STY Sudal (03W)

[senorpepr]

Is it me... or do I see a smiley face in the heart of that convection?

[Guest]

Oh i am certain you will be seeing this and a bunch of other great stuff as well Steph this Cane season! :)

Great graphic Chad!!!

[senorpepr]

Remember that although the US is recognizing this system as a tropical storm, RSMC Japan sees this system as only a tropical depression since WMO standard wind measuring practices outside of the US is based off of a different time average, equating to lower calculated wind speeds. Regardless, the RSMC has this system becoming a tropical storm within the next day. When that happens, the name Sudal will be given.

[senorpepr]

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 03W ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
8 AM GUAM LST MON APR 5 2004

...TROPICAL STORM 03W HAS RESUMED A NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PULUWAT IN CHUUK
STATE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SATAWAL IN
YAP STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 03W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 149.1 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 30 MILES NORTH OF PULUWAT...140 MILES EAST OF
SATAWAL...360 MILES EAST OF WOLEAI...AND 505 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM.

TROPICAL STORM 03W HAS RESUMED A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AT 7 MPH.
THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. TROPICAL
STORM 03W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TYPHOON MID-MORNING TUESDAY.

REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...7.5 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 149.1
DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...MONITOR TROPICAL STORM
03W LOCAL STATEMENT /WTPQ81 PGUM/ AND OTHER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 11 AM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 2 PM GUAM LST.

STANKO

[Stephanie]

Oh i am certain you will be seeing this and a bunch of other great stuff as well Steph this Cane season! :)

Great graphic Chad!!!

I don't doubt it KOW!

Senorpepr - that smiley looks evil!

[Stormsfury]

Is it me... or do I see a smiley face in the heart of that convection?

Yep ... and it isn't Casper the Friendly Ghost either ...

[senorpepr]

I present to you... Sudal...

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SUDAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
11 AM GUAM LST MON APR 5 2004

CHANGED ALL REFERENCES FROM 03W TO SUDAL


TROPICAL STORM SUDAL PASSING NORTH OF PULUWAT

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PULUWAT AND SATAWAL.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

AT 10 AM GUAM LST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SUDAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.9 DEGREES
EAST...OR ABOUT 65 MILES NORTH OF PULUWAT...130 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST
OF SATAWAL AND 470 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM.

SUDAL IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TROPICAL STORM
SUDAL IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY.

REPEATING THE 10 AM POSITION...8.0 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 148.9
DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...MONITOR TROPICAL STORM
SUDAL LOCAL STATEMENT /WTPQ81 PGUM/ AND OTHER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM.

MUNDELL

[senorpepr]

It's interesting how the NWS in Guam has given 03W it's name, while NRL and JTWC have held-back.

[senorpepr]

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SUDAL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
2 PM GUAM LST MON APR 5 2004


TROPICAL STORM SUDAL BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED NORTH OF PULUWAT

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PULUWAT AND SATAWAL.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SUDAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.7 DEGREES
EAST...OR ABOUT 80 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PULUWAT...125 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF SATAWAL AND 450 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM.

SUDAL IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TROPICAL STORM
SUDAL IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY.

REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...8.2 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 148.7
DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...MONITOR TROPICAL STORM
SUDAL LOCAL STATEMENT /WTPQ81 PGUM/ AND OTHER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 5 PM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT ADVISORY AT 8 PM.

MUNDELL

[senorpepr]

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SUDAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
5 PM GUAM LST MON APR 5 2004


TROPICAL STORM SUDAL BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED NORTH OF PULUWAT

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PULUWAT AND SATAWAL.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

AT 430 PM GUAM LST...0630Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SUDAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.8 DEGREES
EAST...OR ABOUT 130 MILES NORTH OF PULUWAT...155 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SATAWAL AND 415 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM.

SUDAL IS MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TROPICAL STORM
SUDAL IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY.

REPEATING THE 430 PM POSITION...8.9 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 148.8
DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 MPH.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...MONITOR TROPICAL STORM
SUDAL LOCAL STATEMENT /WTPQ81 PGUM/ AND OTHER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 11
PM GUAM LST.

AHN

[senorpepr]

NRL Monterey has this system labeled as Sudal now as RSMC Japan has upgraded 03W to TS status. (Remember, wind speeds overseas are calcuated at a different average than in the US) Expect the JTWC to follow suit on their 09Z advisory.

[senorpepr]

Just a quick note here than NRL Monterey has Sudal at 65 mph with a pressure of 984mb. The foresee Sudal becoming the first typhoon of the season within the next 12 hours.

[senorpepr]

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SUDAL ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
8 PM GUAM LST MON APR 5 2004


TROPICAL STORM SUDAL SHOWS MORE POLEWARD MOTION

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PULUWAT IN CHUUK
STATE AND SATAWAL IN YAP STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SUDAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.6 DEGREES
EAST...OR ABOUT 145 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PULUWAT...155 MILES
NORTHEAST OF SATAWAL AND 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM.

SUDAL IS MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TROPICAL STORM
SUDAL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON LATE TONIGHT. A TYPHOON WATCH
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF MARIANA ISLANDS TUESDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...9.1 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 148.6
DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...REFER TROPICAL STORM
SUDAL LOCAL STATEMENT /WTPQ81 PGUM/ AND OTHER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 11 PM TONIGHT GUAM LST FOLLOWED BY A SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 2 AM
GUAM LST TUESDAY.

AHN

[senorpepr]

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SUDAL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
5 AM GUAM LST TUE APR 6 2004


TROPICAL STORM SUDAL CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE MARIANAS

A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA IN THE MARIANAS.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PULUWAT IN CHUUK
STATE AND SATAWAL IN YAP STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24
HOURS.

AT 4 AM GUAM LST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SUDAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 147.6 DEGREES
EAST...OR ABOUT 210 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PULUWAT...160 MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SATAWAL AND 320 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM.

SUDAL IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH. A SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH. TROPICAL
STORM SUDAL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON THIS MORNING.

REPEATING THE 4 AM POSITION...9.7 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 147.6
DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM SUDAL LOCAL STATEMENT /WTPQ81 PGUM/ AND OTHER
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 8 AM GUAM LST FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT
11 AM GUAM LST.

STANKO

[senorpepr]

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SUDAL ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
8 AM GUAM LST TUE APR 6 2004


TROPICAL STORM SUDAL CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE MARIANAS

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR PULUWAT AND SATAWAL ARE CANCELLED AS
OF 8 AM GUAM LST.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA IN THE MARIANAS.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SUDAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 147.3 DEGREES
EAST...OR ABOUT 230 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PULUWAT...170 MILES
NORTH OF SATAWAL AND 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM.

SUDAL IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH. TROPICAL
STORM SUDAL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON LATER TODAY.

REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...9.9 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 147.3
DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM SUDAL LOCAL STATEMENT /WTPQ81 PGUM/ AND OTHER
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 11 AM GUAM LST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT
2 PM GUAM LST.

STANKO

[chadtm80]

Positions Time Latitude Longitude Wind speed (kts) Gust (kts) Pressure Category
Analysis 05/6:00 PM Z 9.7 147.6 055 070 N/A Tropical Storm
12hr Forecast 06/6:00 AM Z 10.3 146.4 065 080 H1
24hr Forecast 06/6:00 PM Z 10.8 145.0 075 090 H1
36hr Forecast 07/6:00 AM Z 11.1 143.4 080 100 H1
48hr Forecast 07/6:00 PM Z 11.2 141.6 085 105 H2
72hr Forecast 08/6:00 PM Z 11.6 138.8 095 115 H2
96hr Forecast 09/6:00 PM Z 12.6 136.2 105 130 H3
120hr Forecast 10/6:00 PM Z 14.1 133.9 110 135 H3

[senorpepr]

New Dvorak estimates have come out:

05/2025 UTC 9.1N 147.0E T4.0/4.0 SUDAL -- West Pacific Ocean

[senorpepr]

...if anyone knows of a working webcam in Guam, that would be super...

[senorpepr]

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SUDAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
11 AM GUAM LST TUE APR 6 2004

...TROPICAL STORM SUDAL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS...

A TYPHOON WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS...DAMAGING WINDS FROM
A TYPHOON IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

AT 10 AM GUAM LST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SUDAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 147.0 DEGREES
EAST...OR ABOUT 320 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM.

SUDAL IS MOVING WEST AT 7 MPH. LITTLE CHANGE IN MOTION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF SUDAL WILL PASS ABOUT 150 TO
200 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF GUAM ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SUDAL IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...BECOMING A TYPHOON LATER TODAY.

REPEATING THE 10 AM POSITION...9.4 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 147.0
DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST AT 7 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 70 MPH.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
SUDAL LOCAL STATEMENT /WTPQ81 PGUM/ AND OTHER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE
GUAM WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM.

MUNDELL

[senorpepr]

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WDPN31 PGTW 051500   
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W WARNING NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 051200Z8 TO 101200Z4 APR 2004.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 051130Z0
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. EARLIER
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWED A BANDING EYE FEATURE DEVELOPING.
   B. THE MID-LATITUDE RIDGE IS EXPECTED THE STRENGTHEN DURING
THE NEXT 12 HOURS SHIFTING THE TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND
PROVIDING THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, GFDN,
NCEP GFS, JGSM, AND JTYM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS.
   C. TS 03W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM ENJOYS GOOD OUT-
FLOW AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM NEARS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.
   D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY
FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.
   E. TS 03W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING AS IT NEARS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SUSTAIN A WEAKENED RIDGE ALLOWING
TS 03W TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/NOREN/VOHS//