SOI back to positive territory

[hurricanetrack]

The good ole SOI number is back up in the positive range now. For all those who DO NOT want El Nino to make an appearance, this is good news. However, if the SOI were to tank again as it did recently (-63 one day!!!) then everything could change and we might be looking at the return of Mr. Nino. But for now, the SOI is helping things out. We shall see how it all progresses here in the next 40 days or so.

[cycloneye]

No chance for el nino to make an appeareance during this hurricane season unless some unexpetected event happens like the soi to go down again or a huge kelvin wave.

[hurricanetrack]

Luis- for the most part, I hope you're right. It is kind of strange to want to see lots of hurricanes out there. We never want people to have their lives harmed, but then again, we love seeing the spectacular beauty of them as well as enjoy the anticipation of where they will go.

So- hopefully, we can enjoy another action-packed hurricane season. Keep El Nino out of the picture!

[mf_dolphin]

Mark, it's kind of like watching NASCAR. You know there's going to be a wreck sooner or later. You're excited by the prospect of the wreck and still you hope no one gets hurt.

[Stormsfury]

Luis- for the most part, I hope you're right. It is kind of strange to want to see lots of hurricanes out there. We never want people to have their lives harmed, but then again, we love seeing the spectacular beauty of them as well as enjoy the anticipation of where they will go.

So- hopefully, we can enjoy another action-packed hurricane season. Keep El Nino out of the picture!

Unless, we have another 1997-like appearance of El Nino where SST's rose in excess of 3-5ºC in just a very short period of time (of course, later, La Niña came in just as fast with SST's dropping 5ºC or more in less than a month), ENSO shouldn't have much of a factor on the 2004 Season. IMHO, this shouldn't happen this go around, even with the recent appearance with that last Kelvin Wave.

1997 Monthly SST Anomalies

1998 Monthly SST Anomalies

[HURRICANELONNY]

Maybe it's me but everytime the SOI goes towards positive or is positive, the SST look warmer. When it was so called "tanked" in the negative sense then the SST looked cooler at the surface.

[hurricanetrack]

Those were great animations on the previous post up two or so. That really shows the developmeny of the awesome El Nino of 1997 and its subsequent demise in 1998.

Very cool.