Could get active around here this afternoon

[Colin]

SPC has my area in a slight risk, and the sun seems to be trying to break out right now...so as long as we get a few hours of sun, we could be in for a rather rocky afternoon...but main threat ATTM appears to be training and heavy rainfall, so will have to watch out for that. I'll keep all of you updated!

[stormraiser]

Same here Colin. Probably will hit more to my east, but still, keep your heads up

[Brett Adair]

Yeah guys....nice omega fields, moisture convergence and weak deep layer shear profiles sugges that you are going to have a rather nice heavy rain threat. Main threats will be from marginally severe hail and damaging winds in strongest storms that develop into bowing structures.

[tomboudreau]

Looks like I could be in line for the weather before its goes eastward. The sun has been out most of the morning and the temp has reflected this as we are now in the mid 70's. It feels very summery today with the humidity creeping upward and there is some haze in the sky as well. Time will tell what we get. I saw on the TV this morning that temps were already down to the 40s and 50s in eastern Ohio.

[stormraiser]

I am hoping this is the last "really" cold spell. It's May for goodness sake. It's not supposed to be this cold.

[Colin]

Well, it's been cloudy most of the morning...so I doubt any strong to severe storms, but some garden-variety thunderstorms are possible. Back west tomboudreau, you could get some nice storms. Here training and flooding is becoming an increasing concern.

[Stephanie]

The sun has been shining off and on this morning - I was wondering if that meant a potential of t'storms for me as well.

[Anonymous]

Noticed the spc just issued a MD for parts of PA for possibly a watch in the next hour-not sure if thats ur area or not... But conditions seem to be becoming ripe for storms all along the east coast with tstorm watch for ga/carolinas.

Code: Select all

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0557
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1221 PM CDT SUN MAY 02 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA/EXTREME ERN WV...WRN/NRN MD...CENTRAL/ERN PA
   AND CENTRAL/WRN NY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 021721Z - 021915Z
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
   NEXT 1-2 HOURS FROM THE WV PANHANDLE/EXTREME NWRN VA NWD INTO
   WCENTRAL NY. STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE THE MAIN
   SEVERE THREAT OVER SCENTRAL PA...WRN/NRN MD AND NRN VA...WITH
   ISOLATED TORNADOES AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT OVER
   NCENTRAL PA/CENTRAL NY. WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA
   WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
   
   LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED CLEARING OF LOW
   CLOUD FIELD OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NY SWD INTO NRN VA. BROKEN LINE OF
   SHOWERS HAS FORMED OVER WRN NY SWD INTO WV ALONG A SFC TROUGH AHEAD
   OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER ERN WV AHEAD OF A
   SUBTLE MCV. WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED OUT EARLIEST TODAY
   TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. A
   NARROW AXIS OF MID 60S DEWPOINTS AND MUCAPES BETWEEN 1500-2000
   J/KG...EXTENDS OVER THIS AREA FROM EXTREME NRN VA INTO SCENTRAL NY.
   RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISE
   FALL COUPLET WAS OVER SWRN PA AND THIS SHOULD MOVE NEWD INTO
   SCENTRAL NY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THE VICINITY
   OF A SFC LOW OVER SWRN NY WILL FAVOR INCREASED LOW LEVEL
   SHEAR....WITH 0-1 KM SRH AROUND ALREADY BETWEEN 100-200 M2/S2 OVER
   SCENTRAL NY AND EXTREME NCENTRAL PA SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
   ISOLATED TORNADOES. LOW CLOUD COVER OVER ERN NY/ERN PA WILL NEED TO
   CONTINUE TO ERODE FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT TO BE REALIZED IN THESE
   AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...STRONGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
   SHEAR PROFILES AND WEAK LAPSE RATES SUPPORTS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS
   THE PRIMARY THREAT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 05/02/2004


[Stephanie]

Severe Weather Alert from the National Weather Service

...ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ- CAPE MAY NJ-CARBON PA-CAROLINE MD-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA- COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA- DELAWARE BEACHES DE-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ- INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT MD-KENT DE-LEHIGH PA-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ- MONROE PA-MONTGOMERY PA-MORRIS NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHAMPTON PA- NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-QUEEN ANNE'S MD- SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SUSSEX NJ-TALBOT MD- WARREN NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ- 900 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 2004
... HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM LATE TODAY INTO MONDAY MORNING...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND IT SHOULD SLOWLY PASS THROUGH EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY TONIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED TO BE COMMON IN THE REGION FROM LATE TODAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOME LOCATIONS MIGHT RECEIVE UP TO AROUND TWO INCHES OF RAIN DURING THAT PERIOD OF TIME. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ROADWAY FLOODING AS WELL AS SOME FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ALSO, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND. IF YOU OBSERVE THREATENING WEATHER, SEEK SHELTER AT ONCE.