Graphic here... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outloo ... k_0800.gif
From the SPC...
...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER 48 THIS PERIOD. THE
MAIN POLAR JET SHOULD EXTEND FROM S CNTRL CANADA ACROSS THE GRT LKS
AND NEW ENGLAND TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE WEAKER SRN STREAM
JET PERSISTS FROM CA AND NRN MEXICO ENE TO THE S ATLANTIC CST. A
FAIRLY STRONG IMPULSE IN THIS FLOW...NOW OVER ERN AZ...SHOULD REACH
W TX BY 12Z SATURDAY AND CONTINUE E/NE INTO MS/AL BY 12Z SUNDAY.
AT LOWER LEVELS...STATIONARY FRONT NOW EXTENDING W/E ACROSS CNTRL FL
AND THE ADJACENT GULF SHOULD LIFT N ACROSS THE STATE EARLY SATURDAY
AS APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE INDUCES DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE ALONG
THE FRONT OVER THE NERN GULF.
...N FL/FAR S GA...
AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION THUNDER WILL PROBABLY BE
PRESENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG AND N OF STALLED FRONT OVER
NRN FL/S GA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND
MAY INCLUDE A COUPLE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS GIVEN 40 KT DEEP SHEAR
ORIENTED PARALLEL TO FRONT. SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN
WEAK...LIMITING TORNADIC THREAT DESPITE BACKED FLOW NEAR BOUNDARY.
AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF STORMS WILL LIKELY CROSS NRN AND CNTRL PARTS
OF FL LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL MARK LEADING
EDGE OF STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SRN STREAM VORT.
GIVEN FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY...RICH MOISTURE INFLOW /MEAN SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/...40-50 KT DEEP SHEAR ORIENTED ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO AXIS OF LINEAR FORCING /DPVA/...MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE
SHOULD BE A BROKEN SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. VEERED LOW
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR LONG-LIVED TORNADOES. BUT
SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT BOWING STRUCTURES WITH HIGH WIND/BRIEF
TORNADOES.
From NWS Melbourne
ALTHOUGH UPPER
JET DYNAMICS ARE NOT ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LIFT WILL BE
GENERATED IN THE LOWER LEVELS FROM WAA. IN ADDITION...ACTIVE 850 MB
JET IN UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW SUGGESTS THAT A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG/SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG
WINDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.
NWS Tallahassee...
AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ETA AND GFS I AM FORECASTING THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE GULF BUT NOT INLAND.
NWS Tampa...
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR A FEW STORMS TO
BECOME STRONG AS 40 TO 50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
OVERHEAD IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING. SPC IS
EXPECTING A BROKEN SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS TO COME
THROUGH. THUS THEY HAVE PLACED US IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WX...
WITH HIGH WINDS AND POSSIBLE BRIEF TORNADOES ALONG BOWING STRUCTURES
WITHIN THE LINE AS THE MAIN THREATS.
NWS Jacksonville
MODELS INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WORDING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA.
and as u posted in the HWOs Tom, The NWS sees it as possible.
