When will the first storm form before june 1 or after?

[Anonymous]

This poll is kind of silly if you ask me. It's basically like rolling a die and asking if it'll land on a 6...odds say no, and there's no way to tell...

Yes, as some in this thread have pointed out, there IS somewhat of a correlation between ENSO and preseason storms. However, TWW and I have done some research on the years where preseason storms occur in the Atlantic basin, and turns out that ENSO is the only factor that shows any decent correlation. QBO, NAO, ATC, etc...no real patterns with them. And so without backup from other parameters, you can't really make anything more than just a guess.

Since odds are pretty much all there is, then the safest answer is obviously no. I suppose all who voted yes just have a funky gut hunch or something...dunno.

[ColdFront77]

That's a good analogy, Rob.

There is a 16.66% chance of rolling a 6 on a six-sided die.

[george_r_1961]

I think the first named storm of the year will be before June 1..and that it will be subtropical and it will form either in the NE GOM or in the Atlantic off Florida. Keep in mind we did not begin naming subtropical systems until 2002 and its not uncommon at all to get one spinning off an old frontal boundary. Also remember NHC seems to be eager to name systems the past couple of years.

[Rainband]

This poll is kind of silly if you ask me. It's basically like rolling a die and asking if it'll land on a 6...odds say no, and there's no way to tell...

Yes, as some in this thread have pointed out, there IS somewhat of a correlation between ENSO and preseason storms. However, TWW and I have done some research on the years where preseason storms occur in the Atlantic basin, and turns out that ENSO is the only factor that shows any decent correlation. QBO, NAO, ATC, etc...no real patterns with them. And so without backup from other parameters, you can't really make anything more than just a guess.

Since odds are pretty much all there is, then the safest answer is obviously no. I suppose all who voted yes just have a funky gut hunch or something...dunno.

I voted yes because the last few years, last year especially, some Tropical cyclone genisis parameters were redefined. I guess I am thinking they will continue to fool us. If it was just a fluke then so be it, but if it wasn't the research you used may be a moot point. All I am saying is Mother Nature is highly unpredictable and if there was a twelve sided die to roll, it would better suit the purpose

[Anonymous]

Last year had a lot of broken records. But, the fact is, EVERY, and I mean EVERY season is unusual in one way or another. Can you think of a past season that wasn't out of the ordinary in any aspect? Didn't think so.

2004 will be no different. We WILL see unusual occurences. We WILL see records broken. 2003 may have been a little more odd than they usually come, but still, odd seasons aren't anything new.

I'm not saying we won't see another Ana this season. But 1)odds are certainly against it, and 2)there's basically no way to tell if we will or not. Just by the fact that we saw one last year, it'd be extremely unusual to see one AGAIN this year. I prefer to think 2004 will be weird in ways different than last season.

[Rainband]

Ok Rob...I'll Bite, what ways do you think 2004 will be weird compared to last season. I know ..we have to wait till the forecast comes out

[Anonymous]

Yeah, regarding 2004 my mouth is pretty much shut until then. Since we just had a preseason storm last year, I kind of doubt we'll get another this year. But like I've said, odds don't matter, so you never know.

[Rainband]

Yeah, regarding 2004 my mouth is pretty much shut until then. Since we just had a preseason storm last year, I kind of doubt we'll get another this year. But like I've said, odds don't matter, so you never know.

Thats what makes following the tropics so interesting to me. I like the unpredictable nature and power of it all

[Anonymous]

Thats what makes following the tropics so interesting to me. I like the unpredictable nature and power of it all

Amen

[ColdFront77]

I chose "After June 1st." But wouldn't be surprised if a subtropical (or tropical) system forms in in very late May.

The last week of May is "only" 12 weeks away.