For DFW area Today and Tomorrow-

[Suzi Q]

FXUS64 KFWD 031019
AFDFTW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
420 AM CST WED MAR 3 2004

A COMPLICATED FORECAST IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...AS ANOTHER POWERFUL UPPER LOW MOVES EAST TOWARD TEXAS. KFWS 88D SHOWING RAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...BUT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TODAY. THE MAIN COMPLICATING FACTOR FOR THIS FORECAST IS THE FUTURE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT...AND THE IMPACTS THAT ITS LOCATION WILL HAVE ON PRECIP COVERAGE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND
FLOODING. SURFACE OBS FROM 09Z SUGGEST THAT THE TRUE WARM FRONT IS STILL SOUTH OF THE KFWD CWFA...DESPITE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT IT SHOULD BE WELL INTO SOUTHERN OK ATTM. DIABATIC EFFECTS FROM EVAPORATIVE COOLING HAVE LIKELY OFFSET PRESSURE FALLS DUE TO WARM ADVECTION...AND EFFECTIVELY HALTED NWD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT.

A POTENTIAL MADDOX SYNOPTIC-TYPE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT APPEARS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH STRONG/SUSTAINED ADVECTION OF RICH GULF MOISTURE /850 MB DEWPOINTS OF 10-12C/ INTO A LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY THAT IS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WILL PRIMARILY OCCUR ACROSS OK...BUT WE FEEL THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL.
THUS...WE HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THIS AREA WOULD ALSO EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING SHOULD THE WARM FRONT STALL ACROSS TEXAS. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...AS STRONG SHEAR WILL EXIST ALONG WITH ENHANCED CAPE FOR PARCELS LIFTED FROM 850 MB. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WIND/ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SFC-BASED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS SFC-BASED CAPE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH 800-1200 J/KG. THE GREATER THREAT FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL BE ON THURSDAY...AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE TEX PANHANDLE REGION...ALLOWING HEIGHT FALLS/STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SPREAD INTO AREA OF INCREASING DIFFLUENCE/VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.

[yoda]

SPC has your area in the slight risk today and tomorrow, and moderate risk tomrrow to your northeast some... will be a very interesting day for severe weather this afternoon and tomorrow...