Tropical Update: 6 Feb

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senorpepr
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Tropical Update: 6 Feb

#1 Postby senorpepr » Fri Feb 06, 2004 11:21 am

:rarrow: 1) TC Frank (10S). Currently at 22.2S 73.0E (875nm E of Mauritius) and moving ESE at 13mph. Winds are 65mph. Frank is continuing it's weakening as it tracks along the western side of the mid level subtropical ridge. This weakening trend can be blamed on Franks track through cooler waters and the decreasing equatorward outflow. Expect Frank to begin the extratropical transition in 36-48hrs. The 48hr point of the forecast has Frank becoming extratropical as a 40mph cyclone. Latest Dvorak estimates are noted as extratropical.

https://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/sh1004web.txt

:rarrow: 2) Invest (96P). Currently between Queesland, Australia and Papua New Guinea. I am unable to check the NRL Monterey for updates, so we are going to assume that they are maintaining data up on 96P. Regardless, the JTWC has yet to issue any guidance on it. The Bureau of Meteorology in Australia mentioned that 96P should continue in a westward motion and have a chance at development after it exits west of the Kimberley coast. Until then, expect a "low" chance at development.Regardless, we'll monitor 96P for signs of development. Latest Dvorak estimates are unavailable as the responsibile agencies have yet to begin issuing T# numbers.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Click the links above for the latest advisory or go to the JTWC's website: https://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html for latest forecast tracks and satellite imagery.
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Aslkahuna
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#2 Postby Aslkahuna » Fri Feb 06, 2004 2:46 pm

does not show much of anything with any degree of organization around TC10S indicating that the system is primarily a low level one. Invest 96P is still being carried by NRL however, JTWC usually doesn't carry suspect areas over land so until it moves offshore they probably won't have anything on it.

Steve
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