Definite signs of El Niño in a couple of months?

[Stormsfury]

Check this out ... that is a BONAFIDE KW (Kelvin Wave) and this will have INTERESTING consequences regarding the Jan 12-14th timeframe and ALSO MAY induce the development of the progged El Niño for 2004 ...

Kelvin Wave - Near a boundary in a rotating system, a Kelvin wave propagates with wave crests perpendicular to the side wall and wave height greatest at the side wall to the right of an observer looking in the direction of wave propagation. The wave height decreases exponentially from the side wall with e-folding length scale equal to the Rossby deformation radius c/f, in which f is the Coriolis parameter and c is the phase speed of the wave in the along boundary direction. In the shallow water approximation the waves are non-dispersive with frequency \omega = +/- c k, in which k is the along boundary wavenumber and the phase speed c = (gH)^(1/2) with g the acceleration of gravity and H the mean fluid depth. Related to Kelvin waves in a channel are Poincare' waves.

1) throw in the mix the arctic air NOW currently infiltrating the US.
2) Increasing PAC storminess

Along with the MJO which is heading east (dry phase) ...

This image also CLEARLY shows the KW ..



More information about the MJO and Kelvin Waves can be found on my website located on this PAGE...

The Kelvin wave COULD have reprecussions on what could finally be an El Niño taking shape in a couple of months or so ...

SF

[FLguy]

yes...and great post too

normally the MJO dry phase is most consistent with El Nino events due in part to the fact that higher pressures are found near indonesia in the western tropical Pacific (ties into the SOI negative phase).

eventhough it can be a great predictor the MJO doesnt guarantee the development of an El Nino.

we would need to see more weakening of the equatorial trade winds and the devleopment of a stronger sub-surface warm pool further east.

[cycloneye]

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/c ... cordxy.gif

I haved noticed that this weekly grafic about ENSO for the next few months has changed from more intense orange and more yellow colors to somewhat less yellow and less intense oranges.Now let's see what impact those kelvin waves may have on this extended forecast.

[weatherlover427]

I noticed an odd feature on this morning's run of the GFS...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 88_m.shtml

and...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_240m.gif

Look especially closely at the first 3 images (240, 252, and 264 hrs). The system heads towards us here in southern California from the south and southwest - NOT USUAL for winter time. Could this be a Kelvin wave??

[Lindaloo]

Okay so what does this mean for the cane season?

[wxman57]

I'm not convinced of any El Nino this coming season. Most models continue to forecast the current neutral conditions will prevail through September:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml

There is some warming in the Pacific now, as there has been since last season, but it's all west of the date line. The water has recently been cooling across the eastern Pacific. On the other hand, long-term oceanographic models are likely less accurate than long-term climatic models, so we'll just have to wait and see. But SSTs now don't look anything like El Nino east of 180 deg.

What does this mean for the 2004 season? Probably very little. Unless there is a very strong El Nino, the Atlantic Basin probably won't be significantly affected, and a strong El Nino looks unlikely at this time.

[Stormsfury]

I'm not convinced of any El Nino this coming season. Most models continue to forecast the current neutral conditions will prevail through September:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml

There is some warming in the Pacific now, as there has been since last season, but it's all west of the date line. The water has recently been cooling across the eastern Pacific. On the other hand, long-term oceanographic models are likely less accurate than long-term climatic models, so we'll just have to wait and see. But SSTs now don't look anything like El Nino east of 180 deg.

What does this mean for the 2004 season? Probably very little. Unless there is a very strong El Nino, the Atlantic Basin probably won't be significantly affected, and a strong El Nino looks unlikely at this time.

I don't see much of any chance of any Strong El Niño, either ... and in fact, my prognostic outlook I released late last year is in serious jeopardy ...

In fact, cool Equatorial anomalies are clearly extending from 135ºW to the coast of South America, while El Niño west regions remain warm ...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=24392


http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=24392

[Anonymous]

Look especially closely at the first 3 images (240, 252, and 264 hrs). The system heads towards us here in southern California from the south and southwest - NOT USUAL for winter time. Could this be a Kelvin wave??

It's nothing significant.

[FLguy]

I'm not convinced of any El Nino this coming season. Most models continue to forecast the current neutral conditions will prevail through September:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml

There is some warming in the Pacific now, as there has been since last season, but it's all west of the date line. The water has recently been cooling across the eastern Pacific. On the other hand, long-term oceanographic models are likely less accurate than long-term climatic models, so we'll just have to wait and see. But SSTs now don't look anything like El Nino east of 180 deg.

What does this mean for the 2004 season? Probably very little. Unless there is a very strong El Nino, the Atlantic Basin probably won't be significantly affected, and a strong El Nino looks unlikely at this time.

I don't see much of any chance of any Strong El Niño, either ... and in fact, my prognostic outlook I released late last year is in serious jeopardy ...

In fact, cool Equatorial anomalies are clearly extending from 135ºW to the coast of South America, while El Niño west regions remain warm ...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=24392


http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=24392

a split is most likely for the time being. but some factors would imply the development of La nina conditions over the next few months.

[FLguy]

we'll deal with those possibilities more in the tropical prelim.