Latest ENSO model forecast are for the most part neutral

[cycloneye]

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml

This is the latest update from all of them but let's see in reallity what will happen in the next few months and see if a weak el nino appears or neutral conditions will continue.There haved been some projections of el nino to grow in intensitie by years end and if it does that earlier by the ladder part of the season it well may shut down the last part of it but time will tell if that happens.

[Guest]

Well i know this much i for one am very leary of what that says because it was only back in Aug last year that this same thing showed us going into a moderate EL'Nino by spring and well you can see how thats verifing which i kinda counted somewhat on with my winter outlook for Feb anyways. Hopefully March will help with my big deficits i have going in certain places acros the US. QBO kinda nabbed me as well. Anyways this isnt the place to yap about that.

I just am gonna wait untill atleast mid APR before i put my two cents in on the up comming tropical season. Right now from what i have seen i would atleast go with a average and no less tropical season!

[cycloneye]

Yes KOW these ENSO models flip-flop many times and are not to take them as a given what they project.

[Guest]

Yep your right Luis i do know that. Whats worse is i think alot of people kinda expected what i did. Everything did seem to point to it at that time besides just this. Has me wondering what exactly happend which i am looking into and i will post about it at a later date when i do find out as im certain everyone will wanna know. Should be intresting for sure!

[MWatkins]

Hey Cyclone...yeah...that kelvin wave faded faster than Howard Dean's campaign after that shouting incident.

This is the most difficult modeling period for ENSO projections...I remember the 97 nino just started to blow up in April/May. The fact that there has been little change in the trade winds suggests that a transition to a nino event...if any...will be slow. I have a pretty good feeling this will be a very active year. Very active.

MW

[Anonymous]

I could really care less about what the models think. They have been flip-flopping quite a bit (CPC is the king flippy-flopper). Whenever this is the case, you know it's time to step away from them.

With that being said, the status of ENSO this upcoming season is already very clear...not based on models, but on EQPAC subsurface anomalies, MJO/KW activity, and climatology. I don't see why there's so much question about what it's going to do...pretty much a no brainer factor IMO.