Florida in the bullseye.............

[Dean4Storms]

We all know it has been since 92 that Florida had to deal directly from a Major Hurricane landfall, this during a period of less tropical activity. Since the up-turn in tropical activity of the mid 90's the Florida Peninsula has escaped. Can this continue? I wouldn't bet on it that is for sure. The entire east coast of Florida and the west coast from Tampa southward is especially overdue. The last time a Hurricane made a direct hit on NE Florida was 1964. When you really stop to think about it you have to wonder just what is ahead. Nature has a way of balancing itself out and eerily sometimes. Could we see a major hit Florida this year? One would have to think so. Let's just hope it is only one Major Hurricane if nature begins her balancing act!

[Rainband]

Last time one hit here was 1946

[Wnghs2007]

Wow since 1946 that is a long time.....might have one come your way this year I fear. Hope not though.

[Rainband]

I want some action but nothing more than that!!

[Lindaloo]

HEY Dean!! Good to see you.

[Guest]

Ah but, you said the west coast of Florida from Tampa south? Thats actually not true. The area of coastline that is actually more favorable for landfall on teh gulf side is from Tampa north to Pensecola. Look at history, with a curving storm from either the Florida Straits or the Caribbean, they take aim at ares of the Florida Big Bend and the Panhandle. When was the last time that SW Florida saw a direct hit from the southwest or west?

[Stormsfury]

Remember, Pensacola didn't see a direct hit from a hurricane for 69 years, until 1995 when the city was struck by two ... Erin and Opal ...

Basically speaking, the West Coast of Florida (Peninsula) hasn't been struck by a hurricane since Hurricane Gladys in 1968 ...

[Stormsfury]

And the last time that SW Florida was struck by a hurricane directly from the Southwest or West was Hurricane Isbell in 1964 ...



Hurricane Alma in 1966 was a near miss ...

[FWBHurricane]

Dean...it has been since 1995 since Florida dealt with a major hurricane, dont forget Hurricane Opal that was a category three when it hit Navarre/Fort Walton Beach. That storm took a toll of $3 billion dollars, I lost my home in that storm. Cost us $170,000 dollars in house repairs. It was awful.

[HurricaneBill]

I know it made landfall in the extreme southern part of Florida, but technically, wasn't Hurricane Irene in 1999 on the western side of Florida? Even just a little?

Wasn't Hurricane Gordon another near-miss in 2000? It came onshore just below hurricane status.

[Hyperstorm]

HurricaneBill, that is right. It was a hurricane that struck SW Florida. Anyway, Florida's west coast has had a few near-misses of storms just below hurricane strength. The last one, I believe was TS Gabrielle in 2001 with winds of 70 mph at landfall (Although there was some debate regarding this and some believed it was a borderline hurricane there is no official report to document this). Florida as a whole has been lucky as of late.

[Rainband]

Florida as a whole has been lucky as of late.

I agree 100%. Will it last?? Time will tell

[Dean4Storms]

Maybe I need to clarify here, I was talking about the peninsula of Florida, not the Panhandle. I know Opal visitied us here but it is the east and west sides of the Peninsula that are long overdue. Like Stormsfury has pointed out, you have to go back to the 60's for much of the west coast south of Tampa and 92 for the Southeast coast. Andrew actually occured during a fairly long lull in tropical activity altogether. So one has to really wonder what is around the corner for the peninsula as we remain in this upsurge in favorable tropical activity. The luck so far has to run out sometime and it could do just that with a vengeance!

Hello Miss Lindaloo!!!!

[st pete walt]

She hit south of any population center on the west coast of Florida. Went to be that night and Tampa was in the path. Woke up the next morning and she hit the Everglades.
See attached
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1999irene.html

[Derecho]

The entire east coast of Florida and the west coast from Tampa southward is especially overdue.

As I've often pointed out, there's no such thing as "overdue" for hurricanes; they're not earthquakes where you get a long-term stress buildup. It's misleading to even use the term at all.

The atmosphere doesn't "remember" where it hasn't hit recently and then get around to "catching up" on landfalls in a particular area.

In a similar way, than if you flip a quarter and it comes up heads 4 times out of 5 flips, the chances it comes up tails on the next flip is still.....50%.

That said, obviously Florida is likely to get hit a lot more in the next 10 years than it has in the last 10, because if you look at the last 100 years the overall average level of hits is far higher than it has been the last 10 years.

But a given location on the coast doesn't have its chance of getting hit go up every year it DOESN'T get hit, which is what "overdue" suggests. If a given location on the coast gets hit on average once every 10 years for a 100 year period, then it goes 20 years without getting hit, then the chance of it getting hit each year after that is still likely 10%, it doesn't rise above 10% to "make up" for the 20 years with no hits.

[vbhoutex]

I was wondering Dean!!! I know where you live and you saw both Opal an dErin first hand!!!! Your post didn't indicate to me that you had lost your mind!!!!(but i was a little worried).

[cycloneye]

A good example is Puerto Rico where from 1956 when Betsy made landfall on august 12th to september 18th 1989 when Hugo made landfall it was a long time a hurricane didn't strike PR but that timeframe went short as from 1989 to 1998 Georges made landfall so In other words a place in the tropics is vulnerable every year and it all depends on the different patterns to send the storms tracking towards the islands or any place in the atlantic basin or not.

[Guest]

I think there is a overdue for hurricanes,I've heard some well known meteorologists among others use that phrase,if an area has been impacted a number of times before & it has'nt happened in a long time it will eventually happen again.

Florida does stick out like a "sore thumb" into hurricane alley & for the most part has been lucky over the last few decades,hurricanes are not suppose to be that much of a rare phenomenom down here & if some time has passed since the last event, then that area is overdue.

Hurricanes are supposed hit South Fla every 3 years on average,Irene hit 5 years ago,we're overdue.

Who says the term overdue applies only to earthquakes?

[ColdFront77]

Obviously Florida is likely to get hit a lot more in the next 10 years than it has in the last 10, because if you look at the last 100 years the overall average level of hits is far higher than it has been the last 10 years.

This is why the term "overdue" is used; most likely for the lack of another word.

[Anonymous]

I think there is a overdue for hurricanes,I've heard some well known meteorologists among others use that phrase,if an area has been impacted a number of times before & it has'nt happened in a long time it will eventually happen again.

Florida does stick out like a "sore thumb" into hurricane alley & for the most part has been lucky over the last few decades,hurricanes are not suppose to be that much of a rare phenomenom down here & if some time has passed since the last event, then that area is overdue.

Hurricanes are supposed hit South Fla every 3 years on average,Irene hit 5 years ago,we're overdue.

Who says the term overdue applies only to earthquakes?

All derecho is saying, is that just because an area is due it doesn't mean that there is a higher probability of a landfall.