Florida in the bullseye.............

[Dean4Storms]

A good example is Puerto Rico where from 1956 when Betsy made landfall on august 12th to september 18th 1989 when Hugo made landfall it was a long time a hurricane didn't strike PR but that timeframe went short as from 1989 to 1998 Georges made landfall so In other words a place in the tropics is vulnerable every year and it all depends on the different patterns to send the storms tracking towards the islands or any place in the atlantic basin or not.

All derecho is saying, is that just because an area is due it doesn't mean that there is a higher probability of a landfall.

And NOwhere did anyone, including myself say that any given location has a higher probability this year. The term "overdue" is simply a word to express the FACT that during this upswing in tropical activity, time is not on the side of Florida where I indicated. If one merely looks at the statistics regarding past landfalls and the recent lack thereof you see a chilling statistic, it is OVERDUE! Could be this year, might be next year or maybe 5 years down the road, but it is still overdue all the same.

[Anonymous]

I edited my response....I was attempting to clear things up. Obviously I failed.

[HurricaneGirl]

We are lucky that Jacksonville sits in that little dip so even if one goes by like Floyd did in 1999, it's not really going to be too bad as long as it stays out to sea. It was reported that Category 1 effects were felt at Jacksonville Beach and it tore up the pier too. The new pier was just reopened last year.

But if one comes right for us, we're in Big Trouble.

[tallbunch]

Why do people say we are "overdue"...........

I live in a place where there hasn't been a big hurricane in a 100 years. We always seem to miss it. No locals leave when there is a threat.

[Rainband]

Why do people say we are "overdue"...........

I live in a place where there hasn't been a big hurricane in a 100 years. We always seem to miss it. No locals leave when there is a threat.

Complacency is dangerous. Better to leave and find out later we didn't have to, then to stay when we should have left!!

[Dean4Storms]

We are lucky that Jacksonville sits in that little dip so even if one goes by like Floyd did in 1999, it's not really going to be too bad as long as it stays out to sea. It was reported that Category 1 effects were felt at Jacksonville Beach and it tore up the pier too. The new pier was just reopened last year.

But if one comes right for us, we're in Big Trouble.

Hey HGirl,

J'ville is my old stomping ground, lived in Arlington. Besides Dora in 64, J'ville has always dodged the bullets outside of an occasional TStorm. Most of the misses are largely due to the curvature westward of the NE FL and Ga. coasts which have allowed the storms to move northward safe enough to the east. But like Dora, it's not out of the realm of a future possibilty that one will eventually get caught up in a steering current turning it to the west and into you guys. Being that it's been 40 yrs, you can see my point that an event as such occuring again is overdue to a certain extent.

[AussieMark]

Florida is indeed a Sitting duck.

Particularly the Florida Peninsula.

Some sections of it are long overdue for a Major Hurricane Strike.

most noteworthy are

Tampa Bay
SE Peninsula

The Florida Peninsula has been Major Hurricane Proof in the most part since the 1960's. APrt from Andrew

That is 1 Major Hurricane has struck the Florida Peninsula in 39 years.

This August it would of been 12 years since ANdrew.

You have to ask yourself in those 12 years has the average comunity become Complacent when u consider most threats since then have either weakened rapidly, gone out to sea or struck the Carolinas.

[stormchazer]

Here is hoping Tampa keeps ducking the storms. She is ill-prepared for a major hurricane. (I know, so are lots of others.)

[Dean4Storms]

It sure is a disaster in the making. They make such a big deal over Cal -e-forn-ea's large earthquake potential (not to be-little it). But I think the disaster potential for Florida with a Cat. 5 hitting a major metro. area is just as much a threat if not more so, especially during this upswing in tropical activity. Had Andrew gone in just 50 miles further north the loss of life would have probably been in the thousands with hundreds of thousands homeless. All we can do is hope and pray that Florida dodges the bullet again as we also don't need anything like this as far as the economy goes right now as well.

[Stormsfury]

Why do people say we are "overdue"...........

I live in a place where there hasn't been a big hurricane in a 100 years. We always seem to miss it. No locals leave when there is a threat.

Hurricane Gracie in 1959 didn't "exactly" miss Hilton Head Island, although landfall was Beaufort, SC ... The island there suffered through winds in excess of 100 mph... There was quite a bit of damage further north in the Charleston area as well ...

SF

[Stormsfury]

Well ... to clarify what BOTH are stating ...

Derecho simply states that the odds are the same every year ...

Dean4Storms simply states that the odds are not on Florida's side (to average or balance things out ... a storm will be a-calling ...)

Both are correct ...

SF

[george_r_1961]

I dont know anything about probabilties but the EC has taken more than its fair share the past several years. Bertha in 1996,,,Bonnie in 1998..Dennis and Floyd in 1999...and of course Isabel last year. With a weak or non existant El Nino this year...it could be another interesting season.

[HurricaneBill]

On one site, I read that you should never let your guard down after you get struck by a so-called "once-a-century" storm or something like that.

Just because a hurricane like that tends to strike only once a century, that doesn't mean another hurricane of the same intensity won't come barreling in a few weeks later in the same spot.

[HurricaneGirl]

Hey Dean!! Glad to see you found your way here. Yes, what you said about the curvature of the coastline (the dip) is what makes it somewhat safer here. Yes I have studied Hurricane Dora and asked many people who lived here and remembered that hurricane coming through. She came through the year I was born, but I lived in Michigan when I was little.

Anything or anywhere is possible even here. I just might get to see one this year, who knows.... It just depends on the steering currents. I remember Dr. Steve Lyons pointing right at Jacksonville one day saying Hurricane Floyd might make landfall here and I was like Holy Crap, I'm getting out of here.......

[Stormsfury]

On one site, I read that you should never let your guard down after you get struck by a so-called "once-a-century" storm or something like that.

Just because a hurricane like that tends to strike only once a century, that doesn't mean another hurricane of the same intensity won't come barreling in a few weeks later in the same spot.

That's a very true statement in regards to overall longwave patterns ... especially in cases where a lot of blocking occurs or a general longwave pattern dominates that season ...

Prime examples could easily be Bertha and Fran in 1996 (NC)... Allison, Chantal, and Jerry in 1989 (SE TX) ... Florida in MANY YEARS ... GA/SC in 1893 with the Sea Islands Hurricane and another major hurricane just 5-6 weeks beforehand ...

Just take a look back at historical tracking maps, and you generally can get an idea what and where the "Bermuda High" sets up with ATL storms in a good many years and where the corridor or recurvature occurs ...

SF

[Dean4Storms]

Well ... to clarify what BOTH are stating ...

Derecho simply states that the odds are the same every year ...

Dean4Storms simply states that the odds are not on Florida's side (to average or balance things out ... a storm will be a-calling ...)

Both are correct ...

SF

Thanks SF, I have alot of concerns for this year, can't necessarily say they are all scientific though. I guess some of it is the realization that it's been 12 yrs since a Cat. 4 or greater has visited Florida and the latter part of those 12 yrs during a real upswing in tropical activity. It is imposssible for anyone to say with any certainty what is in store for Florida this year, time will tell.

[AussieMark]

Has a Major Hurricane made landfall anywhere near Jacksonville. If not that is another area that may not be prepared due to complacency issues.

[Dean4Storms]

I'm not aware of any Major Hurricanes making a direct landfall over the Jax. area and if one ever does the flooding will be catastrophic. The St. Johns River snakes through Jax. and even downtown. If you look at a map the Arlington area sits between the Intercoastal Waterway and the St. Johns which is very tidal. If a Major Hurricane was to ever come inland just south of the mouth of the St. Johns River at High Tide the Arlington area could very well go under 20+ ft. of water. We use to get extensive street flooding whenever there was a high tide and we got a heavy TStorm as the attributaries backed up. I couldn't imagine a Cat. 4 or 5!

[Derek Ortt]

Dora in 1964 was a cat 3 at Jacksonville landfall

[Dean4Storms]

Actually Dora moved inland near St. Augustine, approx. 30 miles south of Jax. Highest winds recorded on land were gusts to near 110mph. The Jax. NWS only recorded minimal hurricane force winds.

Even with Dora, Jax. was alot less populated back then and yet the flooding was extensive causing 230 mil. in damages. You now have Sawgrass and all the large estates built down around S. Ponte Vedra Bch. ( between Jax. Bch. and St. Aug.)along with the new developments on the North side of the St. Johns jetties in Fernadina Bch.

But you are correct Derek, they categorized her as a Cat. 3 at landfall and it could be that there was no anemometers close enough to the eyewall to get those speeds.