18z GFS -30C in Chicago at 300 hours?????

[Valkhorn]

If the NWS mets are taking the GFS so seriously lately (and goofing), this map should clue you in on why its a little... bonkers... sometimes.



Of course there is the 1 in 100 shot that this will actually happen however I wouldn't hold my breath.

Silly GFS...

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[Valkhorn]

Oh yes, and that would put Chicago at -30 and some change, IF, it ever became true... *laugh*

[sertorius]

True valkhorn-but after the bust here in Lawrence from this storm- I am the rain-snow line and I'm loosing-20 miles west and south of me it is all snow!!-I'll grasp at any straw I can!!! There is still alot of cold air in Canada-hey like I said, the gfs is like a Star Wars movie-need a break from winter busts-look at the gfs at 200-300 hours-it will bring a smile to your face-then at 100 hours, you will have 60's and rain!!!

[Stormsfury]

Ok, here is what's scary.

This has been a consistent depiction of some MAJOR LEAGUE cold for at least 3 runs now and hasn't strayed ... THAT'S MORE SCARY (cause it ain't flip-flopped today in regards to this).

SF

[Guest]

Dont ever scare me like this again! I surely hope that dead center of cold air dont end up where that shows it! Yea right over top of me!

Good point SF. I did notice this yesterday however it is way way out there and as well it is the GFS.

[Valkhorn]

SF, you've got a point. I've been watching them all like a hawk and it has been putting in something huge for the last two days around this timeframe.

However we'll have to wait and see.

[Cumulonimbus]

This I will have to see and believe...the GFS not changing or flip flopping????

The GFS????????????

Come on!

[ALhurricane]

Start getting scared... it's still showing the same thing!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _288.shtml

[Valkhorn]

Yes, it's not worse in Chicago, but it's worse where I live. If that verified Meridian, MS would probably flirt with 5 degrees or maybe even 0.

Sheesh.

[Cumulonimbus]

The GFS has been trying to put a deep trough along the far west coast for weeks and weeks this winter with major arctic cold clear down to northern California only to put in a westerly flow just prior to the event. In fact the GFS has been trying to put a deep trough along the west coast for many winters in a row only to either wipe it out in 12-24 hours or build a ridge instead of a trough. The track record of the GFS-at least along the west coast is a joke with respect to cold air entering the US west of the Cascades or Sierra Nevada mountains.
It is ALWAYS depecting much colder air futher south that in reality never happens.

East of the Rockies is totally different but until the temperatures actually hit the forecast values predicted the GFS should not be believed. Don't worry...it will change I bet.

Alex

[Guest]

Remember people we are talking about the same model that showed me getting a nice snowstorm 5 days ago and well that day is here and now im only looking at some rain to sleet and freezing rain with some snow on the backside with a few inches perhaps.

[Sean in New Orleans]

According to the GFS, 10 days ago I was supposed to have 3 inches of snow today and frigid air---it's fair, and 56F---we'll see about this.

[PTrackerLA]

I've given up on a real arctic outbreak this winter and chances of snow for that matter. This just isn't the year for south Louisiana.

[senorpepr]

I'm just surprised you're listening to a computer model for T+300 hours. Model accuracy is very poor at the 12.5 day point... VERY POOR. It's not too great at the 5day point. Essentially any error in any weather data, let it be upper air obs or surface obs will throw off the computers. It may not be noticable within the first day or so... but these errors become very large at the 12.5 day mark.

[ColdFront77]

Most everyone, if not everyone is aware that forecast models over 5, nevermind 10 days out aren't usually correct... they can be by chance from time to time; but most likely flip-flop a number of times as we move toward that point from the initial data.

[ALhurricane]

I don't think myself, or anybody else that posted, actually took what the GFS was saying seriously. We just pointed out that it was rare for the GFS to say the exact same thing for that far out in 3 consecutive runs.

I spent way too much time in school to believe a 300 hour forecast as straight fact.

[senorpepr]

Maybe I got that impression from the topic name "18z GFS -30C in Chicago at 300 hours?????" I wasn't impling that most people thought it would be that cold in Chicago