDER 3 INCHES. THIS IS A NEAR NORMAL
SNOWPACK FOR THIS REGION.
ACROSS THE UPPER REACHES OF THE SUSQUEHANNA, CHENANGO, OTSELIC,
TIOUGHNIOGA AND UNADILLA RIVERS IN NEW YORK SNOWPACK RANGES FROM 6
INCHES TO TWO FEET. THE WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM 2 TO 6 INCHES.
A WATER EQUIVALENT OF NEAR 3 INCHES WOULD BE TYPICAL FOR MID-MARCH
SO THE REGION RANGES FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL SNOWPACK.
ACROSS THE UPPER DELAWARE RIVER BASIN SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM A FEW
TENTHS TO TWO FEET. THE WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM A FEW TENTHS TO
A HIGH 12 INCHES (ONE REPORT). THE OVERALL AVERAGE FOR THE BASIN
IS 3 TO 5 INCHES. A WATER EQUIVALENT OF NEAR 3 INCHES WOULD BE
TYPICAL FOR MID-MARCH SO THE REGION RANGES FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE
NORMAL SNOWPACK. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE LOCALIZED IN THE DEEP WOODS
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THERE IS ONE AREA THAT HAS A MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL SNOW PACK. THIS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL SNOW REGION IS ACROSS
THE UPPER LACKAWANNA RIVER BASIN WHICH SPANS NORTHERN LACKAWANNA
COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF SUSQUEHANNA AND WAYNE COUNTIES. SNOW DEPTHS
RANGE FROM 18 TO 30 INCHES, AND THE WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES 6 TO 9
INCHES. A TYPICAL MID-MARCH WATER EQUIVALENT SHOULD BE LESS THAN 3
INCHES MAKING THIS YEAR'S SNOWPACK MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
RIVER ICE CONDITIONS - ABOVE AVERAGE. MOST OF THE LARGER RIVER
REACHES ARE ICE FREE. BUT DUE TO THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES OF
THE PAST FEW WEEKS THERE STILL EXISTS SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF THICKER
SHEET ICE. THIS ICE REMAINING IN RIVERS CONTINUES TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR THIS LATE IN THE WINTER SEASON HOWEVER THE THREAT THAT THIS ICE
PRESENTS FOR SIGNIFICANT RIVER ICE JAMMING IS GREATLY REDUCED.
ICE ON THE SMALLER RIVERS AND CREEKS IN THE UPPER BASINS IS PATCHY.
IN LOCALIZED AREAS SOME THICKENING AND RE-FREEZING OF RUNOFF ON TOP
OF OLDER ICE HAS OCCURRED. SOME SMALLER ICE JAMS MAY OCCUR AS RUNOFF
FROM WARMER TEMPERATURES CAUSES ICE BREAKUP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
STREAM CONDITIONS - NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. MEAN STREAM FLOWS ARE
TYPICALLY THE HIGHEST FOR THE YEAR DURING MARCH DUE TO MELTING SNOW
AND RUNOFF. THE COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS YEAR HAS DELAYED
THIS LATER WINTER MELT OFF AND THIS IS REFLECTED WITH SEVERAL AREAS
OF BELOW NORMAL FLOWS. AS WARMER TEMPERATURES BEGIN THIS WEEKEND
STREAM FLOWS WILL BE APPROACHING NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS - ABOVE AVERAGE. THE LATEST PALMER DROUGHT
SEVERITY INDEX CHART (MARCH 8, 2003) IMPLIES THAT SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ARE UNUSUALLY MOIST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THIS CONCLUSION IS SUPPORTED BY OTHER SOIL MOISTURE ANALYSIS CHARTS
FROM THE NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION'S (NOAA)
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER.
GROUND WATER - AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE. CURRENT GROUND WATER LEVELS
RANGE FROM AROUND AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID MARCH ACROSS THE
AREA.
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE. MOST WATER SUPPLY
RESERVOIRS AROUND THE REGION ARE HOLDING AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE
STORAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FLOOD CONTROL RESERVOIRS ARE
GENERALLY AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR MID MARCH.
FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH LIGHT RAIN FOR THE REGION POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. BY THURSDAY A STORM SYSTEM MAY TRACK NEAR THE REGION
BRINGING POSSIBLY A MODERATE RAINFALL TO THE REGION. FOR THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S AND THE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. THIS WILL BEGIN A
FAIRLY TYPICAL (GRADUAL) LATE WINTER SNOWPACK MELT DOWN. MOST LIKELY
THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE RUNOFF INTO NEXT WEEK. AT
PRESENT, THERE ARE NO STRONG INDICATIONS OF ANY UNSEASONABLY WARM
PERIODS WHICH WOULD HASTEN THE SNOW MELT PROCESSES. THE POSSIBILITY
OF A DEVELOPING RAIN EVENT LATER NEXT WEEK WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY.
ANOTHER TOOL USED TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER/SPRING FLOODING
IN THE MARFC AREA IS CALLED AHPS, ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICES. ONE COMPONENT OF AHPS IS THE GENERATION OF PROBABILISTIC
RIVER FORECASTS BASED ON CURRENT BASIN CONDITIONS (RIVER LEVELS, SOIL
MOISTURE, EXTENT AND CONDITION OF ANY SNOWPACK) ALONG WITH 50 YEARS
OF HISTORIC TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DATA.
THIS AHPS TECHNIQUE HAS BEEN APPLIED TO THE SUSQUEHANNA AND DELAWARE
RIVER SYSTEMS. 30-DAY PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS FOR THESE BASINS SHOW
THAT THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING DURING THE NEXT 30 DAYS IS
APPROXIMATELY TWICE AS LIKELY AS HAS BEEN HISTORICALLY OBSERVED IN
THE SUSQUEHANNA AND DELAWARE BASINS. THIS INCREASE IN FLOOD POTENTIAL
DURING THE NEXT 30 DAYS IS PRIMARILY AS RESULT OF THE HEAVY SNOWPACK.
SUMMARY - THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING DURING THE NEXT WEEK IS
AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF MARCH.
WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK - NO WATER SUPPLY SHORTAGES ARE ANTICIPATED
ANYWHERE WITHIN THE MARFC REGION DURING THE NEXT SIX MONTHS. THIS
ASSUMES THAT PRECIPITATION AVERAGED OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SIX
MONTHS WILL END UP REASONABLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED WINTER FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
THIS OFFICE IN ONE WEEK, ON FRIDAY, MARCH 21, 2003.
MUCH MORE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION FOR THE NATION AND OUR
REGION CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
PAGES ON THE INTERNET. A CLICK-ABLE NATIONAL MAP AT THE ADDRESS BELOW
CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE TO FURTHER DETAILED HYDROLOGIC AND
METEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION AND GRAPHICS.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
Great discussion and map of my general area and concerns for snowpack and flooding and water equivalents.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/bgm/news/current.htm
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/bgm/news/current.htm
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Rob-TheStormChaser
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1044 AM EST SUN MAR 16 2003
A FLOOD WATCH FOR POSSIBLE ICE JAM FLOODING IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW YORK.
THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
ERIE...NIAGARA...ORLEANS...GENESEE...MONROE...WAYNE...ONTARIO...
LIVINGSTON...WYOMING...CHAUTAUQUA...CATTARAUGUS AND ALLEGANY.
A LONG AWAITED MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE IS FINALLY BREAKING THE BACK OF
THIS VERY LONG WINTER...HOWEVER RUNOFF FROM THE MELTING SNOWPACK
MAY AGGRAVATE ICE BREAKUP IN AREA CREEKS AND EVENTUALLY RESULT IN
SOME ICE JAM FLOODING EARLY THIS WEEK.
TEMPERATURES PEAKED IN THE 50S IN MOST AREAS SATURDAY...RIPENING AND
BEGINNING TO MELT THE EXISTING SNOWPACK. DEW POINTS BELOW FREEZING
HOWEVER...HELPED KEEP THE MELT AND RUNOFF DOWN A BIT. ALSO HELPING
HOLD DOWN THE MELT AND RUNOFF WERE TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HOLD OFF THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMMING UNTIL
AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE REGION IS EXPERIENCING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH
MOST INTERIOR LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 60S THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THIS HEAT...THE MELTING PROCESS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
SPEED UP. DEW POINTS RISING ABOVE FREEZING WILL ALSO HELP SPEED UP
THE PROCESS AS CONDENSATIONAL ENERGY IS RELEASED. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY DROP INTO THE 40S TONIGHT THEN BACK INTO THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 ON MONDAY. MANY LOW ELEVATIONS SHOULD BE NEARLY BARE BY
MONDAY BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF WATER CONTENT IN THE SNOWPACK AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SO RAPID RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE NEAR HEADWATERS.
COLDER AIR IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP
ALLEVIATE ANY ICE JAM PROBLEMS THAT DO OCCUR.
ONE CONSOLATION IS THAT LITTLE OR NO RAIN IS EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY.
MANY SMALL TO MID SIZED CREEKS ARE STILL ICE CLOGGED AND AS RUNOFF
INCREASES...THERE WILL BE SOME ICE JAMS. MOST OF THESE WILL BE MINOR
BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF MAJOR ICE JAMS ON THE USUAL TROUBLE
SPOTS...SUCH AS CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO...CAYUGA...AND TONAWANDA CREEKS.
THESE COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE MORE LIKELY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
ICE JAM PROBLEMS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
CATTARAUGUS CREEK NEAR SUNSET BAY...WITH THESE MORE LIKELY TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
REMEMBER THOUGH...ICE JAMS CAN OCCUR ON ANY CREEKS IN WESTERN NEW
YORK...INCLUDING THOSE IN THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...GENESEE VALLEY
AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES REGION AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE
WITH INTERESTS CLOSE TO AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS SHOULD BE ON THE
ALERT AND BE READY TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A
WARNING IS ISSUED.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 4 PM.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1044 AM EST SUN MAR 16 2003
A FLOOD WATCH FOR POSSIBLE ICE JAM FLOODING IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW YORK.
THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
ERIE...NIAGARA...ORLEANS...GENESEE...MONROE...WAYNE...ONTARIO...
LIVINGSTON...WYOMING...CHAUTAUQUA...CATTARAUGUS AND ALLEGANY.
A LONG AWAITED MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE IS FINALLY BREAKING THE BACK OF
THIS VERY LONG WINTER...HOWEVER RUNOFF FROM THE MELTING SNOWPACK
MAY AGGRAVATE ICE BREAKUP IN AREA CREEKS AND EVENTUALLY RESULT IN
SOME ICE JAM FLOODING EARLY THIS WEEK.
TEMPERATURES PEAKED IN THE 50S IN MOST AREAS SATURDAY...RIPENING AND
BEGINNING TO MELT THE EXISTING SNOWPACK. DEW POINTS BELOW FREEZING
HOWEVER...HELPED KEEP THE MELT AND RUNOFF DOWN A BIT. ALSO HELPING
HOLD DOWN THE MELT AND RUNOFF WERE TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HOLD OFF THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMMING UNTIL
AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE REGION IS EXPERIENCING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH
MOST INTERIOR LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 60S THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THIS HEAT...THE MELTING PROCESS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
SPEED UP. DEW POINTS RISING ABOVE FREEZING WILL ALSO HELP SPEED UP
THE PROCESS AS CONDENSATIONAL ENERGY IS RELEASED. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY DROP INTO THE 40S TONIGHT THEN BACK INTO THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 ON MONDAY. MANY LOW ELEVATIONS SHOULD BE NEARLY BARE BY
MONDAY BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF WATER CONTENT IN THE SNOWPACK AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SO RAPID RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE NEAR HEADWATERS.
COLDER AIR IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP
ALLEVIATE ANY ICE JAM PROBLEMS THAT DO OCCUR.
ONE CONSOLATION IS THAT LITTLE OR NO RAIN IS EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY.
MANY SMALL TO MID SIZED CREEKS ARE STILL ICE CLOGGED AND AS RUNOFF
INCREASES...THERE WILL BE SOME ICE JAMS. MOST OF THESE WILL BE MINOR
BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF MAJOR ICE JAMS ON THE USUAL TROUBLE
SPOTS...SUCH AS CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO...CAYUGA...AND TONAWANDA CREEKS.
THESE COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE MORE LIKELY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
ICE JAM PROBLEMS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
CATTARAUGUS CREEK NEAR SUNSET BAY...WITH THESE MORE LIKELY TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
REMEMBER THOUGH...ICE JAMS CAN OCCUR ON ANY CREEKS IN WESTERN NEW
YORK...INCLUDING THOSE IN THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...GENESEE VALLEY
AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES REGION AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE
WITH INTERESTS CLOSE TO AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS SHOULD BE ON THE
ALERT AND BE READY TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A
WARNING IS ISSUED.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 4 PM.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
1159 AM EST SUN MAR 16 2003
...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR
SHIRLEYSBURG FOR MONDAY...
...MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST...
AT AUGHWICK CREEK... AT SHIRLEYSBURG THE 09AM SUNDAY STAGE WAS 6.6
FEET AND RISING. FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET. THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO
RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUE TO RISE
TO NEAR 10.6 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RISES ARE POSSIBLE
THEREAFTER. THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 10.6 FEET ON
OCT 24 1990. AT 10.0 FEET, THE AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG
EXCEEDS ITS BANK.
NEVER DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!! THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP
TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE. MOST DEATHS THAT OCCUR DURING FLOODING ARE
RELATED TO VEHICLES TRYING TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.
AN UPDATE TO THIS PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS EVENING.
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
1159 AM EST SUN MAR 16 2003
...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR
SHIRLEYSBURG FOR MONDAY...
...MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST...
AT AUGHWICK CREEK... AT SHIRLEYSBURG THE 09AM SUNDAY STAGE WAS 6.6
FEET AND RISING. FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET. THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO
RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUE TO RISE
TO NEAR 10.6 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RISES ARE POSSIBLE
THEREAFTER. THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 10.6 FEET ON
OCT 24 1990. AT 10.0 FEET, THE AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG
EXCEEDS ITS BANK.
NEVER DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!! THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP
TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE. MOST DEATHS THAT OCCUR DURING FLOODING ARE
RELATED TO VEHICLES TRYING TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.
AN UPDATE TO THIS PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS EVENING.
0 likes
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Rob-TheStormChaser
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Rob-TheStormChaser
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
345 PM EST SUN MAR 16 2003
...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH...EFFECTIVE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
IN CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS WATCH INCLUDES...
BROOME CAYUGA CHEMUNG CHENANGO
CORTLAND DELAWARE MADISON ONEIDA
ONONDAGA OTSEGO SCHUYLER SENECA
STEUBEN SULLIVAN TIOGA TOMPKINS
YATES
IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES...
BRADFORD LACKAWANNA LUZERNE PIKE
SUSQUEHANNA WAYNE WYOMING
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. WARM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS EXTENDED WARM PERIOD HAS CAUSED THE SNOW TO START
TO MELT. IF ENOUGH SNOW MELTS RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL RUN OVER THEIR
BANKS. ON TUESDAY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE THE SNOW MELT TO
SLOW.
MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO MEAN A GREATER CHANCE FOR ICE MOVEMENT
AND POSSIBLY JAMMING. MOST OF THE LARGER RIVER REACHES ARE ICE
FREE. DUE TO THE COMPLEXITIES OF RIVER AND STREAM ICE FORMATION AND
BREAKUP IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO PREDICT THE SPECIFICS CONCERNING ICE
JAM OCCURRENCE, LOCATION OR SEVERITY.
MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FLOOD MONDAY OR TUESDAY. FOR
THE NORTH BRANCH OF THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER IN PENNSYLVANIA OR THE
DELAWARE RIVER BELOW HANCOCK TO FLOOD RAIN WOULD BE NEEDED IN
ADDITION TO THE SNOW MELT RUNOFF.
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
345 PM EST SUN MAR 16 2003
...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH...EFFECTIVE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
IN CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS WATCH INCLUDES...
BROOME CAYUGA CHEMUNG CHENANGO
CORTLAND DELAWARE MADISON ONEIDA
ONONDAGA OTSEGO SCHUYLER SENECA
STEUBEN SULLIVAN TIOGA TOMPKINS
YATES
IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES...
BRADFORD LACKAWANNA LUZERNE PIKE
SUSQUEHANNA WAYNE WYOMING
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. WARM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS EXTENDED WARM PERIOD HAS CAUSED THE SNOW TO START
TO MELT. IF ENOUGH SNOW MELTS RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL RUN OVER THEIR
BANKS. ON TUESDAY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE THE SNOW MELT TO
SLOW.
MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO MEAN A GREATER CHANCE FOR ICE MOVEMENT
AND POSSIBLY JAMMING. MOST OF THE LARGER RIVER REACHES ARE ICE
FREE. DUE TO THE COMPLEXITIES OF RIVER AND STREAM ICE FORMATION AND
BREAKUP IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO PREDICT THE SPECIFICS CONCERNING ICE
JAM OCCURRENCE, LOCATION OR SEVERITY.
MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FLOOD MONDAY OR TUESDAY. FOR
THE NORTH BRANCH OF THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER IN PENNSYLVANIA OR THE
DELAWARE RIVER BELOW HANCOCK TO FLOOD RAIN WOULD BE NEEDED IN
ADDITION TO THE SNOW MELT RUNOFF.
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Stormsfury
- Category 5
- Posts: 10549
- Age: 53
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
- Location: Summerville, SC
The ETA/GFS both indicate to some degree colder temperatures with the ETA and its higher resolution shows AG signature much better than the GFS (due to yet, another CAD wedge scenario and may help slow the ice jam scenario down some) ...
The DAY 3 ECMWF surface map indicates a strong wedge scenario down into the Carolinas with a 1035 mb high situated over Eastern Canada.
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest
IMO, this is a good news/bad news situation. Good news, is the slowing of the ice/snow melt, but the bad news being heavier rainfalls with warmer temperatures as the storm system pulls in that direction Thursday/Friday.
Keep us informed and stay safe.
The DAY 3 ECMWF surface map indicates a strong wedge scenario down into the Carolinas with a 1035 mb high situated over Eastern Canada.
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest
IMO, this is a good news/bad news situation. Good news, is the slowing of the ice/snow melt, but the bad news being heavier rainfalls with warmer temperatures as the storm system pulls in that direction Thursday/Friday.
Keep us informed and stay safe.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
345 AM EST MON MAR 17 2003
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY...
MILD TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. ALTHOUGH
FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO SNOWMELT ALONE, ICE JAMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY ON SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE AREA FOR HEADWATER POINTS IN THE DELAWARE AND
SUSQUEHANNA BASINS WHICH WILL RISE TO NEAR BANKFULL, AND FOR ICE
JAMS. SEE THE FLOOD WATCH STATEMENT (ALBFFABGM) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
RAIN MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
345 AM EST MON MAR 17 2003
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY...
MILD TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. ALTHOUGH
FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO SNOWMELT ALONE, ICE JAMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY ON SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE AREA FOR HEADWATER POINTS IN THE DELAWARE AND
SUSQUEHANNA BASINS WHICH WILL RISE TO NEAR BANKFULL, AND FOR ICE
JAMS. SEE THE FLOOD WATCH STATEMENT (ALBFFABGM) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
RAIN MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING.
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Rainband
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Rob-TheStormChaser
I'll keep you posted John. From where I sit, the heaviest snows are melting on the hilltops like where I'm at. There's also alot of snow upstream but the temps are keeping the flooding to a minimum. If the rains come too hard later this week this could really pose bigger problems. I'm watching downsteam and also local and regional rivers to see how they're rising.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
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