NWS WAKEFIELD

[hurricanedude]

THURSDAY...THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST GETS INTERESTING. THE
PAST FEW ETA/GFS MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER N WITH THE
BAROCLINIC LEAF/DEEPER MOISTURE SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM. FROM A SYNOPTIC SCALE STANDPOINT THIS SYSTEM IS
SIMILAR TO THE JAN 16-17 EVENT OF LAST YEAR...THOUGH AT THIS
POINT NOT AS STRONG. UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW WOULD LIKELY
LIMIT THE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW (I.E. NOT A MILLER A
OR COASTAL RUNNER)...HOWEVER THE TRENDS FOR WAVE AMPLIFICATION
(BACKING OF 850-500 MB WINDS) ARE NOTED AND COULD CONTINUE WITH
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. THIS ESPECIALLY AS THE SYSTEM REACHES THE GULF
STREAM WATERS AND BEGINS TO FEED OFF THE ADDED DIABATIC HEATING.
MODEL PROGS IN FACT DO SHOW A DUAL NRN/SRN STREAM JET STRUCTURE WITH
COUPLED NRN/SRN STREAM AGEO CIRCULATION AND ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS ONE. FOR NOW PER
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE ADDED CHANCE OF R/S ON
THU...WHILE LOWERING TEMPS BELOW MOS.

[JCT777]

Looks like you might get some snow!

[verycoolnin]

The 06 ETA run shows .75-1in of liquid precip for SE VA while maintaining sub freezing temps at 850mbs.

[rainstorm]

6+??

[yoda]

see the updated afd from wakefield, a very good one!!