NCEP forecast for ENSO shows a pronnounced el nino in dec

[cycloneye]

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/c ... cordxy.gif

Red colors by december show up in this weeks latest forecast.But of course this projection can change before december or after that month so what will happen by years end is unknown but we can say that the 2004 hurricane season will not have a strong nor moderate el nino but a neutral-weak el nino and if that comes thru during the summer months then the atlantic hurricane season wont be affected by the ENSO factor.

[Lindaloo]

What does this mean Ceye? If we do not have a strong El Nino then we will have an above average season? I am confused. lol.

[cycloneye]

What does this mean Ceye? If we do not have a strong El Nino then we will have an above average season? I am confused. lol.

Simple Linda strong el nino less atlantic activity VS neutral-weak el nino or la nina is the opposite more atlantic activity.

[wxman57]

I think it means there won't be many hurricanes next December.

[Erica]

The NCEP model has been showing this for several months now, and at the present time, there really aren't any conclusive signs that a moderate to strong warm episode (SSTA above +2.0 to +3.0 C ) will develop by December.

It's most likely wrong. And even if it does develop in the way that the NCEP model suggests, I doubt it will be soon enough to have any pronounced effect on the tropical season.

[MGC]

If this warm episode does develope by December, which I doubt occurs, it will likely effect the latter part of the season say Oct and Nov......MGC

[cycloneye]

The NCEP model has been showing this for several months now, and at the present time, there really aren't any conclusive signs that a moderate to strong warm episode (SSTA above +2.0 to +3.0 C ) will develop by December.

It's most likely wrong. And even if it does develop in the way that the NCEP model suggests, I doubt it will be soon enough to have any pronounced effect on the tropical season.

Yes I agree Erica that there is no guarantee that this forecast will come thru but however if a warm episode develops earlier than december it may affect the last part of the season as MGC says but it is too early to say for sure what kind of ENSO will form by years end.

[Erica]

If the NCEP model were to verify at face value, (which is not going to happen anyway, I promise you ), The October and November SSTA only support what would be classified as a Weak El Nino.

Normally, weak El Nino events (especially when other factors oppose it) Normally, don't have much effect on tropical Cyclone formation in the Atlantic Basin. It normally takes a moderate to strong episode to significantly effect the tropical season.

I don't forsee either the Moderate to strong El Nino which the model has forecasted for December 2004, or a substantial effect on the later half of the 2004 tropical season occuring.

The NCEP model has very little support from the other data, and therefore, I really can't say it's correct.

[cycloneye]

If the NCEP model were to verify at face value, (which is not going to happen anyway, I promise you ), The October and November SSTA only support what would be classified as a Weak El Nino.

Normally, weak El Nino events (especially when other factors oppose it) Normally, don't have much effect on tropical Cyclone formation in the Atlantic Basin. It normally takes a moderate to strong episode to significantly effect the tropical season.

I don't forsee either the Moderate to strong El Nino which the model has forecasted for December 2004, or a substantial effect on the later half of the 2004 tropical season occuring.

The NCEP model has very little support from the other data, and therefore, I really can't say it's correct.

Yes that is only one model of many who do those ENSO forecasts and by next week the latest update from all the models will come out and let's see what they say.

[Erica]

Well, if there is a trend in the direction over several runs toward the current NCEP model solution, and the NCEP model it's self remains consistent, then there might be something more there to consider.

But for right now, and especially conidering the PDO cold phase, I really doubt there will be a moderate to strong El Nino centered near the coast of South America by December of this year.

If one is to develop, it will probably be alot weaker and centered further back to the west, but even that remains speculation, at least for right now.