South atlantic system=Any effect on the season ahead?

[cycloneye]

Will this very rare south atlantic hurricane have any effect on the upcomming 2004 north atlantic season?

I say it is early to say what kind of effect making the season more active or less active but we will know eventually.

[Hurricanehink]

I think it will have no effect. There has never been a South Atlantic cyclone before (well, maybe one or two) but I doubt it would have any effect. The Atlantic has been very active in the past decade or so, so I believe it will continue to be just as active. Of course, it <I>could</I> be less active. If it is less active, then it could be from the storm.

[Hyperstorm]

The hurricane...no. The factors that contributed to the formation of this hurricane...possibly.

[wxman57]

Could, perhaps, be less active north of the equator. The QBO is just about to switch to the unfavorable easterly phase in the tropcial Atlantic. This could be a sign that the switch may already be in place.

[Anonymous]

2004 -4.84, 2.61

[vacanechaser]

I doubt it would effect the season at all.... For those of you saying it could make the season less active, I dont see it that way... I would think by this storm popping in an area that has not seen a hurricane, at least that we know about, that says something about the atlantic... I would think it is a sign that the atlantic as a whole, is warmer than average, generally and that there is this build up of energy that had to be released.. I think that it could be a sign that the atlantic season could be just as active or maybe a little more than seasons past... IE the past 8-9 years... I mean, there was this build up of energy, the conditions were just right, and it had to do something with it... It is the right time of year below the equator for it to happen... We will just have to see...

[vacanechaser]

Could, perhaps, be less active north of the equator. The QBO is just about to switch to the unfavorable easterly phase in the tropcial Atlantic. This could be a sign that the switch may already be in place.

But if that is true, that it is changing, does it not change for a 5-6 month period??? If so, then it would change to the more favored condition right in time for the heart of the season... Besides, last years was unfavorable if I am correct, through most of the August, September time frame... I dont think that is really going to be a factor...

[wxman57]

Could, perhaps, be less active north of the equator. The QBO is just about to switch to the unfavorable easterly phase in the tropcial Atlantic. This could be a sign that the switch may already be in place.

But if that is true, that it is changing, does it not change for a 5-6 month period??? If so, then it would change to the more favored condition right in time for the heart of the season... Besides, last years was unfavorable if I am correct, through most of the August, September time frame... I dont think that is really going to be a factor...

It's called the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation because the oscillation is about every 2 years. For the past 2 years, the stratospheric winds in the tropical North Atlantic have been from a favorable westerly direction. This reduces shear south of 20N and can lead to increased low-latitude development potential. But the "favorable" cycle north of the equator is about at the end. In fact, the shear reduction in the South Atlantic could be a sign that the favorable westerly winds have already dropped south of the equator. If that's the case, then the next 2 seasons will be somewhat quieter. But the Atlantic SSTs remain quite warm, so we could just see reduced low-latitude intensity (like in 2000-2002) rather than a significant drop-off in numbers.

[Turtle742]

I think it's too early to tell...BUT...

Interesting that the water is very warm all over the Atlantic (well, except up around the northwestern Atlantic, after the COOOOLLLDDD winter here), and Dr. Gray's theory of the thermohaline (sp?) "conveyer belt" theory mixing the waters.

Also interesting to read today about another tropical system in January (possible weak TS) off Brazil, as well as one back in April 1991 off the coast of Congo (HMMM...didn't read anything on that one??!!)

In any event...VERY interesting!

--Turtle

[chadtm80]

Yep, that TS was dissucused here back in January too... Very interesting in deed.

[cycloneye]

Plenty of research will come after these events this year in the south atlantic and it may provide the proffesional mets with new factors to think and analize in terms of the north atlantic seasons in years to come.

[CaluWxBill]

Plenty of research will come after these events this year in the south atlantic and it may provide the proffesional mets with new factors to think and analize in terms of the north atlantic seasons in years to come.

Well if we get that supposed flip-flop in the thermohaline circulation of the N. Atlantic, It may result in a greater concentration of warm waters in the S. Atlantic, which could shift the ITCZ in the winter to spring months far enough south to get below 10°S latitude, which result in the a much stronger coriolis effect on the ITCZ, and then some tropical storm and Hurricane would likely form in the area, more likely North of the area of the recent cyclone but it could be significant enough. Of course this is all speculation after speculation.

[Guest]

Like hyperstorm said. The Hurricane itself NO. What helped to form it. Perhaps. The qbo will play a intresting role but not the determining factor in overall numbers imo anyways. Yeah it will take away a little but other things which some have covered here will help make up for that. All i am gonna say on this for now because i am still working on my outlook for this season which hopefully will be done by May 1. Either way i still expect another above average season!