severe wx this weekend

[WXBUFFJIM]

Severe weather threat today appears quite significant, especially with very large hail. Looking at surrounding sky conditons reveals lots of breaks in the clouds both in the warm and cold sector of this boundary across the midwestern united States including states such as Iowa, northern Illinois, northern Missouri and into eastern Nebraska and southern Minnesota and Wisconsin as well. Later today, storms should explode into supercells with very large hail and isolated tornadoes from Omaha to Minnepolis eastward through the Des Moines and Quad Cities area. This area of storms is expected to remain severe overnight across northern Illinois, northern Indiana, north central Ohio and southern Lower Michigan with damaging wind and large hail the main threat as this batch of activity evolves into a severe linear mesoscale convective system overnight.

By tomorrow an upper disturbance will move into the northern Plains and midwest renewing severe thunderstorms, but in a more northeast to southwest oriented line. The main threats will be large hail and high wind tomorrow across the northern Plains and the midwestern US.

Meanwhile the MCS, which is expected to develop today in the midwest will plow through the Mid Atlantic later tomorrow morning into early afternoon. The area of concern tomorrow across the Mid Atlantic includes northern Maryland, southern Pennsylvania, south central New Jersey, and most of Delaware. This linear MCS should move east southeast at 50-60 mph. This alone will enhance the threat for damaging wind gusts, especially in bow echo segments.

By Wednesday another much deeper trough is progged to dig deep into the southern Plains into northern Mexico. Along and ahead of this trough, rich deep gulf moisture will advect northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Strong upper air disturbance will move east into the central Plains by Wednesday and Wednesday night. At this time given the above ingredients, we could potentially see a dangerous and potentially deadly tornado outbreak in tornado alley Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. This tornado/severe tstm threat with widespread severe could track into the midwest and Ohio Valley on Thursday with widespread damaging wind and possibly tornadoes too. Still 5 days to go before this happens. But an outbreak in this area is quite probable as the pattern shifts from a June pattern to a more typical May pattern where tornado alley is activating.

Jim


Jim

[Stephanie]

Sounds like a lovely Mother's Day for my area tomorrow!

I'm glad I'm not planning a BBQ for my mother and Marty's mom.

[WXBUFFJIM]

Sounds like a lovely Mother's Day for my area tomorrow!

I'm glad I'm not planning a BBQ for my mother and Marty's mom.

Hopefully you have a good and safe one tomorrow!!!!

Jim