What's up with THIS warm water

[hurricanetrack]

Check out the OTIS tonight-

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTI ... nomaly.gif

Look at that really warm water off of California and the Baja. Anyone got a good explanation for that? Hope it is not a harbinger of a monster El Nino brewing.

And then, just south along the equator is the coldest water around- relative to normal. Wow. What's the deal?

[OtherHD]

I remember a small, circular pool of very warm water came up last year about in the same place where all the cool water is now. I proposed that it was just people peeing in the water, and within a week, the warm pool completely disappeared. I wonder if that's the case this time...

[Rainband]

Lyle!!! Go Study!!

[hurricanetrack]

Did you guys see that HORRIBLE movie on NBC called 10.5? The warm water off the Baja is the gargantuan amounts of bull poo-poo that was dumped into the ocean from the producers of that spectacle of obsurdity.

Please, please, please and I'll say it again, PLEASE let "The Day After Tomorrow" be 10.5% better than that NBC crapathon.

[cycloneye]

Mark that warm area off California will not be a factor to say el nino is comming because were you have to watch is in the equatorial pacific.If that blue cool area of anomalys goes away and yellows and reds appear there at el nino 1-2 west of South America and in the other areas el nino 3 and 4 then we can talk about el nino.

[AussieMark]

If El Nino was coing to play a major Part in Hurricane Season it should of being in place by now.

[AussieMark]

Does this look anything like a El Nino to u????

[wxman57]

I believe that you may be observing the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO):

http://www.disasterrelief.org/Disasters/000124ocean/

http://tao.atmos.washington.edu/pdo/

The Pacific has been in the cool, negative phase for quite a while, but it appears to be switching back toa warm phase. The warm phase of the PDO is conducive to more frequent La Ninas. It also may signal a pattern change in the tropical cyclone tracks in the central and western Atlantic, meaning less storms turning north and out to sea and more storms threatening the Caribbean and U.S.

[AussieMark]

I just thought that deep dark blue color near South America signalled a La Nina on its way.

[AussieMark]

wxman57 do u mean eventually the United States uncanny luck of avoiding all these catastrphes will come crash down.

[Hurricanehink]

Wow, look at the warm waters off the east coast. Well, I should call it warmer than normal. Still, el nino, la nina, I hope mother nature makes up her mind soon.

[Anonymous]

I believe it takes a while for the effect of an el nino or la nina to have an impact on the tropical season in the Atlantic-like several months. So the neutral (slight la nina-ish) conditions seen now in ssts in the pacific are setting the stage for this years hurricane season. If an el nino or la nina developed in July or August, it would be too late to have a major affect on the season. Am i correct on this?

[Guest]

There is some evidence based on what I've read that an El Nino will try to develop before the end of the hurricane season,even though that seems hard to believe at this point by looking at those cool anomalies in the equatorial EPAC.

Even if an El Nino were to develop in the next few months,it would have little to no effect on the '04 season.Unless some rapid unprecedented warming of the SSTs takes place & thats not likely to occur..Unless the whole country of Mexico & the whole continent of South America combine to take one gigantic whiz in the Pacific, in what I call the CPIEPW {Colossal Peeing In Equatorial Pacific Waters}or as some would call it an "Overnight El Nino",kind of like the phenomenom that OtherHD alluded to only on a massive scale.

This should not take place though for one the Peruvians hate El Nino events because it causes climate change & causes disastrous weather conditions which ruin crops,kills people & is'nt good for their economy.

The Mexicans & Central Americans for that matter is a different story due to the fact that warmer SSTs means great surf to swim in & more tourist $$$.

However in order to achieve a full fledged Overnight El Nino by way of CPIEPW {Colossal Peeing In Equatorial Pacific Waters}you need South America to take part.

So good news folks no natural or man made El Nino this year.