STY Sudal (03W)

[senorpepr]

NRL Monterey has upgraded 99W to 03W. The first advisory will come out around 03Z.

18Z
6.8N 150.5E
30 mph
1002mb / 29.59"

[senorpepr]

[chadtm80]

What do you think senor? Doesn't seem like much to stop it from progressing?

[Anonymous]

03W does have the potential to become an intense typhoon, with the possibility of rapid intensification. The good news, is that 03W will likely pass to the south of Guam. An upper level trough will weaken the subtropical ridge, which should allow the (strong) typhoon to recurve w/o affecting any large landmasses.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Let us hope that scenario will play out!

[senorpepr]

03W does have the potential to become an intense typhoon, with the possibility of rapid intensification. The good news, is that 03W will likely pass to the south of Guam. An upper level trough will weaken the subtropical ridge, which should allow the (strong) typhoon to recurve w/o affecting any large landmasses.

I'm seeing the same thing... a descent intensification phase in the near future for 03W. As TropicalWxWatcher noted, this system should stay south of Guam, possibly producing some additional cloudiness for the island. However, there are a handful of smaller islands along the Micronesia and Caroline Island chain that will probably be effect within the next few days. Our attention should also be watched toward the Philippines. It still *WAY* too early to tell, but this system, climotology-speaking, can effect Luzon Island of the Philippines. Bottom line, in a few days, we may be talking about Typhoon Sudal effecting a few locations in Eastern or Southeastern Asia.

[chadtm80]

https://afweather.afwa.af.mil/images/sa ... MSIR01.GIF

https://www.npmoc.navy.mil/sat/gms_nwpa ... ac_vis.jpg

[senorpepr]

Code: Select all

WDPN31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 040000Z4 TO 070000Z7 APR 2004.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
100 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 032330Z1 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 25, 30, AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER.
   B. TD 03W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST, WEAKENING THE RIDGE BY 24 HOURS,
CAUSING THE TRACK TO SHIFT MORE POLEWARD. AS THE TROUGH PASSES,
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN AND TD 03W WILL TRANSITION
TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, NCEP GFS, AND JGSM ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TD 03W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE
SIZED SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/JACOBS/SCHULTZ/HEILER//

[Anonymous]

WTPQ31 PGUM 040340
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
2 PM GUAM LST SUN APR 4 2004

..TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W HAS FORMED EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE
AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SATAWAL IN YAP STATE
AS OF 2 PM GUAM LST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN 48 HOURS.

AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 6.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.2 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 90 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PULUWAT...220 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SATAWAL...135 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK AND
605 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W WAS MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 03W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATE TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...6.5 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 150.2
DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 35 MPH.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...MONITOR TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LOCAL STATEMENT /WTPQ81 PGUM/ AND OTHER PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 5 PM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 8 PM.

$$

ZIOBRO

[senorpepr]

For the latest advisories from NWS Guam, click on

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/cyclone.html

then above 'Public Advisory' click on "3"

[senorpepr]

COASTAL MARINE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
6 AM LST SUN APR 4 2004

MARIANAS WATERS OUT TO 40 NAUTICAL MILES

PMZ150-040700-

SYNOPSIS FOR MARIANAS WATERS
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. SHOWERS...WINDS AND
SEAS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

PMZ151-152-153-154-040700-
MARIANAS WATERS-
6 AM LST SUN APR 4 2004


HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT

TODAY
NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 20 KT. OFFSHORE SEAS MODERATE 7 FT.
SURF HAZARDOUS 7 TO 9 FT ON NORTHERN CLOCKWISE THROUGH EASTERN
EXPOSURES AND 2 TO 4 FT ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY
NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 20 KT. OFFSHORE SEAS
ROUGH 9 FT. SURF HAZARDOUS 8 TO 10 FT ON NORTHERN CLOCKWISE THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN EXPOSURES AND 3 TO 6 FT ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY
NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 25 KT. OFFSHORE SEAS ROUGH 10 FT.
SURF HAZARDOUS 9 TO 11 FT ON NORTHERN CLOCKWISE THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
EXPOSURES AND 3 TO 6 FT ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
EAST WIND 25 KT...GUSTING TO 35 KT IN
SHOWERS. OFFSHORE SEAS ROUGH 10 FT. SURF HAZARDOUS 8 TO 10 FT ON
NORTHERN CLOCKWISE THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN EXPOSURES AND 3 TO 6 FT
ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS.

[senorpepr]

The latest Dvorak technique numbers are 2.0/2.0

[senorpepr]

Code: Select all

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
5 PM GUAM LST SUN APR 4 2004


TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W MOVING SLOWLY WEST

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PULUWAT IN CHUUK
STATE AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SATAWAL IN
YAP STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING
SURFACE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24
HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

AT 430 PM GUAM LST...0630Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 6.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 149.8
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 80 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PULUWAT...200
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SATAWAL...410 MILES EAST OF WOLEAI...AND 600
MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W WAS MOVING WEST AT 7 MPH. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 03W IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 03W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 430 PM POSITION...6.3 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 149.8
DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST AT 7 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 35 MPH.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...MONITOR TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LOCAL STATEMENT /WTPQ81 PGUM/ AND OTHER PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT
11 PM GUAM LST.

AHN

[senorpepr]

[senorpepr]

Current long-range models indicate 03W will continue to strengthen into a typhoon, while tracking between Guam and the Philippines... in the Philippine Sea. The biggest risk at the moment is to Guam and the southern Mariana Islands. Regardless, this system will need to be monitored.

[senorpepr]

Code: Select all

WTPQ31 PGUM 040954
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
8 PM GUAM LST SUN APR 4 2004

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W MOVING SLOWLY WEST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PULUWAT IN CHUUK
STATE AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SATAWAL IN
YAP STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR HIGHER ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24
HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 6.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 149.6 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PULUWAT...185 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SATAWAL...400 MILES EAST OF WOLEAI...AND 590 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W WAS MOVING WEST AT 7 MPH. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 03W IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN FORWARDING SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 03W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...6.4 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 149.6
DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST AT 7 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 35 MPH.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...MONITOR TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LOCAL STATEMENT /WTPQ81 PGUM/ AND OTHER PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 11 PM TONIGHT GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY A SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 2 AM MONDAY GUAM LST.

$$

AHN

[senorpepr]

Dvorak estimates are at T2.0. Additionally, the latest forecast has 03W becoming a 105 mph typhoon by the end of period. Tropical Storm Warnings have been posted out of the NWS Office in Guam.

[chadtm80]

[Rainband]

Excellent graphic BUD. You DA MAN!!!!!

[Stephanie]

That's a great graphic Chad! I hope we'll be seeing this in the S2K weather map section!