Possibly interesting scenario setting up.....

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dixiebreeze
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Possibly interesting scenario setting up.....

#1 Postby dixiebreeze » Sat May 01, 2004 9:09 pm

in the GOM tonight. Might be worth watching the tail end of that huge storm front headed east
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#2 Postby Wnghs2007 » Sat May 01, 2004 9:15 pm

Well it depends on a few variables but...if it sit for a while and the shear is not that great then maybe...but I would have my doubts.
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convection in S Gulf

#3 Postby boca » Sun May 02, 2004 8:08 am

look at all the convection in the Gulf if this was June look out.
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#4 Postby Guest » Sun May 02, 2004 9:11 am

Shear in place across the GOM and W Atln.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
plus this a barclonic system, and the convection your seeing is related to a cold front. Even though it is possible for tropical development from an area such as this, other parameters need to fall in place.
This is the mess thats suppose to bring rain to Florida Sunday and Monday. Yippeee!!!
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#5 Postby Dean4Storms » Sun May 02, 2004 9:54 am

I agree Bob, on top of all you pointed out is the fact that SST's are still unfavorable in most of the GOM.
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#6 Postby Wnghs2007 » Sun May 02, 2004 9:58 am

I with both you Dean4storms, and bob on this one...and think the only place a storm might be able to form this year right now...is where Ana formed last year...but probally wont happen so we might be waiting for a while longer.
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chadtm80

#7 Postby chadtm80 » Sun May 02, 2004 10:01 am

http://sgiot2.wwb.noaa.gov/data_drive/p ... GM_sst.png

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#8 Postby ColdFront77 » Sun May 02, 2004 11:48 am

Yup, a portion of the Gulf of Mexico is around and at 80°F.

The upper level wind shear could be worse, consider and as "easy" as it's rising, it can fall.
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#9 Postby MortisFL » Sun May 02, 2004 1:47 pm

We need the rain here in FL.
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#10 Postby Rainband » Sun May 02, 2004 1:49 pm

Rain is on the way Mortis. :P
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#11 Postby Wnghs2007 » Sun May 02, 2004 1:59 pm

If this were june or july then I would think that we would have an interestingg situ setting up but this is may and the upper levels are unfavorable and for that matter so are the lower levels....Just wait for june or july though
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