My 2004 Atlantic Hurricane season prediction.....

#1 Postby **MGC** » Sun Feb 22, 2004 9:24 pm

I expect a near average start to the season. I do not expect any preseason systems to form this year. I also do not expect a June system. July will have one named system, likely forming in the GOM. August will have three named systems with September having four. October will have one system with it likely forming in the NW caribbean Sea. I do not expect any November systems nor any post season systems. El Nino could possibly effect the latter part of the season. I expect conditions will be excellent for hurricane formation in August and September so I will expect seven hurricanes. I will also add a correction factor of two named systems to account for the liberal naming of systems that the NHC apparently adopted. I expect two major hurricanes. On a serious note, I expect a major hurricane will strike a major US city this season resulting in multi-billions in damages. In summary: 12-7-2......MGC

Kelly · #2 Postby **Kelly** » Sun Feb 22, 2004 9:43 pm

hmmm, that's a pretty bold forecast, but i dont think El Nino, will have any effect on the tropical season unless it forms in either June, July or August, and gets up to a moderate intensity. But with the number of other factors arguing against it, a weak El Nino, probably wouldin't have much effect.

Also, the NCEP model, even if it were to be right, the El Nino doesn't strengthen enough to have any impact until well after the season is over.

JCT777 · #3 Postby **JCT777** » Mon Feb 23, 2004 12:48 pm

Nice forecast, MGC.

rainstorm · #4 Postby **rainstorm** » Tue Feb 24, 2004 9:52 pm

sounds good!!

Anonymous · #5 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Feb 27, 2004 4:55 pm

Not bad. Now prove it.

#6 Postby **wx247** » Fri Feb 27, 2004 6:31 pm

Supercane wrote:Not bad. Now prove it.

I, too, am curious as to what factors you believe will lead to a major hurricane hitting a US city.

rainstorm · #7 Postby **rainstorm** » Fri Feb 27, 2004 9:01 pm

Supercane wrote:Not bad. Now prove it.

umm, how can you "prove" something that hasnt happened yet? obviously, no one's forecast can be proved. the proof is in the pudding, and mgc makes a tasty banana pudding!!

Anonymous · #8 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Feb 27, 2004 9:24 pm

rainstorm wrote:
Supercane wrote:Not bad. Now prove it.

umm, how can you "prove" something that hasnt happened yet? obviously, no one's forecast can be proved. the proof is in the pudding, and mgc makes a tasty banana pudding!!

For starters, you can say WHY you're forecasting something as detailed as all that. The preciseness of MGC's predictions is awesome (you know how TWW and I are when it comes to details)...but if you don't have any reasoning then what's the point?

And I don't like banana pudding.

Anonymous · #9 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Feb 27, 2004 9:26 pm

I want some. 8-)

Stormsfury · #10 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sat Feb 28, 2004 2:19 pm

TropicalWxWatcher wrote:I want some.

I'll second that, with extra extra vanilla wafers...

Josephine96 · #11 Postby **Josephine96** » Sat Feb 28, 2004 10:47 pm

All I have to say is..

15/7/4 lol

#12 Postby **Stephanie** » Sun Feb 29, 2004 11:47 am

wx247 wrote:
Supercane wrote:Not bad. Now prove it.

I, too, am curious as to what factors you believe will lead to a major hurricane hitting a US city.

The odds are in favor of it happening. Yes, we had Isabel visit the MidAtlantic and we got VERY LUCKY that she wasn't the Cat 5 she had been.

I'd like to hear alittle more of the details surrounding MGC's forecast as well. It sounds like we're looking at a more "normal" season without any extra-tropical systems forming early or very late. Last year was a year of extremes in so many ways.

#13 Postby **wx247** » Sun Feb 29, 2004 11:58 am

Stephanie... if he is basing predictions on odds that is fine. I am just curious, being someone who is relatively new to the "tropical experience". We all know that mother nature doesn't play by the rules or odds.

Anonymous · #14 Postby **Anonymous** » Sun Feb 29, 2004 1:04 pm

The odds are in favor of it happening. Yes, we had Isabel visit the MidAtlantic and we got VERY LUCKY that she wasn't the Cat 5 she had been.

Odds don't mean anything though. If a certain location, on average, gets hit by a major hurricane every 5 years...and there hasn't been one since 1980 (hypothetically speaking)...does that make it more likely for one to hit this season? Nope.

As for MGC's forecast, I honestly don't think there's much reasoning behind most of those predictions, other than good guessing and going with the odds. But I could be wrong.

Stephanie... if he is basing predictions on odds that is fine. I am just curious, being someone who is relatively new to the "tropical experience". We all know that mother nature doesn't play by the rules or odds.

MGC is a she :wink:

#15 Postby **wx247** » Sun Feb 29, 2004 3:26 pm

My sincerest apologies MGC.

mf_dolphin · #16 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Sun Feb 29, 2004 3:39 pm

[quote="Supercane]Odds don't mean anything though. If a certain location, on average, gets hit by a major hurricane every 5 years...and there hasn't been one since 1980 (hypothetically speaking)...does that make it more likely for one to hit this season? Nope.

As for MGC's forecast, I honestly don't think there's much reasoning behind most of those predictions, other than good guessing and going with the odds. But I could be wrong.[/quote]

I would bet that mathematicians and the Las Vegas casinos would disagree with you on the odds. While technically the odds in any one years will not change significantly the fact that it's been a long dry spell means that sooner or later it will come to an end. :-)

I don't think anyone's forecast should be taken seriously at this point in the year but it doesn't mean we can't have fun doing it either :-)

Anonymous · #17 Postby **Anonymous** » Sun Feb 29, 2004 4:48 pm

mf_dolphin wrote:I would bet that mathematicians and the Las Vegas casinos would disagree with you on the odds. While technically the odds in any one years will not change significantly the fact that it's been a long dry spell means that sooner or later it will come to an end. I don't think anyone's forecast should be taken seriously at this point in the year but it doesn't mean we can't have fun doing it either

That's my point though...sooner or later doesn't mean it'll be THIS year. It could be, but it doesn't have to be. It could be next season. 2010. 2065. Odds do NOT tell you WHICH season it'll be. To find out if this season will go with the odds or against it, you HAVE to go beyond the odds and look at the synoptic longwave pattern, climatology, steering flow set-up, etc. For a reasonable playful guess, odds are fine. But if you want an accurate prediction, you can't rely on odds. You just can't.

mf_dolphin · #18 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Sun Feb 29, 2004 4:57 pm

You're taking this entirely too seriously LOL

Anonymous · #19 Postby **Anonymous** » Sun Feb 29, 2004 5:28 pm

mf_dolphin wrote:You're taking this entirely too seriously LOL

If you think I'm taking this too seriously, just wait til our May 25 seasonal forecast comes out. NON-stop blabbing! :lol:

#20 Postby **george_r_1961** » Wed Mar 03, 2004 5:37 pm

I will be the first to say im not a hurricane expert my any means; my "expertise" is limited to mid lattitude systems that affect my area. But we ARE obviously in a period of increased activity and landfalls....at least we are here on the EC. As far as El Nino it is expected to be weak and form late in the season...or be nonexistant. I DO believe that there will be at least one major landfalling hurricane this year..if not more. I also believe that there is an above average chance of the EC taking a hit again this year. Ditto for the GOM. But only time will tell.

My 2004 Atlantic Hurricane season prediction.....

My 2004 Atlantic Hurricane season prediction.....

Above average season

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