0z 2/19 (Wed.) GGEM take on the Mid week system.

[Erica]

Most of the GGEM ensemble members were further north with the Southern branch s/w than the operational GFS, or even the ECMWF.

500mb height 144 hours


Surface Precipitation/Thickness 144 hours


First of all, ignore the temperature profiles, and thicknesses they are way too high (GGEM warm bias). Most of the members would also suggest the heaviest precipitation does make it north of Washington DC.

500mb height 168 hours


Surface Precipitation/Thickness 168 hours


For those hoping for a significant impact on the major cities, this particular run of the ensembles would at least come close to verifying that for you.

For pretty much everyone from Chicago on east, this is something that you need to keep a close eye on over the next few days. That includes those of you in the Lower Lakes, Ohio valley, Mid Atlantic, Northeast and Southern New England Especially South of Boston.

Tonight's run of the ECMWF did have the phasing needed to develop a major winter storm for the east coast, although, the phasing occurs too late.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Great Anaysis, Erica. And Yes, Something to Watch........ ( And The March Patten is Crazy)

[DelStormLover]

Erica, are you Related to RNS?

[donsutherland1]

Great discussion, Erica. Given the ensembles, I don't think anyone in the big cities of the East should automatically dismiss the snowfall potential from next week's midweek system.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Great discussion, Erica. Given the ensembles, I don't think anyone in the big cities of the East should automatically dismiss the snowfall potential from next week's midweek system.

Agreed 100% Don........ I am Looking forward to March as well.... March 1960!

[Erica]

Great discussion, Erica. Given the ensembles, I don't think anyone in the big cities of the East should automatically dismiss the snowfall potential from next week's midweek system.

Thanks, Don. I agree, this shouldin't be dismissed, even by those in far northern New England.

But they will anyway, no matter what we say or the data shows, be it good or bad.

[Anonymous]

00z ggem looks very threatning for DC/BALT/PHILLY and most of the MA

[yoda]

Hey Ji!! Yes, bring it!! BRING THE SNOW!!! I will watch it VERY CLOSELY... Any chance of this becoming a 50/50 low? Also, won't there be a greenland block by this time?

[JCT777]

Nice discussion, Erica. This is definitely a storm to watch. Hopefully, things still look promising in a few days.

[Stephanie]

Thanks Erica for the maps and your insight to next week!

[Colin]

LOL...please don't get excited...

[JCT777]

Colin - good idea not to get too excited yet. But this is probably the most promising looking winter storm for our area in nearly a month. So it's definitely something to keep on eye on for the next few days, and then we can start honking if the models still have this storm on Monday.

[weatherfan]

Good post on the next event.Have A question those for you Flguy and Don.How do you guys feel about how March will turn out.Because there has been talk of a cold periold and of course HMs big dog that he has been going on and talking about for months in March.However Now Dt feels that March might be warm.So once again as so many times this year the possableys have look good on paper but when it comes to end times.its always bad timeing.I'm not saying that you guys are wrong.But I have accually brought up this possabley.And I'm not ruleing out cold yet eather.The QBO is changeing westery which to many seems good for a cold and snowey March.But here the cation as I brought up a few weeks ago.

Some anlogs stated that doing winters when the QBO change from east to west Feb-March in winters doing Nurtrul there is a trend toweds early springs.Not all years but some Anlogs did show this.Which is why I repleyd a while back in that Late Febuarey-March was a toss up.I guess what I'm saying is I would have felt more conferdent in it if El nino also had come in. meaning El nino West.But giving we are still nurtrul ENSO.It is a toss up.