Outlook for the US coastline in next 2 decades is scary

[cycloneye]

http://garnet.acns.fsu.edu/~jelsner/HTM ... dclim.html

Navigating thru the internet I found this very interesting outlook that was made in june 2001 but it covers from that year on thru 30 years and it shows an active landfall period for the US coasts.If you dont want to read the whole thing scroll down to #7 and there you will see the conclusions about what they think will happen in the next 3 decades.And those who live in Florida may want to look closely at those numbers that are scary when you see them.But one thing is making an outlook and another is in reallity what will happen as many factors as we know come into play and may make that outlook go wrong in many of those years ahead.Any comments about this are welcomed.

[MGC]

Doubt tropical activity remains like it is the next 30 years. We are currently in the middle of a 20 year up cycle in the Atlantic basin. As I figure it, we have another 10 years or so and then we will hit another dry cycle simular to the 70-80 period where there were not as many TC's. Weather runs in cycles and hurricanes have their cycles too......MGC

[cycloneye]

Doubt tropical activity remains like it is the next 30 years. We are currently in the middle of a 20 year up cycle in the Atlantic basin. As I figure it, we have another 10 years or so and then we will hit another dry cycle simular to the 70-80 period where there were not as many TC's. Weather runs in cycles and hurricanes have their cycles too......MGC

Actually the active period we are now started in 1995 so we will see more active seasons in the next 15-20 maybe 25 years after that a more less active pattern will come.

[Guest]

Doubt tropical activity remains like it is the next 30 years. We are currently in the middle of a 20 year up cycle in the Atlantic basin. As I figure it, we have another 10 years or so and then we will hit another dry cycle simular to the 70-80 period where there were not as many TC's. Weather runs in cycles and hurricanes have their cycles too......MGC

Actually the active period we are now started in 1995 so we will see more active seasons in the next 15-20 maybe 25 years after that a more less active pattern will come.

You are correct sir!

Scary to some but very true.There might be a slow season here & there but from I've read,as a whole,we are in that active cycle which did begin in 95 as cycloneye mentioned & should continue for another 20 years at least if not longer.Similar to the pattern that happened from the 40's through the 60's.

[Rainband]

I found the numbers on Florida Interesting. We have been lucky... save Andrew...the question is how long will that luck last???

[wxman57]

I've done considerable research on hurricane activity in "warm" vs. "cool" Atlatnic SST regimes from 1900-present. The cool regimes typically last about 25 years, but the warm regimes may last a bit longer (perhaps 30-40 years or more). In any case, I actually found that there were slightly MORE named storms during cooler Atlantic SST regimes (very slightly). But the number if INTENSE hurricanes is nearly double during warm Atlantic SST regimes. We've had 32 major hurricanes since 1995 but only 3 have hit the U.S. Climatology says 10 should have hit. We have been very, very luck so far, but the luck just cannot old out.

I can name plenty major hurricanes that hit the U.S. in seasons with 8 or fewer named storms (Audrey, Beulah, Great 1900 Galveston, Andrew, Alicia, Donna and lots more). It's not the number, it's the development patterns and steering patterns that we have to watch for. The last 9 hears has been dominated by a negative NAO regime, resulting in a weaker Bermuda High and more storms turning out to sea. Will this negative NAO continue forever? Nope. The hurricanes will be hitting with much higher frequency in the coming decades. You can count on it.

[Guest]

Interesting stuff...Thanks wxman57!

& I agree with you 100% when you said its not the #'s but the wx patterns & steering currents which ultimately are the biggest factors in landfalls.Those hurricanes you mentioned are great example of that.

Thats why I could care less when I hear of El Nino or La Nina.In fact, my area gets hit more often in "slower" seasons.

[mf_dolphin]

I just wish everyone would quit mentioning Florida LOL I know the west coast of Florida is totally unprepared. Sooner or later our luck will run out. I just hope I have time to get to Arizona lol

[MWatkins]

This just in from the Brazilian Met Agency:

"No hurricanes are expected in the Tropical North Atlantic this season...however...12 to 14 brand new never-before-seen-rotating-extratropical-cylones will develop. There will be no need to alert the public."

Shut the board down. There will be nothing to talk about.

MW

[vbhoutex]

This just in from the Brazilian Met Agency:

"No hurricanes are expected in the Tropical North Atlantic this season...however...12 to 14 brand new never-before-seen-rotating-extratropical-cylones will develop. There will be no need to alert the public."

Shut the board down. There will be nothing to talk about.

MW

[Guest]

LOL

[cycloneye]

This just in from the Brazilian Met Agency:

"No hurricanes are expected in the Tropical North Atlantic this season...however...12 to 14 brand new never-before-seen-rotating-extratropical-cylones will develop. There will be no need to alert the public."

Shut the board down. There will be nothing to talk about.

MW

Well let's make our forecasts for 2005.