***CURRENT WATCHES/WARNINGS/STORMS/REPORTS IN THE US***
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Stormsfury
- Category 5
- Posts: 10549
- Age: 53
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
- Location: Summerville, SC
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wx247
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 14279
- Age: 41
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 10:35 pm
- Location: Monett, Missouri
- Contact:
Thanks Stormsfury. Yes...they are. I just moved my car into the garage a few minutes ago. Hail looks likely! I will probably be off for a little bit while the storms move through, but will be back on to discuss damage info.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
ARC103-131130-
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CST THU MAR 13 2003
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
OUACHITA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
* UNTIL 530 AM CST
* AT 458 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER READER...OR ABOUT 17 MILES EAST OF
PRESCOTT...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
TATES BLUFF AROUND 515 AM CST
AMY AROUND 520 AM CST
&&
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS STORM IS DIME SIZE HAIL OR LARGER. THE HAIL
MAY CAUSE SOME VEHICLE OR ROOF DAMAGE. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...GO INDOORS
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.
REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN LITTLE ROCK.
ARC103-131130-
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CST THU MAR 13 2003
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
OUACHITA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
* UNTIL 530 AM CST
* AT 458 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER READER...OR ABOUT 17 MILES EAST OF
PRESCOTT...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
TATES BLUFF AROUND 515 AM CST
AMY AROUND 520 AM CST
&&
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS STORM IS DIME SIZE HAIL OR LARGER. THE HAIL
MAY CAUSE SOME VEHICLE OR ROOF DAMAGE. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...GO INDOORS
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.
REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN LITTLE ROCK.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 SSW PSX 10 NE SAT 40 SSE BWD 15 E MWL 20 S DUA 30 SW PGO HOT
30 SSE PBF 25 N HEZ 40 ESE MCB 30 S MOB.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW P07 35 SSW MAF
30 NNW BGS 65 SW SPS 10 W ADM 25 E MKO 35 SSE TBN 35 N SLO
20 ESE LAF 40 NNW DAY 20 WNW ZZV 25 SSW MRB 20 E SBY.
...SERN TX/LOWER MS VALLEY...
BROKEN SQUALL LINE HAS EVOLVED AHEAD OF UPPER SHORTWAVE LATE THIS
EVENING AND EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MO...SWWD INTO CENTRAL OK.
REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE ARKLATX REGION BY
MORNING AND MOST LIKELY WILL BE SUB-SEVERE IN NATURE. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A PIECE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SSEWD INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY
WEAK UPPER FLOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
DURING THE PERIOD.
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ACROSS ERN TX AND LA IS QUITE MOIST WITH
SFC DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. LATEST THINKING IS THAT
REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL FORCE A WIND SHIFT
RADIALLY OUTWARD ACROSS NERN TX/SRN AR/NRN LA WHILE MAIN SYNOPTIC
FRONT SETTLES SWD BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO A POSITION FROM CENTRAL
TX...NRN LA...CENTRAL MS. VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES BENEATH
THE UPPER TROUGH...H5 TO MINUS 18 C...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN TX
WHERE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. OLD OUTFLOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON.
SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR MULTI-CELL STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL. RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING COMPLICATES TIMING/PLACEMENT OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
...FL...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES WITH ASSOCIATED CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SPEED OF THIS FEATURE SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
SPREAD INTO SRN GA/FL PANHANDLE BY BEGINNING OF PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
TIMING IS POOR FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION...STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FL BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON WHERE SFC-BASED CAPE MAY EXCEED 3000 J/KG WITHIN A REGION
OF MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR...SFC-6KM ON THE ORDER OF 35-40KT. LOW
LEVEL FOCUS WILL PROVE WEAK...BUT POSSIBILY SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL. THIS REGION
MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IF CONFIDENCE IN AREAL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION INCREASES.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 SSW PSX 10 NE SAT 40 SSE BWD 15 E MWL 20 S DUA 30 SW PGO HOT
30 SSE PBF 25 N HEZ 40 ESE MCB 30 S MOB.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW P07 35 SSW MAF
30 NNW BGS 65 SW SPS 10 W ADM 25 E MKO 35 SSE TBN 35 N SLO
20 ESE LAF 40 NNW DAY 20 WNW ZZV 25 SSW MRB 20 E SBY.
...SERN TX/LOWER MS VALLEY...
BROKEN SQUALL LINE HAS EVOLVED AHEAD OF UPPER SHORTWAVE LATE THIS
EVENING AND EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MO...SWWD INTO CENTRAL OK.
REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE ARKLATX REGION BY
MORNING AND MOST LIKELY WILL BE SUB-SEVERE IN NATURE. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A PIECE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SSEWD INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY
WEAK UPPER FLOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
DURING THE PERIOD.
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ACROSS ERN TX AND LA IS QUITE MOIST WITH
SFC DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. LATEST THINKING IS THAT
REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL FORCE A WIND SHIFT
RADIALLY OUTWARD ACROSS NERN TX/SRN AR/NRN LA WHILE MAIN SYNOPTIC
FRONT SETTLES SWD BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO A POSITION FROM CENTRAL
TX...NRN LA...CENTRAL MS. VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES BENEATH
THE UPPER TROUGH...H5 TO MINUS 18 C...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN TX
WHERE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. OLD OUTFLOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON.
SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR MULTI-CELL STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL. RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING COMPLICATES TIMING/PLACEMENT OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
...FL...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES WITH ASSOCIATED CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SPEED OF THIS FEATURE SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
SPREAD INTO SRN GA/FL PANHANDLE BY BEGINNING OF PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
TIMING IS POOR FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION...STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FL BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON WHERE SFC-BASED CAPE MAY EXCEED 3000 J/KG WITHIN A REGION
OF MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR...SFC-6KM ON THE ORDER OF 35-40KT. LOW
LEVEL FOCUS WILL PROVE WEAK...BUT POSSIBILY SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL. THIS REGION
MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IF CONFIDENCE IN AREAL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION INCREASES.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 S 7R4 30 ESE MCB 35 W SEM 30 WNW AUO 30 ESE CSG 35 ENE ABY
30 SW AYS 45 SSE JAX.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW GLS 40 SSE LFK
30 NW ESF 40 NNE JAN 30 SSE HSV 25 ENE RMG 35 SSW AGS 25 SSE SAV.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE 3HT
45 ESE BIL 25 NNE RWL 50 SE VEL 40 SE ELY 55 E U31 30 NNE RNO
65 SSW BNO 30 W S80 30 NW MSO 15 NNE 3HT.
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WRN STATES ON DAY 2 AS A
THE NOSE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC JET /150+ KT/ MOVES INTO
SRN CA/SRN AZ. THIS WILL RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM SPLIT FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY ERN STATES. THE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH...
CURRENTLY OVER ERN KS PER WV IMAGERY...WILL BECOME TEMPORARILY CUT-
OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND WEAKEN ON FRIDAY...AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY EWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. MEANWHILE...A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK WITHIN THE SWLY NRN STREAM FROM NRN
CA/OR COAST TO THE CENTRAL-NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z
SATURDAY...INDUCING DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE PLAINS STATES.
...GULF COAST STATES...
00Z ETAKF/ETA/GFS AGREE THAT A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL MOVE EWD
WITH THE CUT-OFF UPPER TROUGH...BUT DIFFER IN STRENGTH/POSITION.
THE ETAKF IS THE STRONGEST /AROUND 40 KT/ AND FARTHEST NORTH FROM
SRN LA TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO GA/NRN FL...WHILE THE ETA/GFS
ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND KEEP THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE
NRN GULF INTO SRN GA/NRN FL.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE WAVE IS PROGGED OVER ERN MS/WRN AL
AT 12Z FRIDAY WITH A BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD TO CENTRAL/SRN GA...
WHILE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SWWD INTO SRN LA. THESE
SURFACE FEATURES SHOULD MOVE EWD DURING THE DAY. THE WARM SECTOR
AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S. WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES RANGING FROM 6.5 TO 7
C/KM ASSOCIATED WITH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES...INSTABILITY
SHOULD BECOME MODERATE BY AFTERNOON FROM SERN LA EWD TO SRN GA.
MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD OVER AL INTO GA...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON FROM SERN LA INTO AL/FL PANHANDLE. CONFIDENCE IN THE
STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LOW BASED ON THE MODELS DIFFERING
IN STRENGTH/POSITION OF MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX. HOWEVER...MOST MODELS
SUGGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES IN THE FORM OF MULTI-CELLS
WITH THE ETAKF THE STRONGEST AND SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS.
...CENTRAL/ERN FL PENINSULA...
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE FL PENINSULA WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ON FRIDAY. PREVAILING ELY SURFACE WINDS WITH 25-30 KT OF WSWLY 500
MB WINDS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE...AND
ACTIVITY THEN SPREADING EWD TO THE COAST. GIVEN MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STORMS SHOULD BECOME
SEVERE.
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 S 7R4 30 ESE MCB 35 W SEM 30 WNW AUO 30 ESE CSG 35 ENE ABY
30 SW AYS 45 SSE JAX.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW GLS 40 SSE LFK
30 NW ESF 40 NNE JAN 30 SSE HSV 25 ENE RMG 35 SSW AGS 25 SSE SAV.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE 3HT
45 ESE BIL 25 NNE RWL 50 SE VEL 40 SE ELY 55 E U31 30 NNE RNO
65 SSW BNO 30 W S80 30 NW MSO 15 NNE 3HT.
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WRN STATES ON DAY 2 AS A
THE NOSE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC JET /150+ KT/ MOVES INTO
SRN CA/SRN AZ. THIS WILL RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM SPLIT FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY ERN STATES. THE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH...
CURRENTLY OVER ERN KS PER WV IMAGERY...WILL BECOME TEMPORARILY CUT-
OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND WEAKEN ON FRIDAY...AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY EWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. MEANWHILE...A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK WITHIN THE SWLY NRN STREAM FROM NRN
CA/OR COAST TO THE CENTRAL-NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z
SATURDAY...INDUCING DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE PLAINS STATES.
...GULF COAST STATES...
00Z ETAKF/ETA/GFS AGREE THAT A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL MOVE EWD
WITH THE CUT-OFF UPPER TROUGH...BUT DIFFER IN STRENGTH/POSITION.
THE ETAKF IS THE STRONGEST /AROUND 40 KT/ AND FARTHEST NORTH FROM
SRN LA TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO GA/NRN FL...WHILE THE ETA/GFS
ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND KEEP THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE
NRN GULF INTO SRN GA/NRN FL.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE WAVE IS PROGGED OVER ERN MS/WRN AL
AT 12Z FRIDAY WITH A BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD TO CENTRAL/SRN GA...
WHILE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SWWD INTO SRN LA. THESE
SURFACE FEATURES SHOULD MOVE EWD DURING THE DAY. THE WARM SECTOR
AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S. WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES RANGING FROM 6.5 TO 7
C/KM ASSOCIATED WITH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES...INSTABILITY
SHOULD BECOME MODERATE BY AFTERNOON FROM SERN LA EWD TO SRN GA.
MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD OVER AL INTO GA...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON FROM SERN LA INTO AL/FL PANHANDLE. CONFIDENCE IN THE
STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LOW BASED ON THE MODELS DIFFERING
IN STRENGTH/POSITION OF MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX. HOWEVER...MOST MODELS
SUGGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES IN THE FORM OF MULTI-CELLS
WITH THE ETAKF THE STRONGEST AND SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS.
...CENTRAL/ERN FL PENINSULA...
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE FL PENINSULA WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ON FRIDAY. PREVAILING ELY SURFACE WINDS WITH 25-30 KT OF WSWLY 500
MB WINDS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE...AND
ACTIVITY THEN SPREADING EWD TO THE COAST. GIVEN MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STORMS SHOULD BECOME
SEVERE.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS.
VALID 151200-161200
LESS THAN A SLIGHT RISK.
COLD VORTEX WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD SENDING SEVERAL MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ONE OF THE PREVIOUS DAY
TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...WHILE ANOTHER DEVELOPS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER NRN AL/NRN
GA AND ERN TN.
...MID MS VALLEY...
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NEWD FROM SERN NEB INTO CENTRAL WI DURING THE
PERIOD. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH IA AND EXTEND SWD
THROUGH CENTRAL WI THEN SWWD INTO E CENTRAL KS. BY 12Z SUNDAY...
MODELS INDICATE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH LIFTED INDICES BETWEEN -4 AND -6. THUNDERSTORMS
COULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND PRODUCE MOSTLY SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS.
...SRN HI PLAINS...
LOW LEVEL JET WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS W
TX INCREASING TO 40-45 KT NWD THRU THE REGION INTO SWRN OK. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS DIVERGENT ACROSS THE AREA AS EXIT REGION OF 90-110 KT
JET EXTENDS FROM SRN CA INTO THE BIG BEND REGION OF SWRN TX.
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL VORTICITY MAX THAT FORMS OVER THE REGION INTO WRN OK BY
16/12Z. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM IN VICINITY OF LOW LEVEL JET
AXIS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS.
VALID 151200-161200
LESS THAN A SLIGHT RISK.
COLD VORTEX WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD SENDING SEVERAL MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ONE OF THE PREVIOUS DAY
TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...WHILE ANOTHER DEVELOPS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER NRN AL/NRN
GA AND ERN TN.
...MID MS VALLEY...
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NEWD FROM SERN NEB INTO CENTRAL WI DURING THE
PERIOD. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH IA AND EXTEND SWD
THROUGH CENTRAL WI THEN SWWD INTO E CENTRAL KS. BY 12Z SUNDAY...
MODELS INDICATE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH LIFTED INDICES BETWEEN -4 AND -6. THUNDERSTORMS
COULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND PRODUCE MOSTLY SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS.
...SRN HI PLAINS...
LOW LEVEL JET WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS W
TX INCREASING TO 40-45 KT NWD THRU THE REGION INTO SWRN OK. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS DIVERGENT ACROSS THE AREA AS EXIT REGION OF 90-110 KT
JET EXTENDS FROM SRN CA INTO THE BIG BEND REGION OF SWRN TX.
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL VORTICITY MAX THAT FORMS OVER THE REGION INTO WRN OK BY
16/12Z. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM IN VICINITY OF LOW LEVEL JET
AXIS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
Hail Reports
Time Size Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1947 75 ASHDOWN LITTLE RIVER AR 3366 9413 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT (SHV)
1950 75 OKEECHOBEE COUNTY OKEECHOBEE FL 2743 8091 MOTORIST ON SR 68 ALONG THE OKEECHOBEE AND ST LUCIE COUNTY LINE. (MLB)
1950 75 ST LUCIE COUNTY ST LUCIE FL 2766 8046 SAME REPORT AS OKEECHOBEE (MLB)
2030 100 7 N COLFAX GRANT LA 3163 9271 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT (SHV)
2110 275 PINEVILLE RAPIDES LA 3131 9243 BASEBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY RAPIDES 911. (LCH)
2115 100 HOBE SOUND MARTIN FL 2706 8013 WEST PALM BEACH TV CHANNEL 12 REPORT. (MLB)
2136 175 PINEVILLE RAPIDES LA 3131 9243 GOLFBALL HAIL IN PINEVILLE REPORTED BY PUBLIC (LCH)
2220 75 2 W HOLDEN LIVINGSTON LA 3049 9070 REPORTED BY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT (NEW)
2233 75 5 SSE WESTMORELAND POTTAWATOMIE KS 3932 9637 (TOP)
2240 100 2 N TICKFAW TANGIPAHOA LA 3059 9048 REPORTED BY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT (NEW)
2300 200 4 S CLOUTIERVILLE NATCHITOCHES LA 3148 9293 REPORTED BY GENERAL PUBLIC (SHV)
2310 175 8 S JONESVILLE CATAHOULA LA 3148 9183 PUBLIC REPORT (JAN)
2312 100 2 S VALLEY FALLS JEFFERSON KS 3929 9546 (TOP)
2315 175 MONTEREY CONCORDIA LA 3146 9171 PUBLIC REPORT (JAN)
2325 88 5 N COLFAX GRANT LA 3159 9271 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT (SHV)
2333 75 5 SSE WESTMORELAND POTTAWATOMIE KS 3932 9637 (TOP)
2345 75 10 NW MARKSVILLE AVOYELLES LA 3125 9220 REPORTED BY PUBLIC (LCH)
2350 175 6 SE WINNFIELD WINN LA 3184 9255 FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT (SHV)
2350 175 HAMILTON GREENWOOD KS 3798 9616 REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC. (ICT)
2356 125 KENTWOOD TANGIPAHOA LA 3093 9051 REPORTED BY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT (NEW)
0006 175 POINTE COUPEE PARISH POINTE COUPEE LA 3071 9163 REPORTED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT (NEW)
0006 175 VIRGIL GREENWOOD KS 3798 9601 REPORTED BY CO-OP OBSERVER (ICT)
0012 100 2 S VALLEY FALLS JEFFERSON KS 3929 9546 (TOP)
0022 100 HOWARD ELK KS 3746 9626 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT (ICT)
0030 175 10 NW YATES CENTER WOODSON KS 3800 9588 PUBLIC REPORT (ICT)
0033 88 NEOSHO RAPIDS LYON KS 3836 9598 (TOP)
0035 75 2 W HOYT JACKSON KS 3924 9574 (TOP)
0040 100 ELLISVILLE JONES MS 3159 8920 REPORTED BY ELLISVILLE POLICE DEPARTMENT. (JAN)
0040 75 2 S GRIDLEY COFFEY KS 3806 9588 (TOP)
0048 175 3 NW YATES CENTER WOODSON KS 3791 9577 REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER (ICT)
0053 100 1 E ESKRIDGE WABAUNSEE KS 3884 9607 (TOP)
0100 100 PERRY JEFFERSON KS 3908 9539 (TOP)
0100 100 SPRINGDALE LEAVENWORTH KS 3925 9511 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (MCI)
0105 175 2 S YATES CENTER WOODSON KS 3784 9573 REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER (ICT)
0113 100 20 NE HOWARD ELK KS 3770 9596 REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER (ICT)
0115 100 WILKINSON WILKINSON MS 3120 9131 REPORTED BY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT (NEW)
0115 125 NEW ALBANY WILSON KS 3756 9593 REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER (ICT)
0115 150 6 N LYNDON OSAGE KS 3871 9568 (TOP)
0115 125 5 NW LAWRENCE DOUGLAS KS 3902 9530 (TOP)
0120 100 14 SE YATES CENTER WOODSON KS 3771 9552 REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER (ICT)
0125 175 6 SW LANSING LEAVENWORTH KS 3917 9499 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. HAIL COVERING THE GROUND. REPORT AT 175TH AND DEMPSEY. (MCI)
0136 75 7 S LAWRENCE DOUGLAS KS 3884 9523 (TOP)
0140 175 FREDONIA WILSON KS 3753 9581 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT (ICT)
0140 75 PLATTE CITY PLATTE MO 3936 9478 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (MCI)
0142 75 PARKVILLE PLATTE MO 3919 9470 REPORTED BY HAM RADIO OPERATOR. (MCI)
0148 150 MONTEREY CONCORDIA LA 3146 9171 PUBLIC REPORT OF HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF WALNUTS FALLING IN TOWN (JAN)
0150 75 BONNER SPGS WYANDOTTE KS 3905 9488 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (MCI)
0157 100 ALTOONA WILSON KS 3751 9566 REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER (ICT)
0200 175 SHAWNEE JOHNSON KS 3901 9471 REPORTED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. (MCI)
0201 175 HUMBOLDT ALLEN KS 3781 9543 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT (ICT)
0207 100 LIBERTY CLAY MO 3925 9443 REPORTED BY HAM RADIO OPERATOR. (MCI)
0225 100 5 NW NEODESHA WILSON KS 3749 9575 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT (ICT)
0230 100 MOREHEAD NEOSHO KS 3738 9551 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT (ICT)
0230 88 3 W KINGSVILLE JOHNSON MO 3874 9414 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON THE WESTERN JOHNSON COUNTY MISSOURI LINE ON HIGHWAY 50. (MCI)
0234 75 10 W INDEPENDENCE MONTGOMERY KS 3723 9592 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT (ICT)
0235 100 9 S LIBERTY AMITE MS 3118 9080 COVERING THE GROUND REPORTED BY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT (NEW)
0242 100 GRAIN VLY JACKSON MO 3901 9420 REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER. (MCI)
0243 100 FELIXVILLE EAST FELICIANA LA 3093 9086 COVERING THE GROUND (NEW)
0245 75 14 NE INDEPENDENCE MONTGOMERY KS 3739 9550 REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER (ICT)
0245 75 5 SW OSAWATOMIE MIAMI KS 3844 9500 (MCI)
0254 100 GREENWOOD JACKSON MO 3884 9435 REPORTED BY OFF-DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE. (MCI)
0255 175 2 S HIATTVILLE BOURBON KS 3768 9488 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (SGF)
0255 175 1 N HEPLER CRAWFORD KS 3768 9496 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (SGF)
0255 175 CENTERVIEW JOHNSON MO 3875 9385 REPORTED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. (MCI)
0255 88 3 E KNOB NOSTER JOHNSON MO 3876 9350 REPORTED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. (MCI)
0255 75 CARROLLTON CARROLL MO 3936 9350 REPORTED BY FIRE AND RESCUE. (MCI)
0305 88 EDMOND OKLAHOMA OK 3564 9748 AMATEUR RADIO SPOTTER (OKC)
0305 175 6 S MERIDIAN LOGAN OK 3593 9741 PUBLIC REPORT (OKC)
0310 100 HARRISONVILLE CASS MO 3864 9435 REPORTED BY HAM RADIO OPERATOR. (MCI)
0310 75 SWEET SPGS SALINE MO 3896 9341 REPORTED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. (MCI)
0316 175 BUTLER BATES MO 3825 9433 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (MCI)
0320 125 3 SE YUKON CANADIAN OK 3546 9770 SPOTTER REPORT (OKC)
0320 100 3 SW LUTHER OKLAHOMA OK 3563 9724 LINCOLN CO EM (OKC)
0322 100 3 SW WELLSTON LINCOLN OK 3564 9711 LINCOLN CO EM (OKC)
0327 100 5 S LONGWOOD PETTIS MO 3881 9318 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (MCI)
0328 75 2 E MC CUNE CRAWFORD KS 3734 9497 (SGF)
0330 175 GREENSBURG ST HELENA LA 3081 9066 REPORTED BY PUBLIC (NEW)
0330 75 4 SE INDEPENDENCE MONTGOMERY KS 3718 9565 REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER (ICT)
0330 100 3 W ALTAMONT LABETTE KS 3719 9536 REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER (ICT)
0340 88 10 S KENTWOOD TANGIPAHOA LA 3076 9051 REPORTED BY STATE POLICE (NEW)
0340 100 BRONAUGH VERNON MO 3768 9448 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (SGF)
0342 100 1 SW KENDRICK LINCOLN OK 3577 9679 LINCOLN CO EM (OKC)
0344 100 JONES OKLAHOMA OK 3556 9728 AMATEUR RADIO SPOTTER (OKC)
0345 75 5 NW LAMAR BARTON MO 3755 9435 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (SGF)
0345 88 MOBERLY RANDOLPH MO 3941 9243 REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER. (MCI)
0348 75 MUSTANG CANADIAN OK 3538 9771 AMATEUR RADIO SPOTTER (OKC)
0350 75 BARRY PIKE IL 3968 9104 REPORTED BY PIKE COUNTY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT. (STL)
0351 100 1 W OSWEGO LABETTE KS 3716 9512 LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED 60 MPH WINDS (ICT)
0351 75 MONTROSE HENRY MO 3826 9398 REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER. (MCI)
0355 75 PITTSBURG CRAWFORD KS 3741 9470 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (SGF)
0357 100 2 S BRONAUGH VERNON MO 3764 9448 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (SGF)
0358 75 GRIGGSVILLE PIKE IL 3969 9073 REPORTED BY PIKE COUNTY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT. (STL)
0400 100 MILFAY CREEK OK 3575 9656 REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER (TUL)
0400 88 6 NE COFFEYVILLE MONTGOMERY KS 3710 9554 REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER (ICT)
0405 75 2 W NASHVILLE BARTON MO 3738 9454 REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER. (SGF)
0406 88 3 NW MOORE CLEVELAND OK 3536 9754 OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE (OKC)
0408 100 COLUMBUS CHEROKEE KS 3716 9483 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (SGF)
0410 175 3 S OSWEGO LABETTE KS 3711 9510 REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER, EOC. (ICT)
0420 88 TANGIPAHOA TANGIPAHOA LA 3086 9050 REPORTED BY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT (NEW)
0420 100 EDNA LABETTE KS 3705 9536 REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER (ICT)
0420 100 CARL JCT JASPER MO 3718 9456 REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER. (SGF)
0420 88 1 S NASHVILLE BARTON MO 3736 9450 REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER. (SGF)
0421 75 POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY POTTAWATOMIE OK 3519 9693 AMATEUR RADIO SPOTTER (OKC)
0430 75 NEWCASTLE MCCLAIN OK 3525 9760 NEWCASTLE PD (OKC)
0430 75 MEEKER LINCOLN OK 3550 9690 MEEKER PD (OKC)
0442 75 LOCKWOOD DADE MO 3738 9396 REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER. (SGF)
0448 88 BAXTER SPGS CHEROKEE KS 3701 9473 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (SGF)
0450 75 NORMAN CLEVELAND OK 3521 9745 OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE (OKC)
0450 100 WRIGHT CITY WARREN MO 3883 9101 REPORTED BY SEVERE WEATHER SPOTTER. POWER OUT IN PART OF CITY DUE TO LIGHTNING STRIKE TO POWER POLE. (STL)
0455 75 JOPLIN JASPER MO 3708 9451 REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER. (SGF)
0500 75 CHICKASHA GRADY OK 3504 9795 CO SHERIFF (OKC)
0500 75 3 N STOTTS CITY LAWRENCE MO 3715 9396 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (SGF)
0503 100 6 N APACHE CADDO OK 3498 9836 AMATEUR RADIO SPOTTER (OKC)
0520 100 5 SW NEOSHO NEWTON MO 3680 9444 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (SGF)
0520 75 IBERIA MILLER MO 3809 9231 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (SGF)
0520 88 OSAGE BEACH CAMDEN MO 3823 9261 REPORTED BY PUBLIC. (SGF)
0523 88 LAKE ELLSWORTH COMANCHE OK 3483 9835 AMATEUR RADIO SPOTTER (OKC)
0530 75 SEMINOLE SEMINOLE OK 3523 9668 COUNTY SHERIFF (OKC)
0545 75 LEXINGTON CLEVELAND OK 3501 9733 LEXINGTON PD (OKC)
0545 175 3 SW SPRINGFIELD GREENE MO 3716 9334 REPORTED BY PUBLIC. (SGF)
0545 100 BRINKTOWN MARIES MO 3813 9208 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (SGF)
0550 88 DIXON PULASKI MO 3800 9210 REPORTED BY PUBLIC. (SGF)
0555 175 SENECA NEWTON MO 3685 9460 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (SGF)
0558 88 BYNG PONTOTOC OK 3486 9665 AMATEUR RADIO SPOTTER (OKC)
0623 100 5 N SHELL KNOB BARRY MO 3671 9363 REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER. (SGF)
0623 100 3 W CAPE FAIR STONE MO 3673 9357 REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER. (SGF)
0623 175 BUNKER HILL MACOUPIN IL 3903 8995 REPORTED BY SEVERE WEATHER SPOTTER. (STL)
0630 88 SENECA NEWTON MO 3685 9460 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (SGF)
0641 75 BUNKER HILL MACOUPIN IL 3903 8995 REPORTED BY SEVERE WEATHER SPOTTER. (STL)
0645 75 3 S ROLLA PHELPS MO 3790 9176 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (SGF)
0710 75 CASSVILLE BARRY MO 3668 9386 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (SGF)
0735 100 MULBERRY CRAWFORD AR 3550 9404 REPORTED BY AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR (TUL)
0825 75 FORT SMITH SEBASTIAN AR 3538 9441 REPORTED BY AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR (TUL)
0835 75 OZARK FRANKLIN AR 3550 9383 EPORTED BY AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR (TUL)
0915 75 MURPHYSBORO JACKSON IL 3776 8933 MOSTLY PEA SIZE...WITH SOME HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE. (PAH)
0952 175 CHARLESTON MISSISSIPPI MO 3691 8933 (PAH)
Wind Reports
Time Speed Location County State Lat Lon Comments
0450 70 CALIFORNIA MONITEAU MO 3863 9256 REPORTED BY MONITEAU COUNTY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT. (STL)
0528 UNK JEFFERSON CITY COLE MO 3858 9218 TREES DOWNED IN CITY AND NW COLE COUNTY. REPORTED BY COLE COUNTY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT. (STL)
0550 UNK 1 N SPRINGFIELD GREENE MO 3721 9330 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (SGF)
0600 UNK 8 SE BUFFALO DALLAS MO 3755 9298 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (SGF)
0645 UNK UNION FRANKLIN MO 3845 9105 POWER LINES DOWNED. REPORTED BY FRANKLIN COUNTY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT. (STL)
0650 UNK CENTERTOWN COLE MO 3861 9241 ROOF BLOWN OFF MOBILE HOME. REPORTED BY COLE COUNTY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT. (STL)
0730 UNK CENTERVILLE REYNOLDS MO 3743 9096 TREES DOWNED. REPORTED BY REYNOLDS COUNTY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT. (STL)
Time Size Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1947 75 ASHDOWN LITTLE RIVER AR 3366 9413 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT (SHV)
1950 75 OKEECHOBEE COUNTY OKEECHOBEE FL 2743 8091 MOTORIST ON SR 68 ALONG THE OKEECHOBEE AND ST LUCIE COUNTY LINE. (MLB)
1950 75 ST LUCIE COUNTY ST LUCIE FL 2766 8046 SAME REPORT AS OKEECHOBEE (MLB)
2030 100 7 N COLFAX GRANT LA 3163 9271 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT (SHV)
2110 275 PINEVILLE RAPIDES LA 3131 9243 BASEBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY RAPIDES 911. (LCH)
2115 100 HOBE SOUND MARTIN FL 2706 8013 WEST PALM BEACH TV CHANNEL 12 REPORT. (MLB)
2136 175 PINEVILLE RAPIDES LA 3131 9243 GOLFBALL HAIL IN PINEVILLE REPORTED BY PUBLIC (LCH)
2220 75 2 W HOLDEN LIVINGSTON LA 3049 9070 REPORTED BY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT (NEW)
2233 75 5 SSE WESTMORELAND POTTAWATOMIE KS 3932 9637 (TOP)
2240 100 2 N TICKFAW TANGIPAHOA LA 3059 9048 REPORTED BY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT (NEW)
2300 200 4 S CLOUTIERVILLE NATCHITOCHES LA 3148 9293 REPORTED BY GENERAL PUBLIC (SHV)
2310 175 8 S JONESVILLE CATAHOULA LA 3148 9183 PUBLIC REPORT (JAN)
2312 100 2 S VALLEY FALLS JEFFERSON KS 3929 9546 (TOP)
2315 175 MONTEREY CONCORDIA LA 3146 9171 PUBLIC REPORT (JAN)
2325 88 5 N COLFAX GRANT LA 3159 9271 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT (SHV)
2333 75 5 SSE WESTMORELAND POTTAWATOMIE KS 3932 9637 (TOP)
2345 75 10 NW MARKSVILLE AVOYELLES LA 3125 9220 REPORTED BY PUBLIC (LCH)
2350 175 6 SE WINNFIELD WINN LA 3184 9255 FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT (SHV)
2350 175 HAMILTON GREENWOOD KS 3798 9616 REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC. (ICT)
2356 125 KENTWOOD TANGIPAHOA LA 3093 9051 REPORTED BY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT (NEW)
0006 175 POINTE COUPEE PARISH POINTE COUPEE LA 3071 9163 REPORTED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT (NEW)
0006 175 VIRGIL GREENWOOD KS 3798 9601 REPORTED BY CO-OP OBSERVER (ICT)
0012 100 2 S VALLEY FALLS JEFFERSON KS 3929 9546 (TOP)
0022 100 HOWARD ELK KS 3746 9626 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT (ICT)
0030 175 10 NW YATES CENTER WOODSON KS 3800 9588 PUBLIC REPORT (ICT)
0033 88 NEOSHO RAPIDS LYON KS 3836 9598 (TOP)
0035 75 2 W HOYT JACKSON KS 3924 9574 (TOP)
0040 100 ELLISVILLE JONES MS 3159 8920 REPORTED BY ELLISVILLE POLICE DEPARTMENT. (JAN)
0040 75 2 S GRIDLEY COFFEY KS 3806 9588 (TOP)
0048 175 3 NW YATES CENTER WOODSON KS 3791 9577 REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER (ICT)
0053 100 1 E ESKRIDGE WABAUNSEE KS 3884 9607 (TOP)
0100 100 PERRY JEFFERSON KS 3908 9539 (TOP)
0100 100 SPRINGDALE LEAVENWORTH KS 3925 9511 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (MCI)
0105 175 2 S YATES CENTER WOODSON KS 3784 9573 REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER (ICT)
0113 100 20 NE HOWARD ELK KS 3770 9596 REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER (ICT)
0115 100 WILKINSON WILKINSON MS 3120 9131 REPORTED BY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT (NEW)
0115 125 NEW ALBANY WILSON KS 3756 9593 REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER (ICT)
0115 150 6 N LYNDON OSAGE KS 3871 9568 (TOP)
0115 125 5 NW LAWRENCE DOUGLAS KS 3902 9530 (TOP)
0120 100 14 SE YATES CENTER WOODSON KS 3771 9552 REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER (ICT)
0125 175 6 SW LANSING LEAVENWORTH KS 3917 9499 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. HAIL COVERING THE GROUND. REPORT AT 175TH AND DEMPSEY. (MCI)
0136 75 7 S LAWRENCE DOUGLAS KS 3884 9523 (TOP)
0140 175 FREDONIA WILSON KS 3753 9581 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT (ICT)
0140 75 PLATTE CITY PLATTE MO 3936 9478 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (MCI)
0142 75 PARKVILLE PLATTE MO 3919 9470 REPORTED BY HAM RADIO OPERATOR. (MCI)
0148 150 MONTEREY CONCORDIA LA 3146 9171 PUBLIC REPORT OF HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF WALNUTS FALLING IN TOWN (JAN)
0150 75 BONNER SPGS WYANDOTTE KS 3905 9488 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (MCI)
0157 100 ALTOONA WILSON KS 3751 9566 REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER (ICT)
0200 175 SHAWNEE JOHNSON KS 3901 9471 REPORTED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. (MCI)
0201 175 HUMBOLDT ALLEN KS 3781 9543 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT (ICT)
0207 100 LIBERTY CLAY MO 3925 9443 REPORTED BY HAM RADIO OPERATOR. (MCI)
0225 100 5 NW NEODESHA WILSON KS 3749 9575 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT (ICT)
0230 100 MOREHEAD NEOSHO KS 3738 9551 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT (ICT)
0230 88 3 W KINGSVILLE JOHNSON MO 3874 9414 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON THE WESTERN JOHNSON COUNTY MISSOURI LINE ON HIGHWAY 50. (MCI)
0234 75 10 W INDEPENDENCE MONTGOMERY KS 3723 9592 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT (ICT)
0235 100 9 S LIBERTY AMITE MS 3118 9080 COVERING THE GROUND REPORTED BY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT (NEW)
0242 100 GRAIN VLY JACKSON MO 3901 9420 REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER. (MCI)
0243 100 FELIXVILLE EAST FELICIANA LA 3093 9086 COVERING THE GROUND (NEW)
0245 75 14 NE INDEPENDENCE MONTGOMERY KS 3739 9550 REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER (ICT)
0245 75 5 SW OSAWATOMIE MIAMI KS 3844 9500 (MCI)
0254 100 GREENWOOD JACKSON MO 3884 9435 REPORTED BY OFF-DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE. (MCI)
0255 175 2 S HIATTVILLE BOURBON KS 3768 9488 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (SGF)
0255 175 1 N HEPLER CRAWFORD KS 3768 9496 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (SGF)
0255 175 CENTERVIEW JOHNSON MO 3875 9385 REPORTED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. (MCI)
0255 88 3 E KNOB NOSTER JOHNSON MO 3876 9350 REPORTED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. (MCI)
0255 75 CARROLLTON CARROLL MO 3936 9350 REPORTED BY FIRE AND RESCUE. (MCI)
0305 88 EDMOND OKLAHOMA OK 3564 9748 AMATEUR RADIO SPOTTER (OKC)
0305 175 6 S MERIDIAN LOGAN OK 3593 9741 PUBLIC REPORT (OKC)
0310 100 HARRISONVILLE CASS MO 3864 9435 REPORTED BY HAM RADIO OPERATOR. (MCI)
0310 75 SWEET SPGS SALINE MO 3896 9341 REPORTED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. (MCI)
0316 175 BUTLER BATES MO 3825 9433 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (MCI)
0320 125 3 SE YUKON CANADIAN OK 3546 9770 SPOTTER REPORT (OKC)
0320 100 3 SW LUTHER OKLAHOMA OK 3563 9724 LINCOLN CO EM (OKC)
0322 100 3 SW WELLSTON LINCOLN OK 3564 9711 LINCOLN CO EM (OKC)
0327 100 5 S LONGWOOD PETTIS MO 3881 9318 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (MCI)
0328 75 2 E MC CUNE CRAWFORD KS 3734 9497 (SGF)
0330 175 GREENSBURG ST HELENA LA 3081 9066 REPORTED BY PUBLIC (NEW)
0330 75 4 SE INDEPENDENCE MONTGOMERY KS 3718 9565 REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER (ICT)
0330 100 3 W ALTAMONT LABETTE KS 3719 9536 REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER (ICT)
0340 88 10 S KENTWOOD TANGIPAHOA LA 3076 9051 REPORTED BY STATE POLICE (NEW)
0340 100 BRONAUGH VERNON MO 3768 9448 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (SGF)
0342 100 1 SW KENDRICK LINCOLN OK 3577 9679 LINCOLN CO EM (OKC)
0344 100 JONES OKLAHOMA OK 3556 9728 AMATEUR RADIO SPOTTER (OKC)
0345 75 5 NW LAMAR BARTON MO 3755 9435 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (SGF)
0345 88 MOBERLY RANDOLPH MO 3941 9243 REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER. (MCI)
0348 75 MUSTANG CANADIAN OK 3538 9771 AMATEUR RADIO SPOTTER (OKC)
0350 75 BARRY PIKE IL 3968 9104 REPORTED BY PIKE COUNTY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT. (STL)
0351 100 1 W OSWEGO LABETTE KS 3716 9512 LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED 60 MPH WINDS (ICT)
0351 75 MONTROSE HENRY MO 3826 9398 REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER. (MCI)
0355 75 PITTSBURG CRAWFORD KS 3741 9470 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (SGF)
0357 100 2 S BRONAUGH VERNON MO 3764 9448 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (SGF)
0358 75 GRIGGSVILLE PIKE IL 3969 9073 REPORTED BY PIKE COUNTY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT. (STL)
0400 100 MILFAY CREEK OK 3575 9656 REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER (TUL)
0400 88 6 NE COFFEYVILLE MONTGOMERY KS 3710 9554 REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER (ICT)
0405 75 2 W NASHVILLE BARTON MO 3738 9454 REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER. (SGF)
0406 88 3 NW MOORE CLEVELAND OK 3536 9754 OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE (OKC)
0408 100 COLUMBUS CHEROKEE KS 3716 9483 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (SGF)
0410 175 3 S OSWEGO LABETTE KS 3711 9510 REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER, EOC. (ICT)
0420 88 TANGIPAHOA TANGIPAHOA LA 3086 9050 REPORTED BY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT (NEW)
0420 100 EDNA LABETTE KS 3705 9536 REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER (ICT)
0420 100 CARL JCT JASPER MO 3718 9456 REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER. (SGF)
0420 88 1 S NASHVILLE BARTON MO 3736 9450 REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER. (SGF)
0421 75 POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY POTTAWATOMIE OK 3519 9693 AMATEUR RADIO SPOTTER (OKC)
0430 75 NEWCASTLE MCCLAIN OK 3525 9760 NEWCASTLE PD (OKC)
0430 75 MEEKER LINCOLN OK 3550 9690 MEEKER PD (OKC)
0442 75 LOCKWOOD DADE MO 3738 9396 REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER. (SGF)
0448 88 BAXTER SPGS CHEROKEE KS 3701 9473 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (SGF)
0450 75 NORMAN CLEVELAND OK 3521 9745 OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE (OKC)
0450 100 WRIGHT CITY WARREN MO 3883 9101 REPORTED BY SEVERE WEATHER SPOTTER. POWER OUT IN PART OF CITY DUE TO LIGHTNING STRIKE TO POWER POLE. (STL)
0455 75 JOPLIN JASPER MO 3708 9451 REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER. (SGF)
0500 75 CHICKASHA GRADY OK 3504 9795 CO SHERIFF (OKC)
0500 75 3 N STOTTS CITY LAWRENCE MO 3715 9396 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (SGF)
0503 100 6 N APACHE CADDO OK 3498 9836 AMATEUR RADIO SPOTTER (OKC)
0520 100 5 SW NEOSHO NEWTON MO 3680 9444 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (SGF)
0520 75 IBERIA MILLER MO 3809 9231 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (SGF)
0520 88 OSAGE BEACH CAMDEN MO 3823 9261 REPORTED BY PUBLIC. (SGF)
0523 88 LAKE ELLSWORTH COMANCHE OK 3483 9835 AMATEUR RADIO SPOTTER (OKC)
0530 75 SEMINOLE SEMINOLE OK 3523 9668 COUNTY SHERIFF (OKC)
0545 75 LEXINGTON CLEVELAND OK 3501 9733 LEXINGTON PD (OKC)
0545 175 3 SW SPRINGFIELD GREENE MO 3716 9334 REPORTED BY PUBLIC. (SGF)
0545 100 BRINKTOWN MARIES MO 3813 9208 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (SGF)
0550 88 DIXON PULASKI MO 3800 9210 REPORTED BY PUBLIC. (SGF)
0555 175 SENECA NEWTON MO 3685 9460 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (SGF)
0558 88 BYNG PONTOTOC OK 3486 9665 AMATEUR RADIO SPOTTER (OKC)
0623 100 5 N SHELL KNOB BARRY MO 3671 9363 REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER. (SGF)
0623 100 3 W CAPE FAIR STONE MO 3673 9357 REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER. (SGF)
0623 175 BUNKER HILL MACOUPIN IL 3903 8995 REPORTED BY SEVERE WEATHER SPOTTER. (STL)
0630 88 SENECA NEWTON MO 3685 9460 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (SGF)
0641 75 BUNKER HILL MACOUPIN IL 3903 8995 REPORTED BY SEVERE WEATHER SPOTTER. (STL)
0645 75 3 S ROLLA PHELPS MO 3790 9176 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (SGF)
0710 75 CASSVILLE BARRY MO 3668 9386 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (SGF)
0735 100 MULBERRY CRAWFORD AR 3550 9404 REPORTED BY AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR (TUL)
0825 75 FORT SMITH SEBASTIAN AR 3538 9441 REPORTED BY AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR (TUL)
0835 75 OZARK FRANKLIN AR 3550 9383 EPORTED BY AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR (TUL)
0915 75 MURPHYSBORO JACKSON IL 3776 8933 MOSTLY PEA SIZE...WITH SOME HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE. (PAH)
0952 175 CHARLESTON MISSISSIPPI MO 3691 8933 (PAH)
Wind Reports
Time Speed Location County State Lat Lon Comments
0450 70 CALIFORNIA MONITEAU MO 3863 9256 REPORTED BY MONITEAU COUNTY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT. (STL)
0528 UNK JEFFERSON CITY COLE MO 3858 9218 TREES DOWNED IN CITY AND NW COLE COUNTY. REPORTED BY COLE COUNTY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT. (STL)
0550 UNK 1 N SPRINGFIELD GREENE MO 3721 9330 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (SGF)
0600 UNK 8 SE BUFFALO DALLAS MO 3755 9298 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (SGF)
0645 UNK UNION FRANKLIN MO 3845 9105 POWER LINES DOWNED. REPORTED BY FRANKLIN COUNTY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT. (STL)
0650 UNK CENTERTOWN COLE MO 3861 9241 ROOF BLOWN OFF MOBILE HOME. REPORTED BY COLE COUNTY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT. (STL)
0730 UNK CENTERVILLE REYNOLDS MO 3743 9096 TREES DOWNED. REPORTED BY REYNOLDS COUNTY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT. (STL)
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Rob-TheStormChaser
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC019-107-131230-
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
653 AM EST THU MAR 13 2003
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR CLAY AND PUTNAM
COUNTIES UNTIL 730 AM...
AT 653 AM EST LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF BOSTWICK...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF
PALATKA. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THE STORM MOVING NORTH AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE STORM THROUGH 730 AM EST...
BOSTWICK...
GREEN COVE SPRINGS AND PENNEY FARMS...
ASBURY LAKE AND MIDDLEBURG...
AT 648 AM EST LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED DIME SIZE HAIL IN
BOSTWICK.
FLC019-107-131230-
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
653 AM EST THU MAR 13 2003
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR CLAY AND PUTNAM
COUNTIES UNTIL 730 AM...
AT 653 AM EST LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF BOSTWICK...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF
PALATKA. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THE STORM MOVING NORTH AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE STORM THROUGH 730 AM EST...
BOSTWICK...
GREEN COVE SPRINGS AND PENNEY FARMS...
ASBURY LAKE AND MIDDLEBURG...
AT 648 AM EST LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED DIME SIZE HAIL IN
BOSTWICK.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
TORNADO WARNING
FLC109-131315-
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
745 AM EST THU MAR 13 2003
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
ST. JOHNS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA
* UNTIL 815 AM EST
* AT 743 AM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO OVER ST. AUGUSTINE SOUTH...OR ABOUT 3 MILES WEST
OF ST. AUGUSTINE BEACH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE STORM THROUGH 815 AM EST...
ST. AUGUSTINE SOUTH AND ST. AUGUSTINE BEACH...
ST. AUGUSTINE AND VILANO BEACH...
VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...TAKE COVER.
FLC109-131315-
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
745 AM EST THU MAR 13 2003
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
ST. JOHNS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA
* UNTIL 815 AM EST
* AT 743 AM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO OVER ST. AUGUSTINE SOUTH...OR ABOUT 3 MILES WEST
OF ST. AUGUSTINE BEACH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE STORM THROUGH 815 AM EST...
ST. AUGUSTINE SOUTH AND ST. AUGUSTINE BEACH...
ST. AUGUSTINE AND VILANO BEACH...
VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...TAKE COVER.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 38
STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
830 AM CST THU MAR 13 2003
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 830 AM UNTIL 200
PM CST.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES
NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH OF HOUSTON TEXAS TO
45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA.
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...REMNANT OVER OVERNIGHT MCS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
SEWD...WHILE PROPAGATION OF NEW CELLS CONTINUES ON WRN FLANK.
GIVEN AREA THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND ONSET OF DAYTIME
HEATING...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS
DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP SHEAR.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 38
STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
830 AM CST THU MAR 13 2003
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 830 AM UNTIL 200
PM CST.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES
NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH OF HOUSTON TEXAS TO
45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA.
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...REMNANT OVER OVERNIGHT MCS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
SEWD...WHILE PROPAGATION OF NEW CELLS CONTINUES ON WRN FLANK.
GIVEN AREA THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND ONSET OF DAYTIME
HEATING...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS
DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP SHEAR.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0236
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0939 AM CST THU MAR 13 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 131539Z - 131745Z
THE POTENTIAL FOR A DAMAGING WIND EVENT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING. WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.
PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION
OVER AL THIS MORNING AHEAD OF STRONG/SVR SQUALL LINE IN PROGRESS
OVER WRN MS. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR CNTRL/SRN AL FOR LATE
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON INDICATE MLCAPES INCREASING TO
1000-2000 J/KG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES. TSTM ACTIVITY
OVER MS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE
ASCENT SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO ERN TX.
ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG...HIGHER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS AT THE SURFACE
SHOULD ENHANCE COLD POOL GENERATION. THUS IT APPEARS THAT THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH SEVERE HAIL ALSO
POSSIBLE.
A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0235
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0839 AM CST THU MAR 13 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA SWD INTO CNTRL FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 131439Z - 131645Z
THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL EXISTS WITH TSTMS OVER SRN GA WITH
MORE OF A WIND THREAT FARTHER S INTO THE FL PENINSULA. WW MAY BE
REQUIRED.
REGIONAL RADAR DATA SHOWS TSTMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY FROM SRN GA SWD INTO THE ERN FL PNHDL. 12Z SOUNDINGS
FROM TLH AND JAX INDICATE THAT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED WITH MUCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. AREAL COVERAGE OF TSTMS
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS FORCING FOR LARGE
SCALE ASCENT INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SRN AL/WRN FL PNHDL. 40-50 KT WLY
500 MB WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED TSTMS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ACROSS
SRN/ERN GA INTO FAR NRN FL.
FURTHER S...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE SURFACE-BASED TSTM
ACTIVITY. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK E-W FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE NRN PENINSULA. LINE OF TSTMS
CURRENTLY BUILDING SWD ACROSS THE ERN PNHDL SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BUILD SWD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE TO THE S OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0233
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 AM CST THU MAR 13 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OH...NWRN PA...AND WRN NY
CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
VALID 131339Z - 131645Z
MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP EWD FROM NRN OH INTO
NWRN/N-CENTRAL PA AND WRN/CENTRAL NY THROUGH LATE MORNING.
FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE CONFINED TO N-CENTRAL/NERN OH...WHERE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ALLOW FOR FREEZING RAIN
RATES POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 0.1"/HR FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA.
850-700MB WARM ADVECTION ZONE IN ADVANCE OF STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NRN IL/IND AT 1330Z WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS NERN
OH...NWRN PA...AND WRN NY DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.
EXISTENCE OF NELY SURFACE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN SUBFREEZING
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NERN OH...WHERE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL
FAVOR FREEZING RAIN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PERHAPS ENDING AS
SNOW DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD AS COLD ADVECTION
COMMENCES WITH PASSAGE OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH. WIDESPREAD LIGHTNING
ACROSS CENTRAL/E-CENTRAL OH JUST NORTH OF SURFACE WARM FRONT
SUGGESTS EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FREEZING RAIN RATES NEAR 0.1-0.2"/HR ACROSS N-CENTRAL/NERN OH.
ELSEWHERE...MODERATE SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD NWRN PA AND WRN NY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ON NRN PERIPHERY OF WARM ADVECTION
ZONE...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
Hail Reports
Time Size Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1515 75 GREENWOOD LEFLORE MS 3355 9026 PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON HIGHWAY 70 JUST NORTH OF GREENWOOD. REPORTED BY LEFLORE EMA. (JAN)
1532 88 3 S SUMRALL LAMAR MS 3136 8955 NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY LAMAR COUNTY EOC. (JAN)
1535 75 BRIDGE CITY ORANGE TX 3001 9385 PUBLIC REPORTED DIME SIZE HAIL IN BRIDGE CITY (LCH)
1548 75 GRAND LAKE CAMERON LA 3006 9328 DIME SIZE HAIL AROUND POONTOON BRIDGE (LCH)
Time Size Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1515 75 GREENWOOD LEFLORE MS 3355 9026 PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON HIGHWAY 70 JUST NORTH OF GREENWOOD. REPORTED BY LEFLORE EMA. (JAN)
1532 88 3 S SUMRALL LAMAR MS 3136 8955 NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY LAMAR COUNTY EOC. (JAN)
1535 75 BRIDGE CITY ORANGE TX 3001 9385 PUBLIC REPORTED DIME SIZE HAIL IN BRIDGE CITY (LCH)
1548 75 GRAND LAKE CAMERON LA 3006 9328 DIME SIZE HAIL AROUND POONTOON BRIDGE (LCH)
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Rob-TheStormChaser
Hail Reports
Time Size Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1245 88 5 SW MAGEE SIMPSON MS 3180 8980 REPORTED BY PUBLIC (JAN)
1303 75 3 S ELLISVILLE JONES MS 3155 8920 REPORTED BY JONES COUNTY EMA. (JAN)
1305 75 BOSTON THOMAS GA 3078 8378 TIME ESTIMATED. RELAYED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (TLH)
1315 75 VARNER LINCOLN AR 3403 9161 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT (LIT)
1320 100 ARKANSAS COUNTY ARKANSAS AR 3425 9136 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT (LIT)
1405 75 NEDERLAND JEFFERSON TX 2998 9398 (LCH)
1408 100 BEULAH BOLIVAR MS 3380 9100 REPORTED BY BOLIVAR COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE. (JAN)
1432 100 DREW SUNFLOWER MS 3381 9053 QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY SUNFLOWER CO CIVIL DEFENSE. ALSO 40 MPH WIND GUSTS. (JAN)
1515 75 GREENWOOD LEFLORE MS 3355 9026 PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON HIGHWAY 70 JUST NORTH OF GREENWOOD. REPORTED BY LEFLORE EMA. (JAN)
1532 88 3 S SUMRALL LAMAR MS 3136 8955 NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY LAMAR COUNTY EOC. (JAN)
1535 75 BRIDGE CITY ORANGE TX 3001 9385 PUBLIC REPORTED DIME SIZE HAIL IN BRIDGE CITY (LCH)
1548 75 GRAND LAKE CAMERON LA 3006 9328 DIME SIZE HAIL AROUND POONTOON BRIDGE (LCH)
Wind Reports
Time Speed Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1325 UNK DELUCE ARKANSAS AR 3419 9125 TREES DOWN. REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT (LIT)
1430 UNK 5 E LAKELAND LANIER GA 3103 8298 SEVERAL LARGE TREES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED. REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (TLH)
Time Size Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1245 88 5 SW MAGEE SIMPSON MS 3180 8980 REPORTED BY PUBLIC (JAN)
1303 75 3 S ELLISVILLE JONES MS 3155 8920 REPORTED BY JONES COUNTY EMA. (JAN)
1305 75 BOSTON THOMAS GA 3078 8378 TIME ESTIMATED. RELAYED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (TLH)
1315 75 VARNER LINCOLN AR 3403 9161 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT (LIT)
1320 100 ARKANSAS COUNTY ARKANSAS AR 3425 9136 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT (LIT)
1405 75 NEDERLAND JEFFERSON TX 2998 9398 (LCH)
1408 100 BEULAH BOLIVAR MS 3380 9100 REPORTED BY BOLIVAR COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE. (JAN)
1432 100 DREW SUNFLOWER MS 3381 9053 QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY SUNFLOWER CO CIVIL DEFENSE. ALSO 40 MPH WIND GUSTS. (JAN)
1515 75 GREENWOOD LEFLORE MS 3355 9026 PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON HIGHWAY 70 JUST NORTH OF GREENWOOD. REPORTED BY LEFLORE EMA. (JAN)
1532 88 3 S SUMRALL LAMAR MS 3136 8955 NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY LAMAR COUNTY EOC. (JAN)
1535 75 BRIDGE CITY ORANGE TX 3001 9385 PUBLIC REPORTED DIME SIZE HAIL IN BRIDGE CITY (LCH)
1548 75 GRAND LAKE CAMERON LA 3006 9328 DIME SIZE HAIL AROUND POONTOON BRIDGE (LCH)
Wind Reports
Time Speed Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1325 UNK DELUCE ARKANSAS AR 3419 9125 TREES DOWN. REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT (LIT)
1430 UNK 5 E LAKELAND LANIER GA 3103 8298 SEVERAL LARGE TREES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED. REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (TLH)
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