Massive cutoff low to produce late season wintry weather???

[Stormsfury]

In the OV/NE? ... KOW, you paying attention?







Very impressive cutoff indicated by the 12z GFS ... with 1000-500mb thickness schemes dipping as low as 522dm, which would probably be decent enough to support snow in this situation (with steeper lapse rates, and dynamics taking hold) ... beforehand, the potential may exist for some severe weather with hail being the primary threat out ahead of the deepening cutoff ...

The New ECMWF at 12z has the cutoff over the OV (South of Michigan) on Day 5 - 7 ... notice the closed off lows in the Pacific, a very blocky pattern getting ready to set up ... (not surprising, really ... hell, look off the coast of South America) ...

[therock1811]

You gotta be kidding me SF??? I mean heck, it's almost 70° right now here in Florence...and now you're telling me it might snow north of me at the least????

[Stormsfury]

You gotta be kidding me SF??? I mean heck, it's almost 70° right now here in Florence...and now you're telling me it might snow north of me at the least????

The 18z GFS continues the idea ... with the lowest thickness schemes over KY (less than 528dm) at 114 hours ... but this doesn't appear to be a heavy event by any means, just another attempt of winter trying to hold on a little longer ...

[Guest]

Oh i have been watching this with high intrest SF. Really dont wanna believe it seeing how i am rather enjoying going out with no coat on. But none the less it seems like we may have to cancel spring again come next week out in these parts. However its still about 4 to 5 days away so it has a little time to adjust itself. Precip wise it doesnt look that impressive Yet anyways. However the 18z as you just posted could be a trend in favor of bringing in more moisture as with a more southerly set up would help to capture more GOM moisture and as well even some Atlantic. Time will tell either way it does look like old man winter wants to give us another jab next week.

What a heck of a set up either way comming up. Crazy stuff which isnt even including the Cane in the south Atlantic. Very impressive to say the least!

Get ready rock!

[LMolineux]

I am also seing one heck of a blocking pattern holding that cutoff low there untill it dies out. Its amazing this late in the season but not really impossible. But it has the chance to happen. As i figured a system would effect the MA/NE and OV areas somewhere between March 30th and April 4th. And dang its looking like so. What a cutoff low and it just taking forever to move out. i figured it wouldnt be off shore so this pattern looks good. I am ready for one last gasp of snow. Then lets have 70's and sun for a few days.

[therock1811]

Oh I'll be ready...can't believe it myself!

[Guest]

I am also seing one heck of a blocking pattern holding that cutoff low there untill it dies out. Its amazing this late in the season but not really impossible. But it has the chance to happen. As i figured a system would effect the MA/NE and OV areas somewhere between March 30th and April 4th. And dang its looking like so. What a cutoff low and it just taking forever to move out. i figured it wouldnt be off shore so this pattern looks good. I am ready for one last gasp of snow. Then lets have 70's and sun for a few days.

I HIGHLY doubt you get much if any snow out of this LM. This look to be mainly confined to the Apps on west if it does there even.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Ala 1982 all over agian?

[Anonymous]

it's interesting to note how the NWS is mistaken late next week for 4/1 and 4/2 here in the CHAS area. Last evenings forecast called for max temps mid 70's next Friday ????? This does not make sense considering the strength and position of the upper air low and associated low thickness schemes mentioned above over the SE for 4/1 and 4/2. 12Z 850mb Euro showed the 2C line over Columbia 4/1. Even with dry adiabatic lapse rate, this should extrapolate for surface max no greater than the high 50's on 4/1 and mid 50's F in the lowcountry on 4/2. Minimums could reach the 30's both nights. Any precipitation being thrown into the equation in the state during this time would indicate even lower temperatures, possibly significantly lower. Late next week, much below normal means are likely in the middle Atlantic and SE, far more representative of early March/late February.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_144.gif

[Stormsfury]

it's interesting to note how the NWS is mistaken late next week for 4/1 and 4/2 here in the CHAS area. Last evenings forecast called for max temps mid 70's next Friday ????? This does not make sense considering the strength and position of the upper air low and associated low thickness schemes mentioned above over the SE for 4/1 and 4/2. 12Z 850mb Euro showed the 2C line over Columbia 4/1. Even with dry adiabatic lapse rate, this should extrapolate for surface max no greater than the high 50's on 4/1 and mid 50's F in the lowcountry on 4/2. Minimums could reach the 30's both nights. Any precipitation being thrown into the equation in the state during this time would indicate even lower temperatures, possibly significantly lower. Late next week, much below normal means are likely in the middle Atlantic and SE, far more representative of early March/late February.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_144.gif

Yeah, something else to note, though, is that such as setup COULD provide a potential for large-hail producing storms just out ahead of the cutoff ...

[Anonymous]

Wow Mike, you're quick ! Yes indeed, this setup will favor the possibility of severe wx and possible hail, especially if sufficient GOM moisture streams ahead of this ULL in this favored time frame being early April.

Whatever happens, this is a heck of a strong blocking pattern for early April anytime !

And, what the hell is a hurricane doing off of Brazil ???????????

[Anonymous]

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/publ ... sattype=ir

[Guest]

Well the nws here has trimmed back temps some and now are going with a rain/snow mix on Wed and Thurs NIGHT and temps in the mid30s but rain for the daytime hours and temps from the 40s to near 50. I expect to see the temps trimmed back some more. Can we say April Fool's snowstorm perhaps for the OV/Lower Lakes and Central Apps on north?????

Today's 12z runs are still going strong with the cut off low in the Lakes/OV a bit farther west and slightly south though from yesterday which is why i say that temps here will be trimmed back even farther IMO.

Anyone notice as well what some of the models are showing at about 10 days or so out??? Say bye bye to spring for a while anyways in the Lakes, OV and NE.

[Colin]

Well what's weird is there is a huge QPF discrepancy between the ETA and GFS. ETA has some QPF amounts nearing an inch, while the GFS for the same time does not have more than .10" anywhere...it was between hours 78-84 I believe on the 18z data.

[Anonymous]

wow ! Another impressive cold trough in the east here Monday - supposed to be 32 F in Columbia,SC at 850 Monday and about 35 F in CHAS. You're talking of sfc highs in the mid and high 50's Monday - well below the means ! Polar 1030mb high north of MN SUN sending in cold air this time of year. Quite impressive !
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... emp_72.gif

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... emp_96.gif

check out the -15C air in PA Monday and the very impressive 980 mb low in ME !