Tropical Update: 9 Feb

[senorpepr]

1) Invest (97P). Located at 09/0930Z near 9.3S 153.9E (400nm E of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea). Winds are 20-25mph. Satellite imagery indicates a low level circulation corming with an area of cycling convection. Favorable diffluence but moderate wind shear is present. The JTWC has given 97P a "poor" chance at development. The Bureau of Meteorology in Brisbane has given 97P a "moderate" chance of development for the next 24hrs, then increasing to a "high" chance thereafter. Latest Dvorak estimates are unavailable as the responsibile agencies have yet to begin issuing T# numbers.

https://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/ab/abioweb.txt
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ10810.shtml

2) Invest (98S). Located at 09/0600Z near 15.9S 119.8E (315nm NNEE of Port Hedland, Australia). Winds are 20-25mph. Satellite imagery indicates a low level circulation corming with an area of cycling convection. Favorable diffluence but moderate to strong wind shear is present. The JTWC has given 98S a "poor" chance at development. The Bureau of Meteorology in Perth has given 98S a "low" chance of development as well, but mentions that after 3 days, the chances may increase. Latest Dvorak estimates are unavailable as the responsibile agencies have yet to begin issuing T# numbers.

https://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/ab/abpwweb.txt
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW10800.shtml

Click the links above for the latest advisory or go to the JTWC's website: https://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html for latest forecast tracks and satellite imagery.

[senorpepr]

UPDATE!

3) Invest (99S). Located at 09/1200Z near 8-10S 84-90E. NRL Monterey has upgraded this wave into an Invest system. JTWC nor Meteo-France/La Reunion has issued any guidance on 99S. Regardless, we'll be monitoring the progress of this system. Latest Dvorak estimates are unavailable as the responsibile agencies have yet to begin issuing T# numbers.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ ... _full.html

Click the links above for the latest advisory or go to the JTWC's website: https://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html for latest forecast tracks and satellite imagery.

[Hurricanehink]

Thanks for keeping us up to date.

[senorpepr]

no problem... my pleasure

[senorpepr]

THE Weather Bureau says it is still expecting a tropical cyclone to develop off far north Queensland later this week.

The bureau is watching the activities of a monsoonal trough that is expected to lead to the formation of a cyclone.

It said most computer models still forecast the development of the cyclone over the northern Coral Sea from tomorrow onwards and its subsequent movement towards the south-west.

The bureau said the potential for a tropical cyclone to develop in the next 36 hours was low, but rose to high between 36 and 72 hours.

[senorpepr]

UPDATE!

1) Invest (97P): At 09/2000Z...
Position near 9.3S 153.9E (400nm E of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea)
Maximum sustained winds are 15-25 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1004 mb

Satellite imagery indicates a low level circulation forming with an area of cycling convection. Favorable diffluence but moderate wind shear is present. The JTWC has given 97P a "poor" chance at development. The Bureau of Meteorology in Brisbane has given 97P a "moderate" chance of development for the next 24hrs, then increasing to a "high" chance thereafter.

https://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/ab/abioweb.txt
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ10810.shtml

2) Invest (98S): At 09/1800Z...
Position near 16.2S 120.3E (270nm NNE of Port Hedland, Australia)
Maximum sustained winds are 15-25 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1000 mb

Satellite imagery indicates a low level circulation forming with an area of cycling convection. Favorable diffluence but moderate to strong wind shear is present. The JTWC has given 98S a "poor" chance at development. The Bureau of Meteorology in Perth has given 98S a "low" chance of development as well, but mentions that after 3 days, the chances may increase.

https://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/ab/abpwweb.txt
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW10800.shtml

3) Invest (99S): At 09/1200Z...
Position near 08-10N 84-90E

NRL Monterey has upgraded this wave into an Invest system. JTWC nor Meteo-France/La Reunion has issued any guidance on 99S. Regardless, we'll be monitoring the progress of this system.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

4) Invest (94W): At 09/2000Z...
Position near 5.0N 153.0E (250nm WSW of Pohnpe)
Maximum sustained winds are 15-25 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1008 mb

Satellite imagery indicates a low level circulation forming with an area of cycling convection. The system is in a pocket of favorable divergence yet moderate shear. The JTWC has given 94W a "poor" chance at development for the next 24 hours.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/AJT ... bpwweb.txt

Please utilize the above link for the latest advisory. For latest forecast tracks and satellite imagery, go to the NRL Monterey's website at: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[Aslkahuna]

shows circulation features on the latest satellite imagery but convection is widley scattered and disorganized. The one in WPAC appears to be primarily a wave right now while the one off of the NW coast of Australia has turning but no circulation or organized convection.

Steve

PS: JTWC is in exercise mode so the AJTWC in Monterey has taken over for now.

[senorpepr]

...Monterey just dropped 99S...