Tropical Update: 24 Feb

[senorpepr]

A) TC Ivy (13P): At 24/0900Z...
Position near 13.9S 168.9E (245nm N of Port Vila, Vanuatu)
Movement toward the SW at 7 mph
Maximum sustained winds are 85 mph
Minimum central pressure is 967 mb
T# numbers: 4.5/4.5

After reaching 90 mph with a pressure of 963, Ivy has slightly weakened. Water Vapor shows a filling upper-level low that is approaching Ivy from the southwest. This feature has cut-off the poleward outflow from Ivy over the past 12 hours. This is what has cause this slight weakening. Regardless, Ivy is expected to track more southwest- to southward as a shortwave trough passes south of Ivy. Nonetheless, expect Ivy to continue strengthening throughout the next 48 hours as she ends the forecast period with winds of 140 mph.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warni ... 304web.txt

Please utilize the above link for the latest advisory. For latest forecast tracks and satellite imagery, go to the NRL Monterey's website at: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[senorpepr]

UPDATE!

We have a new invest...

B) Invest (96S): At 24/1430Z...
Position near 9.0S 79.0E
Maximum sustained winds are 30 mph

If this system develops, the La Reunion Office will name it "Gafilo"

The JTWC should send out an Indian Ocean Significant Tropical Weather Advisory around 18Z or 1pm EST. We'll see what it says...

[senorpepr]

The latest IOSTWA was released from the JTWC. No comments on Invest 96S. We'll stay tuned...

[Aslkahuna]

much there in the area of Invest 96S-certainly nothing in the way of defined circulation features nor that much convection right now.

Steve

[senorpepr]

Roger there Steve. 96S does not look all too impressive on satellite. Ivy, on the other hand, doesn't look too shabby.

[senorpepr]

UPDATE!

A) TC Ivy (13P): At 24/2100Z...
Position near 15.0S 168.1E (190nm N of Port Vila, Vanuatu)
Movement toward the SW at 9 mph
Maximum sustained winds are 100 mph
Minimum central pressure is 954 mb
T# numbers: 5.0/5.0

The filling upper-level low that had weakened Ivy earlier has moved southeastward, allowing Ivy to resume strengthening. Expect Ivy to max out around the 36 hour point of the forecast at 130 mph. Afterwards, expect Ivy to undergo an extratropical transition.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warni ... 304web.txt

B) Invest (96S): At 24/2130Z...
Position near 9.0S 78.7E
Maximum sustained winds are 30 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1002 mb

There is nothing new really to report here. There has been a slight westward movement this 96S. Central pressure is now being reported as 1002mb. We’ll have to wait to see if the JTWC mentions this system on tomorrow afternoon’s Indian Ocean Outlook.

Please utilize the above link for the latest advisory. For latest forecast tracks and satellite imagery, go to the NRL Monterey's website at: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[senorpepr]

...Invest 96S has been removed from the NRL website...