No Name looks better organized........

[dixiebreeze]

this morning and seems to be more on a westerly course. Looks like landfall could be today or Sunday unless it swerves south, which I doubt at this point. Anyone know what cities are in its path?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

[dixiebreeze]

T-# still at 4.5 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

And the eye has better symetry this a.m., less elongated.

[Josephine96]

Thank you for the updates Dixie

[Aquawind]

It does look impressive on the visable loop this am.
The area where landfall could ocurr (N of 30 around 50 is on the edge of the Rio Grande mountains. looks like some flooding is possibe in the valley areas north of Porto Alegre (30S52W) which happens to be a large population. If it does stay north of 30S there will be some good flooding rains along a mountainous coastline with a few small communities along the coast. Trouble for somebody..

[Hurricanehink]

So it has strengthened! According to NRL Montery, our Southern Hurricane is up to 85 M.P.H. or 75 knots. The pressure fell, too. I wonder how much stronger it will get. Hopefully, sometime in the near future, the NHC or somebody will do a thorough report of how it formed and why it formed.

[msbee]

that's what I want to know..
how and why? and why is it that hurricanes never have formed here before?
are the waters not warm enough usually?

[CaluWxBill]

that's what I want to know..
how and why? and why is it that hurricanes never have formed here before?
are the waters not warm enough usually?

It is because the ITCZ Normally straddles the equator, in this situation no cyclonic rotation can form. However if they have formed in the past they probably formed in a manner similar to the current hurricane, where an mid-upper level cyclone gets cutoff and deepens over the relatively warm mid to upper 70's water. and mid-high 70's is not a real good situation, but is probably adequate for certain events, and the recent hgt in sst anomalies, certainly helped fuel conditions for this event.

I should also mention the strong shear brought about by a continous westerly winds in the Southern Ocean, or I am not sure what they are calling it now.