Tropical Cyclone 01A

[Typhoon_Willie]

First tropical cyclone for the Arabian sea forms!


WTIO31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC/
SUBJ//TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041251ZMAY04//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z5 --- NEAR 11.5N7 73.4E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5N7 73.4E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 11.6N8 73.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 12.1N4 74.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 12.6N9 73.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 13.2N6 73.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 14.1N6 73.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050300Z8 POSITION NEAR 11.5N7 73.5E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCHIN, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 042330Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION HAS SLOWLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST
TWELVE HOURS OVER A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
TC 01A IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
GFDN, NCEP GFS, AND EGRR ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS
OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
050000Z5 IS 10 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 041251Z3 MAY 04 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTIO21 PGTW 041300) NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z4, 051500Z1, 052100Z8
AND 060300Z9.//
NNNN

[rainstorm]

thanks willie

[Hurricanehink]

Wow, a break in the lull of the tropics. I wonder where it will hit?

[Wnghs2007]

Cool...that was a long time between storms

[Typhoon_Willie]

Yep it sure was a long time between storms!