Tropical Update: 5 Feb

[senorpepr]

1) TC Elita (09S). Currently at 25.9S 49.4E (440nm SW of La Reunion) and moving SW at 8mph. Winds are 40mph. Elita is currently in the dissipation phase as it's low level circulation is the only remaining feature of Elita. The rest of Elita has been sheared apart and the JTWC has issued its final warning on her. They will continue to monitor Elita for signs of regeneration. Latest Dvorak estimates are unavailable as the responsibile agencies has discontinued T# numbers.

https://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/sh0904web.txt

2) TC Frank (10S). Currently at 19.9S 69.9E (700nm E of Mauritius) and moving S at 3mph. Winds are 110mph. Frank is continuing it's weakening as it tracks along the western side of the mid level subtropical ridge. This weakening trend can be blamed on Franks track through cooler waters and the decreasing equatorward outflow. Expect Frank to begin the extratropical transition in 36-48hrs. The 48hr point of the forecast has Frank becoming extratropical as a 80mph cyclone. Latest Dvorak estimates are T4.0/T5.0

https://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/sh1004web.txt

3) Invest (95S). Currently near 10-12S and 88-90E or between Indonesia and Diego Garcia. NRL Monterey currently has data up on 95S, but the JTWC has yet to issue any guidance on it. Regardless, we'll monitor 95S for signs of development. Latest Dvorak estimates are unavailable as the responsibile agencies have yet to begin issuing T# numbers. The 1st link below is a link to JTWC in the event they issue a TC Formation Alert. (Note: this link will NOT work until they issue a TCFA on 95S) The 2nd link is a link to NRL Monterey.

https://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/sh1004web.txt
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Click the links above for the latest advisory or go to the JTWC's website: https://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html for latest forecast tracks and satellite imagery.

[cycloneye]

Thank you Mike for providing the members all of what is going on in the tropics outside the atlantic and eastern pacific basins in a very detailed way bringing all the information on cyclones or invests out there.

[senorpepr]

No problem... it's my pleasure!

[senorpepr]

an update...

3) Invest (95S). Currently near 10-12S and 88-90E or between Indonesia and Diego Garcia. NRL Monterey has dropped 95S from their website. JTWC has not issued a TCFA nor mentioned it on the IO outlook. We'll keep an eye on it in case it tries to form.

4) Invest (96P). Currently between Queesland, Australia and Papua New Guinea. NRL Monterey currently has data up on 99P, but the JTWC has yet to issue any guidance on it. Regardless, we'll monitor 96P for signs of development. Latest Dvorak estimates are unavailable as the responsibile agencies have yet to begin issuing T# numbers.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Click the links above for the latest advisory or go to the JTWC's website: https://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html for latest forecast tracks and satellite imagery.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Let me echo Cycloneyes thoughts here Senorpepr...
You are doing a great job informing about the current status of tropical weather around the world! Keep up the good work!

[senorpepr]

Thank you very much! I'll keep it up!

[AussieMark]

IDW10800
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 1:00pm WST on Friday the 6th of February 2004
For the area between LONGITUDES 110 - 129 EAST

There are no significant tropical lows evident in the NW region. However, a weak
low over the Northern Territory is expected to move steadily westwards over the
next few days. The chances of the system developing into a tropical cyclone in
the next three days is low, but there are indications it may subsequently form
into a cyclone off the west Kimberley coast.