MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0257
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 PM CST SUN MAR 16 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 161859Z - 162100Z
WE ARE MONITORING THIS AREA FOR POSSIBLE SVR TSTM WATCH.
AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN
NC WHERE DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN OCCURRING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S IN SOME LOCATIONS
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. THIS HAS LEAD TO SBCAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 1500 AND 1700 J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR
7.0C/KM. THIS IS DUE TO MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED NOW OVER N
CENTRAL NC WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND -16C.
RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS ADJUSTED FOR OBSERVED T/TD SHOWS POTENTIAL
FOR LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS AROUND 30K WITH WET
BULB ZERO LEVELS NEAR 8000K. COUPLE MORE HOURS OF HEATING POSES
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
***CURRENT WATCHES/WARNINGS/STORMS/REPORTS IN THE US***
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
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Rob-TheStormChaser
Hail Reports
Time Size Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1845 100 BROWARD COUNTY BROWARD FL 2613 8050 (MIA)
1850 75 CORAL SPRINGS BROWARD FL 2626 8021 (MIA)
1945 75 FREMONT WAYNE NC 3555 7798 (RAH)
2002 75 PINK HILL LENOIR NC 3504 7774 DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED NEAR PINK HILL (MHX)
2042 100 WALSTONBURG GREENE NC 3560 7769 HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL REPORTED BETWEEN WALSTONBURG AND LINDELL (MHX)
Time Size Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1845 100 BROWARD COUNTY BROWARD FL 2613 8050 (MIA)
1850 75 CORAL SPRINGS BROWARD FL 2626 8021 (MIA)
1945 75 FREMONT WAYNE NC 3555 7798 (RAH)
2002 75 PINK HILL LENOIR NC 3504 7774 DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED NEAR PINK HILL (MHX)
2042 100 WALSTONBURG GREENE NC 3560 7769 HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL REPORTED BETWEEN WALSTONBURG AND LINDELL (MHX)
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Rob-TheStormChaser
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
410 PM EST SUN MAR 16 2003
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT
HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
GREENE COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
PITT COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
* UNTIL 500 PM EST
* AT 410 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FARMVILLE TO SNOW HILL...OR FROM
10 MILES WEST OF GREENVILLE TO SNOW HILL...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.
LIKELY WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
HOOKERTON AROUND 415 PM EST
BRUCE AROUND 420 PM EST
RENSTON...AND ORMONDSVILLE AROUND 425 PM EST
GREENVILLE AROUND 430 PM EST
WINTERVILLE...AND AYDEN AROUND 435 PM EST
GRIFTON AROUND 440 PM EST
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
410 PM EST SUN MAR 16 2003
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT
HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
GREENE COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
PITT COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
* UNTIL 500 PM EST
* AT 410 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FARMVILLE TO SNOW HILL...OR FROM
10 MILES WEST OF GREENVILLE TO SNOW HILL...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.
LIKELY WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
HOOKERTON AROUND 415 PM EST
BRUCE AROUND 420 PM EST
RENSTON...AND ORMONDSVILLE AROUND 425 PM EST
GREENVILLE AROUND 430 PM EST
WINTERVILLE...AND AYDEN AROUND 435 PM EST
GRIFTON AROUND 440 PM EST
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Rob-TheStormChaser
Hail Reports
Time Size Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1845 100 BROWARD COUNTY BROWARD FL 2613 8050 (MIA)
1850 75 CORAL SPRINGS BROWARD FL 2626 8021 (MIA)
1945 75 FREMONT WAYNE NC 3555 7798 (RAH)
2002 75 PINK HILL LENOIR NC 3504 7774 DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED NEAR PINK HILL (MHX)
2030 75 RIVERVIEW HILLSBOROUGH FL 2791 8230 REPORTED BY OFF-DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE. (TBW)
2042 100 WALSTONBURG GREENE NC 3560 7769 HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL REPORTED BETWEEN WALSTONBURG AND LINDELL (MHX)
2058 150 FARMVILLE PITT NC 3560 7760 WITN REPORTED 11/2 INCH HAIL IN FARMVILLE AT 358 PM (MHX)
2113 100 BELLARTHUR PITT NC 3558 7751 1 INCH HAIL REPORTED IN BELL ARTHUR (MHX)
2115 100 WALSTONBURG GREENE NC 3560 7769 REPORTED BY GREENE COUNTY 911. 1 INCH HAIL COVERED THE GROUND UP TO 1 INCH DEEP NEAR COBB CORNER AND ROUTE 269 (MHX)
2224 100 KENANSVILLE OSCEOLA FL 2788 8098 FL HWY PATROL REPORTED QUARTER/WALNUT SIZE HAIL ALONG THE FL TRNPK (MLB)
2237 75 CYPRESS GARDENS POLK FL 2798 8169 REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER. (TBW)
Wind Reports
Time Speed Location County State Lat Lon Comments
2110 UNK STUART MARTIN FL 2720 8025 TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN. WINDOWS BROKEN BY WIND DRIVEN DEBRIS. RPTD BY NEWS MEDIA. (MLB)
2150 UNK PORT ST LUCIE ST LUCIE FL 2726 8031 TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN. A FEW BROKEN WINDOWS.REPORTED BY ST. LUCIE COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE. (MLB)
Time Size Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1845 100 BROWARD COUNTY BROWARD FL 2613 8050 (MIA)
1850 75 CORAL SPRINGS BROWARD FL 2626 8021 (MIA)
1945 75 FREMONT WAYNE NC 3555 7798 (RAH)
2002 75 PINK HILL LENOIR NC 3504 7774 DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED NEAR PINK HILL (MHX)
2030 75 RIVERVIEW HILLSBOROUGH FL 2791 8230 REPORTED BY OFF-DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE. (TBW)
2042 100 WALSTONBURG GREENE NC 3560 7769 HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL REPORTED BETWEEN WALSTONBURG AND LINDELL (MHX)
2058 150 FARMVILLE PITT NC 3560 7760 WITN REPORTED 11/2 INCH HAIL IN FARMVILLE AT 358 PM (MHX)
2113 100 BELLARTHUR PITT NC 3558 7751 1 INCH HAIL REPORTED IN BELL ARTHUR (MHX)
2115 100 WALSTONBURG GREENE NC 3560 7769 REPORTED BY GREENE COUNTY 911. 1 INCH HAIL COVERED THE GROUND UP TO 1 INCH DEEP NEAR COBB CORNER AND ROUTE 269 (MHX)
2224 100 KENANSVILLE OSCEOLA FL 2788 8098 FL HWY PATROL REPORTED QUARTER/WALNUT SIZE HAIL ALONG THE FL TRNPK (MLB)
2237 75 CYPRESS GARDENS POLK FL 2798 8169 REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER. (TBW)
Wind Reports
Time Speed Location County State Lat Lon Comments
2110 UNK STUART MARTIN FL 2720 8025 TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN. WINDOWS BROKEN BY WIND DRIVEN DEBRIS. RPTD BY NEWS MEDIA. (MLB)
2150 UNK PORT ST LUCIE ST LUCIE FL 2726 8031 TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN. A FEW BROKEN WINDOWS.REPORTED BY ST. LUCIE COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE. (MLB)
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Rob-TheStormChaser
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 171300Z - 181200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 N LFK 30 E TPL 35 NW TPL 50 W MWL 25 WSW LTS 40 WSW GAG
45 W GCK 25 WNW IML 35 W MHN 25 ENE VTN 40 SSW MHE 15 SSW SUX MKC
20 W HRO 30 SW HOT SHV 20 N LFK.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 W PNS 45 NE MOB 15 S TOI 10 NE ABY 25 W AYS 25 SSW SSI.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE CRP 40 SSW BWD
75 ESE LBB 15 E LBB 15 W LBB 45 NNW HOB 30 N GDP 50 SE ELP
...CONT... 10 SE DUG 40 NE YUM 40 E RAL 45 W SAC 55 E EKA 60 N LMT
25 SE RDM 70 NNW BNO 30 SW BKE 65 WNW BOI 50 WNW OWY 10 N EKO
25 SSE ENV SLC RWL 60 SSE GDV 40 SW P24 30 SW JMS 55 N ATY
40 ENE RWF MCW IRK ARG 30 SSW PBF 25 SSE LCH.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE MOB
30 ESE MEI 10 SSW TCL 30 S HSV CHA 10 SSW AVL CLT 25 ESE OAJ.
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE TO A CLOSED
LOW OVER NEW MEXICO TONIGHT...AS STRONG JET MAX MOVES EWD ALONG THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WAS LOCATED IN ERN CO AND SHOULD GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND DROP SWD IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER NM. A TRAILING DRYLINE
WILL ALSO SHIFT VERY SLOWLY EWD ACROSS WRN KS/WRN OK...BUT STRONGER
WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH THE SYSTEM MORE RAPIDLY EWD INTO CENTRAL
TX THIS AFTERNOON.
ALSO...A SURFACE/MID LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ALONG
THE EXTREME SERN MS COAST AND THE MID LEVEL WINDS SHOULD PUSH IT
SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS SERN AL TODAY AND INTO SWRN GA TONIGHT.
...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM NWRN TX NWD INTO SERN
NEBRASKA...MAINLY IN AREA OF INCREASED LIFT DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST.
MLCAPES ARE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND ISOLATED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KS/NEB WHERE LFC
LEVELS ARE LOWER THAN THOSE IN NWRN TX.
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WEAK IN TX/OK...BUT CLOUDS MAY PERSIST AND
REDUCE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...DIURNAL
HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OR AHEAD OF DRYLINE...PROGGED TO
EXTEND FROM NEAR DDC TO AUS. DESPITE RELATIVELY COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...DEEPER GULF MOISTURE IS NOT
FORECAST TO SHIFT NWD ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
MID 50 DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THE
WINDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...WITH SEVERE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...2C-4C WARMING BETWEEN
700-500 MB FROM SRN OK SWD INTO NRN TX ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITING
FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT HAIL. THUS...THE MODERATE RISK
AND HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR LARGE HAIL HAVE BEEN LOWERED THIS
OUTLOOK.
TSTMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL OK AND NRN TX SHOULD MOVE
NNEWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX...ERN OK/KS AND WRN AR
OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY A HAIL THREAT.
...FL AND EXTREME SRN AL/GA...
LINE OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED ABOUT 60 MI EAST OF EXTREME SERN MS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH INLAND INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY
WEAK...LINE OF STORMS MAY STRENGTHEN LATER THIS MORNING AS LINE
MOVES EWD ACROSS FL WHERE THE MLCAPES WILL INCREASE UP TO 2500 J/KG
...AS STRONGER INSTABILITY SPREADS INLAND FROM THE NERN GULF.
CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP CLOSE TO THE UPPER
LOW AS DIURNAL HEATING DESTABILIZES THE ENVIRONMENT BEHIND CURRENT
THUNDERSTORM LINE. ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT
BE THAT STRONG...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS. HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ARE MOST
LIKELY...THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN TIGHT
CIRCULATION EVIDENT WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 171300Z - 181200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 N LFK 30 E TPL 35 NW TPL 50 W MWL 25 WSW LTS 40 WSW GAG
45 W GCK 25 WNW IML 35 W MHN 25 ENE VTN 40 SSW MHE 15 SSW SUX MKC
20 W HRO 30 SW HOT SHV 20 N LFK.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 W PNS 45 NE MOB 15 S TOI 10 NE ABY 25 W AYS 25 SSW SSI.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE CRP 40 SSW BWD
75 ESE LBB 15 E LBB 15 W LBB 45 NNW HOB 30 N GDP 50 SE ELP
...CONT... 10 SE DUG 40 NE YUM 40 E RAL 45 W SAC 55 E EKA 60 N LMT
25 SE RDM 70 NNW BNO 30 SW BKE 65 WNW BOI 50 WNW OWY 10 N EKO
25 SSE ENV SLC RWL 60 SSE GDV 40 SW P24 30 SW JMS 55 N ATY
40 ENE RWF MCW IRK ARG 30 SSW PBF 25 SSE LCH.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE MOB
30 ESE MEI 10 SSW TCL 30 S HSV CHA 10 SSW AVL CLT 25 ESE OAJ.
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE TO A CLOSED
LOW OVER NEW MEXICO TONIGHT...AS STRONG JET MAX MOVES EWD ALONG THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WAS LOCATED IN ERN CO AND SHOULD GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND DROP SWD IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER NM. A TRAILING DRYLINE
WILL ALSO SHIFT VERY SLOWLY EWD ACROSS WRN KS/WRN OK...BUT STRONGER
WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH THE SYSTEM MORE RAPIDLY EWD INTO CENTRAL
TX THIS AFTERNOON.
ALSO...A SURFACE/MID LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ALONG
THE EXTREME SERN MS COAST AND THE MID LEVEL WINDS SHOULD PUSH IT
SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS SERN AL TODAY AND INTO SWRN GA TONIGHT.
...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM NWRN TX NWD INTO SERN
NEBRASKA...MAINLY IN AREA OF INCREASED LIFT DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST.
MLCAPES ARE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND ISOLATED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KS/NEB WHERE LFC
LEVELS ARE LOWER THAN THOSE IN NWRN TX.
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WEAK IN TX/OK...BUT CLOUDS MAY PERSIST AND
REDUCE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...DIURNAL
HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OR AHEAD OF DRYLINE...PROGGED TO
EXTEND FROM NEAR DDC TO AUS. DESPITE RELATIVELY COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...DEEPER GULF MOISTURE IS NOT
FORECAST TO SHIFT NWD ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
MID 50 DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THE
WINDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...WITH SEVERE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...2C-4C WARMING BETWEEN
700-500 MB FROM SRN OK SWD INTO NRN TX ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITING
FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT HAIL. THUS...THE MODERATE RISK
AND HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR LARGE HAIL HAVE BEEN LOWERED THIS
OUTLOOK.
TSTMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL OK AND NRN TX SHOULD MOVE
NNEWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX...ERN OK/KS AND WRN AR
OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY A HAIL THREAT.
...FL AND EXTREME SRN AL/GA...
LINE OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED ABOUT 60 MI EAST OF EXTREME SERN MS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH INLAND INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY
WEAK...LINE OF STORMS MAY STRENGTHEN LATER THIS MORNING AS LINE
MOVES EWD ACROSS FL WHERE THE MLCAPES WILL INCREASE UP TO 2500 J/KG
...AS STRONGER INSTABILITY SPREADS INLAND FROM THE NERN GULF.
CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP CLOSE TO THE UPPER
LOW AS DIURNAL HEATING DESTABILIZES THE ENVIRONMENT BEHIND CURRENT
THUNDERSTORM LINE. ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT
BE THAT STRONG...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS. HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ARE MOST
LIKELY...THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN TIGHT
CIRCULATION EVIDENT WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NERN TX..AR..NRN
LA..NRN/CENTRAL MS..WRN TN..NWRN AL...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 NNW HSV 30 WNW BHM MEI 40 ENE HEZ 15 WSW ESF 10 E LFK
45 WNW LFK 15 W TYR 15 SE PRX 30 ENE PGO 40 ESE HRO ARG 35 NE MKL
15 NNW HSV.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 E PSX 45 SW CLL 50 SSE DAL 40 W MLC 20 ESE PNC 35 SSW EMP
40 SW OJC 20 S BLV 15 W OWB 45 E BNA 35 WNW ATL 40 S MCN AYS
25 NNE GNV 45 SSE CTY.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE CRP
30 ENE SAT 40 E SEP 30 SE END 10 E P28 55 W GCK 40 SE AKO 10 S CDR
35 NW PHP 25 SE MBG 15 NE BKX 40 NNE MLI 40 WNW HTS 25 S GSO
45 S EWN.
APPEARS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER/MID MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS. LARGE UPPER LOW WILL
ONLY SLOWLY SHIFT NEWD FROM NM INTO OK...WITH VERY STRONG MID/UPPER
LEVEL JETS EXTENDING ALONG ITS SERN PERIPHERY. ETA/ETAKF/AVN ARE
ALL FORECASTING 120+ KT H25 /80-90 KT H5/ WINDS BY TUESDAY EVENING
OVER ERN TX...WHICH SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER E-CENTRAL TX
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NNEWD INTO NERN AR
OVERNIGHT...AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES NORTHEAST AND THEN
NWD FROM TX INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION...SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S SHOULD BE LIFTED AS FAR NWD AS SERN
AR/NRN MS/WRN TX/NRN AL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS SSELY LOW LEVEL
WINDS STRENGTHEN.
GIVEN TRACK OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND COLLOCATION ALONG AND
NORTH OF UPPER JET...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER ERN TX DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND LIFT RAPIDLY NEWD INTO
NRN/CENTRAL LA...AR...CENTRAL/NRN MS...WRN TN...WRN AL THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SUPERCELLS ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH AN ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT.
FARTHER SOUTH WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...SHEAR PROFILES ARE FORECAST
TO BECOME VERY STRONG AS 70+ KT H5 WINDS OVERSPREAD 64+F SURFACE
DEW POINTS. HOWEVER...THIS REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE SOME
SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF NNEWD LIFTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS...WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE/POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS. REGARDLESS...
VERY STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR AND INCREASING THETA-E AIR MASS
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATE A LIKELIHOOD FOR SUPERCELLS AND
POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION.
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NERN TX..AR..NRN
LA..NRN/CENTRAL MS..WRN TN..NWRN AL...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 NNW HSV 30 WNW BHM MEI 40 ENE HEZ 15 WSW ESF 10 E LFK
45 WNW LFK 15 W TYR 15 SE PRX 30 ENE PGO 40 ESE HRO ARG 35 NE MKL
15 NNW HSV.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 E PSX 45 SW CLL 50 SSE DAL 40 W MLC 20 ESE PNC 35 SSW EMP
40 SW OJC 20 S BLV 15 W OWB 45 E BNA 35 WNW ATL 40 S MCN AYS
25 NNE GNV 45 SSE CTY.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE CRP
30 ENE SAT 40 E SEP 30 SE END 10 E P28 55 W GCK 40 SE AKO 10 S CDR
35 NW PHP 25 SE MBG 15 NE BKX 40 NNE MLI 40 WNW HTS 25 S GSO
45 S EWN.
APPEARS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER/MID MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS. LARGE UPPER LOW WILL
ONLY SLOWLY SHIFT NEWD FROM NM INTO OK...WITH VERY STRONG MID/UPPER
LEVEL JETS EXTENDING ALONG ITS SERN PERIPHERY. ETA/ETAKF/AVN ARE
ALL FORECASTING 120+ KT H25 /80-90 KT H5/ WINDS BY TUESDAY EVENING
OVER ERN TX...WHICH SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER E-CENTRAL TX
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NNEWD INTO NERN AR
OVERNIGHT...AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES NORTHEAST AND THEN
NWD FROM TX INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION...SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S SHOULD BE LIFTED AS FAR NWD AS SERN
AR/NRN MS/WRN TX/NRN AL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS SSELY LOW LEVEL
WINDS STRENGTHEN.
GIVEN TRACK OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND COLLOCATION ALONG AND
NORTH OF UPPER JET...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER ERN TX DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND LIFT RAPIDLY NEWD INTO
NRN/CENTRAL LA...AR...CENTRAL/NRN MS...WRN TN...WRN AL THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SUPERCELLS ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH AN ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT.
FARTHER SOUTH WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...SHEAR PROFILES ARE FORECAST
TO BECOME VERY STRONG AS 70+ KT H5 WINDS OVERSPREAD 64+F SURFACE
DEW POINTS. HOWEVER...THIS REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE SOME
SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF NNEWD LIFTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS...WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE/POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS. REGARDLESS...
VERY STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR AND INCREASING THETA-E AIR MASS
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATE A LIKELIHOOD FOR SUPERCELLS AND
POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS.
VALID 191200-201200
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST OVER THE LOWER
OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
ETA AND AVN ARE IN AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING A STRONG/VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER OK/SRN KS DURING THE PERIOD...
WITH A PAIR OF STRONG VORT MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THIS BROADER
CIRCULATION. LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NWWD THEN WWD OUT
OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE NEXT
SYSTEM BEGINS ROTATING NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY LATE
IN THE PERIOD.
...LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY/TN VALLEY/SOUTHEAST...
THOUGH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL OVERRIDE A
BROAD AND MOISTENING WARM SECTOR...MID/UPPER LEVEL SWLY WINDS WILL
BE QUITE STRONG /H5 WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KT/ FROM THE OH RIVER
VALLEY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION A LARGE AREA OF 1000-2000
J/KG MLCAPES CAN BE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
OTHER SUBTLE SURFACE FEATURES SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION DURING THE
PERIOD...WHICH WILL LIKELY BECOME ORGANIZED INTO LINES/SUPERCELLS
GIVEN STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS AL/GA AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS EJECTING
NEWD TOWARDS THIS REGION.
...CENTRAL IL/MO/NRN AR/NERN OK/SERN KS...
FARTHER NW...VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST NEAR
UPPER LOW AS H5 TEMPS REMAIN AOB -20C. THOUGH MOISTURE AND HEATING
AT THE SURFACE WILL BE MORE LIMITED OVER THIS AREA...MARGINAL TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SUPPORT
A LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS.
VALID 191200-201200
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST OVER THE LOWER
OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
ETA AND AVN ARE IN AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING A STRONG/VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER OK/SRN KS DURING THE PERIOD...
WITH A PAIR OF STRONG VORT MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THIS BROADER
CIRCULATION. LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NWWD THEN WWD OUT
OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE NEXT
SYSTEM BEGINS ROTATING NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY LATE
IN THE PERIOD.
...LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY/TN VALLEY/SOUTHEAST...
THOUGH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL OVERRIDE A
BROAD AND MOISTENING WARM SECTOR...MID/UPPER LEVEL SWLY WINDS WILL
BE QUITE STRONG /H5 WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KT/ FROM THE OH RIVER
VALLEY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION A LARGE AREA OF 1000-2000
J/KG MLCAPES CAN BE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
OTHER SUBTLE SURFACE FEATURES SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION DURING THE
PERIOD...WHICH WILL LIKELY BECOME ORGANIZED INTO LINES/SUPERCELLS
GIVEN STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS AL/GA AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS EJECTING
NEWD TOWARDS THIS REGION.
...CENTRAL IL/MO/NRN AR/NERN OK/SERN KS...
FARTHER NW...VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST NEAR
UPPER LOW AS H5 TEMPS REMAIN AOB -20C. THOUGH MOISTURE AND HEATING
AT THE SURFACE WILL BE MORE LIMITED OVER THIS AREA...MARGINAL TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SUPPORT
A LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
Hail Reports
Time Size Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1845 100 BROWARD COUNTY BROWARD FL 2613 8050 (MIA)
1850 75 CORAL SPRINGS BROWARD FL 2626 8021 (MIA)
1945 75 FREMONT WAYNE NC 3555 7798 (RAH)
2002 75 PINK HILL LENOIR NC 3504 7774 DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED NEAR PINK HILL (MHX)
2030 75 RIVERVIEW HILLSBOROUGH FL 2791 8230 REPORTED BY OFF-DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE. (TBW)
2042 100 WALSTONBURG GREENE NC 3560 7769 HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL REPORTED BETWEEN WALSTONBURG AND LINDELL (MHX)
2058 150 FARMVILLE PITT NC 3560 7760 WITN REPORTED 11/2 INCH HAIL IN FARMVILLE AT 358 PM (MHX)
2113 100 BELLARTHUR PITT NC 3558 7751 1 INCH HAIL REPORTED IN BELL ARTHUR (MHX)
2115 100 WALSTONBURG GREENE NC 3560 7769 REPORTED BY GREENE COUNTY 911. 1 INCH HAIL COVERED THE GROUND UP TO 1 INCH DEEP NEAR COBB CORNER AND ROUTE 269 (MHX)
2224 100 KENANSVILLE OSCEOLA FL 2788 8098 FL HWY PATROL REPORTED QUARTER/WALNUT SIZE HAIL ALONG THE FL TRNPK (MLB)
2237 75 CYPRESS GARDENS POLK FL 2798 8169 REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER. (TBW)
Wind Reports
Time Speed Location County State Lat Lon Comments
2110 UNK STUART MARTIN FL 2720 8025 TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN. WINDOWS BROKEN BY WIND DRIVEN DEBRIS. RPTD BY NEWS MEDIA. (MLB)
2150 UNK PORT ST LUCIE ST LUCIE FL 2726 8031 TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN. A FEW BROKEN WINDOWS.REPORTED BY ST. LUCIE COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE. (MLB)
0530 UNK RIVERVIEW HILLSBOROUGH FL 2791 8230 A 120 FOOT FENCE WAS BLOWN DOWN AT THE CORNER OF BALM-RIVERVIEW AND RHODINE. ALSO CAUSED MINOR HOUSE DAMAGE. REPORTED BY PUBLIC VIA ABC NEWS 28. (TBW)
0832 UNK MIRAMAR BROWARD FL 2613 8050 TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN. REPORT FROM BROWARD SHERIFF. (MFL)
0835 UNK PEMBROKE PINES BROWARD FL 2604 8016 TREES DOWNED. REPORT RECEIVED FROM BROWARD SHERIFF. (MFL)
Time Size Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1845 100 BROWARD COUNTY BROWARD FL 2613 8050 (MIA)
1850 75 CORAL SPRINGS BROWARD FL 2626 8021 (MIA)
1945 75 FREMONT WAYNE NC 3555 7798 (RAH)
2002 75 PINK HILL LENOIR NC 3504 7774 DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED NEAR PINK HILL (MHX)
2030 75 RIVERVIEW HILLSBOROUGH FL 2791 8230 REPORTED BY OFF-DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE. (TBW)
2042 100 WALSTONBURG GREENE NC 3560 7769 HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL REPORTED BETWEEN WALSTONBURG AND LINDELL (MHX)
2058 150 FARMVILLE PITT NC 3560 7760 WITN REPORTED 11/2 INCH HAIL IN FARMVILLE AT 358 PM (MHX)
2113 100 BELLARTHUR PITT NC 3558 7751 1 INCH HAIL REPORTED IN BELL ARTHUR (MHX)
2115 100 WALSTONBURG GREENE NC 3560 7769 REPORTED BY GREENE COUNTY 911. 1 INCH HAIL COVERED THE GROUND UP TO 1 INCH DEEP NEAR COBB CORNER AND ROUTE 269 (MHX)
2224 100 KENANSVILLE OSCEOLA FL 2788 8098 FL HWY PATROL REPORTED QUARTER/WALNUT SIZE HAIL ALONG THE FL TRNPK (MLB)
2237 75 CYPRESS GARDENS POLK FL 2798 8169 REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER. (TBW)
Wind Reports
Time Speed Location County State Lat Lon Comments
2110 UNK STUART MARTIN FL 2720 8025 TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN. WINDOWS BROKEN BY WIND DRIVEN DEBRIS. RPTD BY NEWS MEDIA. (MLB)
2150 UNK PORT ST LUCIE ST LUCIE FL 2726 8031 TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN. A FEW BROKEN WINDOWS.REPORTED BY ST. LUCIE COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE. (MLB)
0530 UNK RIVERVIEW HILLSBOROUGH FL 2791 8230 A 120 FOOT FENCE WAS BLOWN DOWN AT THE CORNER OF BALM-RIVERVIEW AND RHODINE. ALSO CAUSED MINOR HOUSE DAMAGE. REPORTED BY PUBLIC VIA ABC NEWS 28. (TBW)
0832 UNK MIRAMAR BROWARD FL 2613 8050 TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN. REPORT FROM BROWARD SHERIFF. (MFL)
0835 UNK PEMBROKE PINES BROWARD FL 2604 8016 TREES DOWNED. REPORT RECEIVED FROM BROWARD SHERIFF. (MFL)
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Rob-TheStormChaser
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 47
STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM CST MON MAR 17 2003
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1245 PM UNTIL 700
PM CST.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF OKLAHOMA CITY
OKLAHOMA TO 15 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF WACO TEXAS.
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...STRONG STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY ALONG SFC
DRYLINE OVER SWRN OK ATTM AND SHOULD DEVELOP SWD NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS
DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 60F AND SBCAPE IS 1500 TO NEAR 2000 J/KG. 18Z
OUN SOUNDING SHOWS AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE SUPPORTING DAMAGING WIND
THREAT AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7-8C/KM SUGGESTING THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 47
STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM CST MON MAR 17 2003
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1245 PM UNTIL 700
PM CST.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF OKLAHOMA CITY
OKLAHOMA TO 15 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF WACO TEXAS.
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...STRONG STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY ALONG SFC
DRYLINE OVER SWRN OK ATTM AND SHOULD DEVELOP SWD NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS
DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 60F AND SBCAPE IS 1500 TO NEAR 2000 J/KG. 18Z
OUN SOUNDING SHOWS AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE SUPPORTING DAMAGING WIND
THREAT AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7-8C/KM SUGGESTING THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 48
STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM CST MON MAR 17 2003
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL 700
PM CST.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 80 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF DODGE CITY
KANSAS TO 50 MILES SOUTH OF ENID OKLAHOMA.
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION... CONTINUE...WW 47...
DISCUSSION...STRONG STORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ALONG THE DRYLINE
ALONG THE TX PANAHNDLE/WRN OK BORDER. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH SBCAPES TO 1500 J/KG.
INSTABILITY ANALYSIS INDICATES CAP IS WEAKENING OVER KS WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION ALLOWING ACTIVITY OVER NWRN OK TO MOVE NEWD INTO
AREA.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23035.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 48
STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM CST MON MAR 17 2003
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL 700
PM CST.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 80 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF DODGE CITY
KANSAS TO 50 MILES SOUTH OF ENID OKLAHOMA.
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION... CONTINUE...WW 47...
DISCUSSION...STRONG STORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ALONG THE DRYLINE
ALONG THE TX PANAHNDLE/WRN OK BORDER. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH SBCAPES TO 1500 J/KG.
INSTABILITY ANALYSIS INDICATES CAP IS WEAKENING OVER KS WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION ALLOWING ACTIVITY OVER NWRN OK TO MOVE NEWD INTO
AREA.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23035.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0261
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 AM CST MON MAR 17 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL / ECNTRL WY
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 171738Z - 180015Z
MULTIPLE DAY HEAVY SNOWFALL EVENT TO BEGIN IN ERN/CNTRL WY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SNOWFALL RATES WILL INCREASE TO AT LEAST 1
IN/HR BY 17/21-18/00Z.
WV/IR IMAGERY SHOW MID LVL CYCLONE OVER CNTRL UT WITH DISCERNABLE
CYCLONIC FLOW WNWWD INTO DISCUSSION AREA. RECENT COOLING CLOUD
TOPS ON IR IMAGERY IN SERN WY INDICATIVE OF AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
AS A RESULT OF INCREASING LOW-LVL UPSLOPE FLOW / UPPER LVL
DIFLUENCE IN THE REGION. 17/12Z SOUNDING FROM NORTH PLATTE
REVEALS 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 C/KM WITH NEARLY 500 J/KG
OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHILE THE MRNG SOUNDING AT RIVERTON
REVEALS A SATURATED PROFILE WITH A SFC TEMPERATURE NEAR FREEZING.
THE CNTRL UT MID-LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE
DAY...AND THEN REDEVELOP COINCIDENT WITH THE STRENGTHENING SFC
LOW IN SERN CO. AS THIS OCCURS...BOTH UPPER LVL DIFLUENCE AND 850
MB UPSLOPE FLOW /25-35 KTS/ ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AIDING UVM
IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. ETA FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAVORED
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FOR HVY SNOW WILL BECOME MORE OPTIMAL
BETWEEN 18Z-21Z THIS AFTERNOON IN ECNTRL WY...INITIATING A RATHER
LONG-LIVED HVY SNOWFALL EVENT.
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 AM CST MON MAR 17 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL / ECNTRL WY
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 171738Z - 180015Z
MULTIPLE DAY HEAVY SNOWFALL EVENT TO BEGIN IN ERN/CNTRL WY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SNOWFALL RATES WILL INCREASE TO AT LEAST 1
IN/HR BY 17/21-18/00Z.
WV/IR IMAGERY SHOW MID LVL CYCLONE OVER CNTRL UT WITH DISCERNABLE
CYCLONIC FLOW WNWWD INTO DISCUSSION AREA. RECENT COOLING CLOUD
TOPS ON IR IMAGERY IN SERN WY INDICATIVE OF AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
AS A RESULT OF INCREASING LOW-LVL UPSLOPE FLOW / UPPER LVL
DIFLUENCE IN THE REGION. 17/12Z SOUNDING FROM NORTH PLATTE
REVEALS 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 C/KM WITH NEARLY 500 J/KG
OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHILE THE MRNG SOUNDING AT RIVERTON
REVEALS A SATURATED PROFILE WITH A SFC TEMPERATURE NEAR FREEZING.
THE CNTRL UT MID-LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE
DAY...AND THEN REDEVELOP COINCIDENT WITH THE STRENGTHENING SFC
LOW IN SERN CO. AS THIS OCCURS...BOTH UPPER LVL DIFLUENCE AND 850
MB UPSLOPE FLOW /25-35 KTS/ ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AIDING UVM
IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. ETA FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAVORED
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FOR HVY SNOW WILL BECOME MORE OPTIMAL
BETWEEN 18Z-21Z THIS AFTERNOON IN ECNTRL WY...INITIATING A RATHER
LONG-LIVED HVY SNOWFALL EVENT.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0264
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 PM CST MON MAR 17 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/S CNTRL KS...WRN/CNTRL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 48...
VALID 172047Z - 172245Z
STRONG MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
HAS SUPPORTED INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRY LINE
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. 20Z SURFACE DATA INDICATED DRY
LINE ALONG THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA/TEXAS BORDER...WEST OF GAGE INTO
THE CHILDRESS AREA...BEFORE CURVING INTO AREAS EAST OF ABILENE.
PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS ADVANCING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH
POST FRONTAL WINDS GUSTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 30 KT.
AS THIS FRONT MERGES WITH DRY LINE OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS/WESTERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
OF STORMS APPEARS LIKELY WEST/NORTHWEST OF OKLAHOMA CITY INTO
AREAS EAST OF DODGE CITY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE
INTO A SQUALL LINE... WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 PM CST MON MAR 17 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/S CNTRL KS...WRN/CNTRL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 48...
VALID 172047Z - 172245Z
STRONG MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
HAS SUPPORTED INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRY LINE
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. 20Z SURFACE DATA INDICATED DRY
LINE ALONG THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA/TEXAS BORDER...WEST OF GAGE INTO
THE CHILDRESS AREA...BEFORE CURVING INTO AREAS EAST OF ABILENE.
PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS ADVANCING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH
POST FRONTAL WINDS GUSTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 30 KT.
AS THIS FRONT MERGES WITH DRY LINE OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS/WESTERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
OF STORMS APPEARS LIKELY WEST/NORTHWEST OF OKLAHOMA CITY INTO
AREAS EAST OF DODGE CITY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE
INTO A SQUALL LINE... WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0265
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CST MON MAR 17 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 47...
VALID 172102Z - 172300Z
DRY LINE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED PAST FEW HOURS IN RESPONSE TO
SURFACE HEATING AND EVOLVING UPPER FLOW PATTERN. 20Z SURFACE
DATA INDICATED BOUNDARY CURVING JUST EAST OF CHILDRESS AND
ABILENE... CONTINUING SOUTHWARD INTO RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WHILE
STRONGER MID/ UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION HAS SPREAD
FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...DAYTIME
HEATING/ CONVERGENCE ALONG DRY LINE...AND WARM ADVECTION REGIME
IN MOIST ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF IT...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED INTENSE STORMS. CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG IS
SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...AND AS MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES
TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH EARLY EVENING...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTS... PERHAPS A TORNADO.
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CST MON MAR 17 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 47...
VALID 172102Z - 172300Z
DRY LINE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED PAST FEW HOURS IN RESPONSE TO
SURFACE HEATING AND EVOLVING UPPER FLOW PATTERN. 20Z SURFACE
DATA INDICATED BOUNDARY CURVING JUST EAST OF CHILDRESS AND
ABILENE... CONTINUING SOUTHWARD INTO RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WHILE
STRONGER MID/ UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION HAS SPREAD
FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...DAYTIME
HEATING/ CONVERGENCE ALONG DRY LINE...AND WARM ADVECTION REGIME
IN MOIST ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF IT...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED INTENSE STORMS. CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG IS
SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...AND AS MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES
TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH EARLY EVENING...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTS... PERHAPS A TORNADO.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
Tornado Reports
Time F-Scale Location County State Lat Lon Comments
2055 UNK 5 SW GOTEBO KIOWA OK 3500 9895 REPORTED BY SPOTTER (OKC)
Hail Reports
Time Size Location County State Lat Lon Comments
2000 175 8 S LONE WOLF KIOWA OK 3484 9925 REPORTED BY HAM RADIO OPERATOR (OKC)
2015 75 2 N DEMPSEY ROGER MILLS OK 3554 9981 HAIL COVERED THE GROUND. REPORTED BY PUBLIC (OKC)
2025 75 WANETTE POTTAWATOMIE OK 3495 9703 REPORTED BY WANETTE CITY HALL (OKC)
2035 75 HOBART KIOWA OK 3501 9910 REPORTED BY HAM SPOTTER (OKC)
2045 88 BURKBURNETT WICHITA TX 3409 9856 REPORTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF TOWN BY HAM RAIO OPERATOR. (OKC)
2050 175 HOBART KIOWA OK 3501 9910 REPORTED BY HAM RADIO OPERATOR (OKC)
Time F-Scale Location County State Lat Lon Comments
2055 UNK 5 SW GOTEBO KIOWA OK 3500 9895 REPORTED BY SPOTTER (OKC)
Hail Reports
Time Size Location County State Lat Lon Comments
2000 175 8 S LONE WOLF KIOWA OK 3484 9925 REPORTED BY HAM RADIO OPERATOR (OKC)
2015 75 2 N DEMPSEY ROGER MILLS OK 3554 9981 HAIL COVERED THE GROUND. REPORTED BY PUBLIC (OKC)
2025 75 WANETTE POTTAWATOMIE OK 3495 9703 REPORTED BY WANETTE CITY HALL (OKC)
2035 75 HOBART KIOWA OK 3501 9910 REPORTED BY HAM SPOTTER (OKC)
2045 88 BURKBURNETT WICHITA TX 3409 9856 REPORTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF TOWN BY HAM RAIO OPERATOR. (OKC)
2050 175 HOBART KIOWA OK 3501 9910 REPORTED BY HAM RADIO OPERATOR (OKC)
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