Tropical Update: 27 Mar

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senorpepr
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Tropical Update: 27 Mar

#1 Postby senorpepr » Sat Mar 27, 2004 12:39 pm

:rarrow: A) TC Fay (18S): at 27/1125Z...
Position near 21.1S 120.1E (100nm NE of Port Hedland, Australia)
Movement toward the S at 5 mph
Maximum sustained winds are 100 mph
Minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.37")
T# numbers: Overland

Fay has made landfall in the Western Australia Territory of Australia. We’ll monitor this system as it falls apart over land.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warni ... 804web.txt

:rarrow: B) TC Oscar (20S): at 27/1430Z...
Position near 19.1S 90.6E (480nm SW of Cocos Islands)
Movement toward the SSW at 7 mph
Maximum sustained winds are 60 mph
Minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.23")
T# numbers: 3.0/3.5

Oscar has rapidly weakened as the cyclone has entered an area of increased wind shear, decreased outflow aloft, and cooler water temperatures. Expect this trend to continue as it transitions into an extratropical cyclone.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warni ... 004web.txt

:rarrow: C) Ex-TC 21-S (21S): at 27/1430Z...
Position near 9.6S 52.5E (640nm NE of Antananarivo, Madagascar)
Maximum sustained winds are 30 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.67")
Potential for development: Poor

The low level circulation associated with 21S is now displaced to the southeast by wind shear, while being fully exposed. With this in mind, the JTWC has downgraded its potential for redevelopment.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/ab/abioweb.txt

:rarrow: D) HR 01-L (01L): at 27/1709Z...
Position near 29.5S 46.4W
Maximum sustained winds are 85 mph
Minimum central pressure is 981 mb (29.05")
T# numbers: 4.5/4.5

There is nothing significantly new to report today. Some slight strengthening took place over night. Otherwise, 01L is prepared to make landfall as some of the south band are already reaching the Brazilian coast. I’ll keep you updated with some of the latest observations.

http://www.inmet.gov.br/sistemas/newNot ... entral.jsp
http://www.storm2k.org/weather800/s.atlantic.htm

Please utilize the above links for the latest advisories. For latest forecast tracks and satellite imagery (when available), go to the NRL Monterey's website at: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Remember for the latest storm information, to include watches, warnings, and storm track, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
Last edited by senorpepr on Sat Mar 27, 2004 4:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby senorpepr » Sat Mar 27, 2004 12:49 pm

Looking at observations in southern Brazil... nothing much to report yet. Mainly a few cumulus and altocumulus clouds with a blanket of cirrus aloft. Winds are light and varible. Pressure ranged from 29.92 to 30.02. Temperatures range in the 60s (°F) with dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
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#3 Postby senorpepr » Sat Mar 27, 2004 1:11 pm

From AFWA...

It looks like they have bumped 01L to a T5.0 on the Dvorak scale. It will be interesting to see what the other agencies do...

Code: Select all

TPNT KGWC 271525
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE SOUTH ATLANTIC
B. 27/1431Z (19)
C. 29.5S/6
D. 46.8W/8
E. FOUR/GOES12
F. T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24HRS  -27/1130Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

   07A/ PBO 20NM IRREG EYE/ANMTN.

RUNDIO
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#4 Postby senorpepr » Sat Mar 27, 2004 4:44 pm

Note: I've added a conversion to atmosphere pressure in inches of mercury in addition to millibars.
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#5 Postby senorpepr » Sat Mar 27, 2004 7:18 pm

There is yet another amendment. However, it's on the new Tropical Update page!

Check out: http://www.storm2k.org/weather800/senorpepr.htm
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