Gary Gray from Millennium issues 2004 season forecast

[cycloneye]

http://www.millenniumweather.com/tropical/season.html

Interesting what he says about less landfalls for the US in 2004 counting on a weak el nino developing and making systems recurve and have less threats.But when you read the whole outlook he mentions the high and low risk areas that he thinks landfall will occur.Florida sticks out with the eastern gulf and Georgia,South Carolina and North Carolina as a moderate/high risk areas according to him.Let's see how all pans out when reallity comes.

[Typhoon_Willie]

And we know reality will come soon! Bring the season on!

[cycloneye]

I found in his report that he doesn't mention the caribbean at all unless he is only talking about the US coastline in terms of possible landfalls.

[rainstorm]

the 2 areas he mentions are always the high risk areas

[wxman57]

Oops. He has Fabian on his mind:

"And what was the "highlight" storm last year? Fabian, of course, which blistered portions of North Carolina and Virginia. "

Of course, it was Isabel that hit NC/VA.

Also, he's counting on a weak El Nino in defining his analog years. Well, as we see in the other thread, there may be a weak to moderate La Nina in 2004. That could mean a greater threat of storms NOT turning out to sea.

[Steve]

>>Also, he's counting on a weak El Nino in defining his analog years. Well, as we see in the other thread, there may be a weak to moderate La Nina in 2004. That could mean a greater threat of storms NOT turning out to sea.

Great point 57. I haven't looked at the depth charts of the EPAC coast lately, but it seems as though La Ninaesque conditions are inveitable in the near term.

I read the forecast. I think Gray gives himself a little too much credit. He was HORRIBLE in 2002. I repeatedly cited his forecast glitch which was primarily due to his belief that the Bermuda Ridge would be anchored pretty far offshore. His target area was coastal NC but speculated that almost all storms would be curving out to sea that year. It turned out to be one of the most active landfalling seasons in the Gulf. We got two storms here in LA (Isidore and Lili) and felt effects (rainbands or raindrops) from like 5 other storms including some deep level moisture from storms in the EPAC.

But if he is right about his El Nino scenario, I can definitely see the NW corner of FL as being a target area. I still haven't reasearched nearly enough information to see what this year is going to bring. But I do suspect that the NE Gulf may be a hotspot. Also, if you go by Dr. William Gray's analog years, a good 70-80% of the storms were Western Atlantic fish spinners. Gary Gray put some emphasis on his analogs which showed similar patterns (didn't cross check to see if he used the same analogs as I read Dr. Gray's 4/04 forecast about 3 weeks ago).

Steve