Tropical Update: 26 Feb

[senorpepr]

A) TC Ivy (13P): At 26/1045Z...
Position near 18.0S 168.5E (10nm NNW of Port Vila, Vanuatu)
Movement toward the SSE at 8 mph
Maximum sustained winds are 115 mph
Minimum central pressure is 944 mb
T# numbers: 4.5/5.0

Ivy has begun weakening due to land interaction. Expect this trend to continue as Ivy encounters decreased outflow and increased shear. Within the next day or two, expect Ivy to become extratropical.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warni ... 304web.txt

B) Invest (97S): At 26/1630Z...
Position near 12.7S 82.4E (500nm ESE of Diego Garcia)
Maximum sustained winds are 25 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1004 mb

Upper-air analysis shows favorable conditions with good outflow. Meanwhile, moderate to minimal shear is present. The JTWC has given 97S a "poor" chance at development.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/ab/abioweb.txt

C) Invest (98S): At 26/1050Z...
Position near 18.6S 122.4E
Maximum sustained winds are 15 mph

The ABIO outlook does not mention anything on 98S yet. However, it wouldn't surprise me if the 18Z update has a comment on it. This system has just moved into the water from the western coast of Australia, near Port Hedland. This system actually looks more impressive than 97S. We'll see... Regardless, I'll list the ABIO link in-case the JTWC mentions it this afternoon.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/ab/abioweb.txt

Please utilize the above link for the latest advisory. For latest forecast tracks and satellite imagery, go to the NRL Monterey's website at: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[senorpepr]

...Ivy obs...

Code: Select all

Note: Winds are in degrees @ mph; vis is in statute miles; Sky Condition is reported in hundreds of feet (005=500') Temp and Dewpt are in °F, Pressure is in inches of mercury. /// is encoded for missing data.

Location      Time     Winds     Vis  Weather                   Sky Condition        Temp Dewpt Pressure
Sola (Vanua L 26/0600Z 280@09    12.4 Lgt Rain Shwrs            OVC010               85°F 78°F  29.55"
Pekoa Airport 26/0600Z 300@06    12.4 Lgt Rain Shwrs            OVC010               81°F 75°F  29.46"
Bauerfield (E 26/1500Z 280@28    2.50 Lgt Rain Shwrs/Lightning  BKN006 BKN080        79°F 78°F  29.28"
White Grass A 26/1200Z 120@23    1.20 Lgt Rain Shwrs            BKN006 BKN080        75°F 70°F  29.31"
Aneityum      26/1200Z 080@23    12.4 Lgt Rain Shwrs            BKN006 BKN080        75°F 73°F  29.55"
Koumax (Nlle- 26/1500Z 160@02    ///  ///                       ///                  78°F 71°F  29.59"

[senorpepr]

UPDATE!

A) TC Ivy (13P): At 26/1525Z...
Position near 19.3S 168.9E (near Port Vila, Vanuatu)
Movement toward the SSE at 8 mph
Maximum sustained winds are 120 mph
Minimum central pressure is 938 mb
T# numbers: 4.5/5.0

[Aslkahuna]

it looks as though 98S is still overland which is why JTWC is not carrying it. The movement of this disturbance is important. If it is moving W or WNW it will move out over warm water fairly soon and given the very good satellite presentation it should begin cranking as soon as the bulk of the system moves offshore since the land area there is very flat. OTOH if it moves SW then it will take longer to move over water and by coasting out near Learmonth it will quickly encounter cooler water off the coast and development may not occur.

Steve

[senorpepr]

The low is expected to move offshore and head towards the southwest,
remaining quite close to the coast. Conditions are not considered favourable for
development over the next three days. There is some potential for a weak
tropical cyclone to form on Monday off the west Pilbara coast, but it is
unlikely to produce destructive winds, and is considered more likely to remain
below cyclone intensity. This system will be monitored closely.
No other systems are expected to develop over the weekend.

[senorpepr]

UPDATE!

A) TC Ivy (13P): At 26/2100Z...
Position near 19.9S 169.0E (100nm SSE of Port Vila, Vanuatu)
Movement toward the SSE at 10 mph
Maximum sustained winds are 120 mph
Minimum central pressure is 938 mb
T# numbers: 4.5/5.0

Ivy has recently went through a brief reintensification period. However, expect decreased outflow and increased shear to resume the weakening trend.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warni ... 304web.txt

[senorpepr]

UPDATE!

A) TC Ivy (13P): At 26/2325Z...
Position near 20.0S 169.1E (100nm SSE of Port Vila, Vanuatu)
Maximum sustained winds are 115 mph
Minimum central pressure is 994 mb
T# numbers: 4.5/4.5

Ivy has recently went through a brief reintensification period. However, expect decreased outflow and increased shear to resume the weakening trend.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warni ... 304web.txt

B) Invest (97S): At 27/0100Z...
Position near 12.7S 83.0E (665nm ESE of Diego Garcia)
Maximum sustained winds are 25 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1004 mb

Upper-air analysis shows favorable conditions with good outflow. Meanwhile, moderate to minimal shear is present. The JTWC has given 97S a "poor" chance at development.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/ab/abioweb.txt

C) Invest (98S): At 26/2325Z...
Position near 19.3S 120.8E (140 ENE of Port Hedland, Australia)
Maximum sustained winds are 30 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1002 mb
T# numbers: 1.0/1.0

Recently the JTWC has issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert for 98S. It appears this system is starting to get its act together; therefore the satellite agencies have begun using the Dvorak technique on 98S. The JTWC was given 98Sa “good” chance at development. Should 98S form into a cyclone, it will receive the name “Monty”.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warni ... 804web.txt

Please utilize the above link for the latest advisory. For latest forecast tracks and satellite imagery, go to the NRL Monterey's website at: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html